'Red state' Republican counties that became Democratic ones
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  'Red state' Republican counties that became Democratic ones
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Author Topic: 'Red state' Republican counties that became Democratic ones  (Read 1616 times)
soniquemd21921
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« on: November 19, 2012, 10:12:31 PM »

Douglas County, Kansas (Lawrence) - Home of the University of Kansas, it never voted for a Democrat from statehood until 1964, yet today it's arguably the most liberal county in the state (excluding Wyandotte).

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freepcrusher
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« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2012, 10:27:33 PM »

Teton County, Wyoming was a very republican county until about 10-20 years ago. If I recall, its also the wealthiest county in the state.
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5280
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« Reply #2 on: November 19, 2012, 10:34:36 PM »
« Edited: November 19, 2012, 10:38:20 PM by 5280 »

Dallas, Harris, Bexar and Travis counties in Texas.  They all voted for Bush in 2000/2004 except Travis county, then Obama won them all in his first term. Coconino and Pima counties in Arizona started to trend Democrat after the '88 election won by Bush I.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2022, 09:52:22 AM »
« Edited: February 23, 2022, 09:05:27 AM by Calthrina950 »

Alabama: Jefferson County, which did not vote Democratic at all from 1956-2004, and was among the first counties in the state to turn to the Republicans. Obama in 2008 was the first Democrat since Stevenson to win it.

Georgia: Cobb, Gwinnett, and Henry Counties, which last voted Democratic in 1976 or 1980 prior to going for Clinton in 2016, and which were among the most Republican counties in Georgia during the 1980s and 1990s. Now, they are solidly Democratic.

South Carolina: Charleston County, where Obama in 2008 was the first Democrat to win since Carter in 1976, and one of only two Democrats at the time to win the county since 1944. Now, it is solidly Democratic, with Biden having the best performance of any Democrat there since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944.

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Roll Roons
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« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2022, 10:13:38 AM »

Douglas County, NE (Omaha), though it's still not overwhelmingly blue.

Oklahoma County, OK (OKC) is another. It hasn't actually gone blue at the presidential level yet, but Trump only won it by one point and it could very well flip in 2024.
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Torie
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« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2022, 10:46:26 AM »

Orange County, CA.
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TML
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« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2022, 10:53:28 AM »

Gallatin, MT - in 2008, Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win this county since FDR in 1944. Since then, the only Republican presidential candidate to win it was Romney in 2012, and Republicans last won any down ballot races here in 2016.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2022, 10:55:21 AM »

I'm old enough to remember when Mecklenburg County, NC produced conservative culture war battles.

https://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/22/us/play-displays-a-growing-city-s-cultural-tensions.html

It was never a super-red county but, like a lot of fast-growing white collar southern cities, it was more Republican than the state as a whole through the second half of the 1900s.
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thebeloitmoderate
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« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2022, 11:00:33 AM »

St Louis City MO always been since the New Deal coalition in the 1930s, St Louis County on the other hand last voted R in 1988 and since then it has been blue. South County though is less college educated and more whiter than west and north county
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2022, 12:46:54 PM »

Johnson, KS (suburban Kansas City) voted for Joe Biden after not voting for any Democrat since Woodrow Wilson (though FDR '32 only lost here by 2 votes)

Maricopa, AZ voted for Joe Biden after not voting for any Democrat since Harry Truman

The Chicago collar counties fit in here as well, even though back when they were red, IL was a purple state
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #10 on: February 21, 2022, 12:51:33 PM »

Also Loudoun, Fairfax, and Prince William's counties in VA, as well as the Denver suburbs, San Diego, CA. Washington, AR is in the process of turning into one.
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Unelectable Bystander
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« Reply #11 on: February 21, 2022, 01:22:55 PM »

The vast majority of these are counties that house a somewhat major city. Does anybody have any data on whether these flips are always a net positive for Dems in the context of the greater metro? For example, Cobb/Gwinnett etc certainly are because the entire ATL metro is moving left. Are any of these cases where Dems are flipping the county but not actually netting more votes due to offsetting migration?

One possible example that come to mind is DFW last decade. Right when Dallas county flipped, it looked like part of the reason was that republicans were just moving further out towards Denton and Collin, and thus netting more votes there. Maybe another one would be the Detroit suburbs flipping due to minority migration from Detroit itself, which is in turn shrinking. But I don’t have data to say those are conclusively true.

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At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder
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« Reply #12 on: February 21, 2022, 01:57:05 PM »

Fayette Co, KY pretty much has the voting pattern of Loudoun Co, VA (usually with more muted margins) and it's home to the University of Kentucky. It's basically a big suburb without much of an inner city like Louisville.
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Sol
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« Reply #13 on: February 21, 2022, 03:05:40 PM »

This pattern is pretty typical of southern urban counties.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #14 on: February 21, 2022, 04:57:31 PM »

Maricopa County, AZ. Tarrant County, TX is becoming one.
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Smash255
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« Reply #15 on: February 22, 2022, 11:13:13 AM »

The vast majority of these are counties that house a somewhat major city. Does anybody have any data on whether these flips are always a net positive for Dems in the context of the greater metro? For example, Cobb/Gwinnett etc certainly are because the entire ATL metro is moving left. Are any of these cases where Dems are flipping the county but not actually netting more votes due to offsetting migration?

One possible example that come to mind is DFW last decade. Right when Dallas county flipped, it looked like part of the reason was that republicans were just moving further out towards Denton and Collin, and thus netting more votes there. Maybe another one would be the Detroit suburbs flipping due to minority migration from Detroit itself, which is in turn shrinking. But I don’t have data to say those are conclusively true.




While still Republican, Denton and Collin are absolutely flying Democratic as well.  They both went to Romney by identical 31.5% margins.   Bush also won both by over 40% in 2004.   Trump won Denton by 8.1% and Coliln by 4.6% in 2020.
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #16 on: February 22, 2022, 12:28:58 PM »

The vast majority of these are counties that house a somewhat major city. Does anybody have any data on whether these flips are always a net positive for Dems in the context of the greater metro? For example, Cobb/Gwinnett etc certainly are because the entire ATL metro is moving left. Are any of these cases where Dems are flipping the county but not actually netting more votes due to offsetting migration?

One possible example that come to mind is DFW last decade. Right when Dallas county flipped, it looked like part of the reason was that republicans were just moving further out towards Denton and Collin, and thus netting more votes there. Maybe another one would be the Detroit suburbs flipping due to minority migration from Detroit itself, which is in turn shrinking. But I don’t have data to say those are conclusively true.




While still Republican, Denton and Collin are absolutely flying Democratic as well.  They both went to Romney by identical 31.5% margins.   Bush also won both by over 40% in 2004.   Trump won Denton by 8.1% and Coliln by 4.6% in 2020.

The original comment said "right when." Denton and Collin weren't flying left until Trump.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #17 on: February 23, 2022, 02:22:32 AM »

OREGON:

Benton and Washington County spring to mind immediately.

Both Yankee Republican strongholds since Oregon first became a State, which ended up flipping hard within the past 30 years.

Reagan in '84 won some pretty decisive margins in the wealthier North Corvallis precincts in Benton County, as well as doing pretty well in precincts along "Frat Row".

Washington County was something like 57-43 Bush Sr in '88 if my memory is correct, and that's well before the county had become overwhelmingly suburban.

The Reagan-Bush brand of Republicanism basically caused the death of the Republican Party in Oregon as a "Statewide Brand", and although their might be a couple Oregon avatars that want to resurrect the past days of glory, this is but a simple fact, regardless of the attempts to polarize the "Timber Wars" to create strategic advantage in "Downstate Oregon".

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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #18 on: February 23, 2022, 08:54:52 AM »


You mean Jefferson County?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #19 on: February 23, 2022, 09:04:29 AM »


Yes, I do. I thought I had fixed that mistake.
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chalmetteowl
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« Reply #20 on: February 28, 2022, 11:14:31 PM »

10 years from now: Jefferson and St Bernard Parish, LA
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