New Thoughts on Future Party Coalitions in 20 years?

[Skill and Chance]

In light of the past several elections, I can envision something like this:

Movement in the Southwest stalls out, but the Democrats hold their gains.  Sometime during 2016-24, the next winning Republican breaks through in the Rust Belt.  Appalachia and New England seem pretty ironclad at this point so I don't think either party will try to rebuild the Clinton or Rockefeller coalitions.  On the other hand, demographic change finally catches up with Deep South conservatives, and Florida is never anything other than swingy.

[Frodo]

Texas doesn't become a swing state by 2030?  Not even Arizona? 

[Penelope]

The election of 2020 sees a democratic incumbent defeated by a moderate Republican, who sweeps states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania much like Barack Obama swept Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina. This moderate Republican is able to appeal to minorities, and as such, performs much better in the southwest than his predecessors.

The south west is much like the rust belt of today. It's a swing region, but leans towards the Democrats as a whole. Arizona and Texas are just barely out of Democratic reach at this point and are both almost always "Lean Republican" states in Presidential elections.

Meanwhile, much of the progress in the Atlantic South that the Obama coalition brought has been dismantled. NC has been brought back into Republican territory, and is not contested much. Georgia and South Carolina are back to being "Safe Republican" in every election. Florida, as always, is still competitive, however.

The rust belt is a true tossup region, and most elections are fought in Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. By the 2020s, the region is trending Republican. A Republican who isn't able to win Iowa or Wisconsin would have major obstacles in getting elected. MN & IL are closer than today, but are still considered at least "Lean Democratic".

By 2023, the map looks like this:

[Skill and Chance]

Texas doesn't become a swing state by 2030?  Not even Arizona? 

Too much oil and gas in Texas, and the state GOP also knows how to reach out to Hispanic voters in a way almost no one else can.  AZ seems overrated as a potential swing state, although there are some encouraging signs for Democrats downballot there.  Basically, I am expecting the GOP to wise up and start running libertarian, pro-immigration candidates in 2016-20, which stops the bleeding in the SW, although CO and especially NV are probably gone at this point.. 

[DC Al Fine]

Texas doesn't become a swing state by 2030?  Not even Arizona? 

Too much oil and gas in Texas, and the state GOP also knows how to reach out to Hispanic voters in a way almost no one else can.  AZ seems overrated as a potential swing state, although there are some encouraging signs for Democrats downballot there.  Basically, I am expecting the GOP to wise up and start running libertarian, pro-immigration candidates in 2016-20, which stops the bleeding in the SW, although CO and especially NV are probably gone at this point.. 

So do you have anti immigration types & socons going Democrat?

[Skill and Chance]

Texas doesn't become a swing state by 2030?  Not even Arizona? 

Too much oil and gas in Texas, and the state GOP also knows how to reach out to Hispanic voters in a way almost no one else can.  AZ seems overrated as a potential swing state, although there are some encouraging signs for Democrats downballot there.  Basically, I am expecting the GOP to wise up and start running libertarian, pro-immigration candidates in 2016-20, which stops the bleeding in the SW, although CO and especially NV are probably gone at this point.. 

So do you have anti immigration types & socons going Democrat?

I have them swinging a bit in non-coal country and turnout dropping.  See the Deep South.

[Yelnoc]

Sample Republican victory in 2032. (colors denote margins of victory)

Republicans are still the socially conservative party (on economics the two parties continue to have no meaningful distinction; I assume the Republicans have dropped the hostage-taking style of politics when it comes to taxes and spending). They've picked up hispanic voters, while the white vote has changed. White voters in Appalachia and the plains/mountain west states continue to vote Republican in higher and higher numbers, but whites in urban areas are trending more and Democratic, aiding the Democratic success in the sunbelt.

[Mehmentum]

I've been thinking about this quite a bit.

This is a narrow Democratic victory with today's EVs but in 20 years would be a narrow Republican victory.

The GOP eventually gets its act together, when exactly doesn't matter.  Latinos go back to voting 40/60 or something like that.  This almost exactly balances out with Latino population growth to make the west essentially stagnant.  Arizona is now the Republican's equivelent of Pennsylvania today.

The Republicans make gains in the midwest, solidifying Ohio, making Michigan a pretty solid bet for them, and most surprising, making Illinios a lean R state.  The trio of Iowa, Minnesotta, and Wisconsin stay in the D column together.   Those three states have voted for the Democrats in every election since Reagan's landslides (the sole exception is Iowa in 2004).

The Democrats coninue to creep down the east coast.  North Carolina will be at the national average next year, Georgia will be next, and then finally South Carolina. Florida will still be a slightly R leaning swing state.  The Republican's recovery among latinos will balance out any pro- democratic trends it has.

Alaska will be the next Vermont (and don't even let me get started about Vermont).

New Hampshire will be a lost cause for Republicans, though they will contest New Jersey heavily. Democrats will still win Michigan, Illinios, Pennsylvania, Florida and even Ohio in a good election year, same goes for Republicans with Georgia, South Carolina, Colorado, Iowa and perhaps North Carolina.  I think Virginia will be solidly D by then.  

So this is a good Democratic year.

And this is a good Republican year.

 

[Rainbow_Crown]

Illinois is not going to go Republican in the next 20 years. Obama won it by 20 points and Chicagoland is 3/4 of the state and is still trending slightly Dem. The only parts going red are those outside Chicago MSA and at the end of the day the closest the state comes for Republicans would still be a 10 point loss for them.

Here's what I would change from 2012 by 2032

States going from Republican to Democratic on a regular basis:
Arizona
Florida
Georgia
North Carolina

States going from Democratic to Republican on a regular basis:
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

[Sol]

I've been thinking about this quite a bit.

This is a narrow Democratic victory with today's EVs but in 20 years would be a narrow Republican victory.

The GOP eventually gets its act together, when exactly doesn't matter.  Latinos go back to voting 40/60 or something like that.  This almost exactly balances out with Latino population growth to make the west essentially stagnant.  Arizona is now the Republican's equivelent of Pennsylvania today.

The Republicans make gains in the midwest, solidifying Ohio, making Michigan a pretty solid bet for them, and most surprising, making Illinios a lean R state.  The trio of Iowa, Minnesotta, and Wisconsin stay in the D column together.   Those three states have voted for the Democrats in every election since Reagan's landslides (the sole exception is Iowa in 2004).

The Democrats coninue to creep down the east coast.  North Carolina will be at the national average next year, Georgia will be next, and then finally South Carolina. Florida will still be a slightly R leaning swing state.  The Republican's recovery among latinos will balance out any pro- democratic trends it has.

Alaska will be the next Vermont (and don't even let me get started about Vermont).

New Hampshire will be a lost cause for Republicans, though they will contest New Jersey heavily. Democrats will still win Michigan, Illinios, Pennsylvania, Florida and even Ohio in a good election year, same goes for Republicans with Georgia, South Carolina, Colorado, Iowa and perhaps North Carolina.  I think Virginia will be solidly D by then.  

So this is a good Democratic year.

And this is a good Republican year.

 

You have essentially what I think will happen, except I would switch Illinois and Wisconsin.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Two possibilities for ~2030:

1. The current trends continue indefinitely towards the GOP becoming a "white man's party", but they're able to start winning elections again by invading the Midwest and making some gains with Latinos as they integrate into white America. The Democrats dominate the coasts and not much else running on social progressivism and steadily moving right on economic issues, and the GOP runs the interior and never abandons social conservatism/economic corporatism.

2. Though it will take some time, the Democrats eventually move back to the left on economic issues, building a coalition of blacks and working class whites and Latinos. The Republicans pick up some Latinos, but their big gains are with white postgrads and Asians; the GOP becomes a more intellectual/market liberal party. Though the South is still by and large Republican, it's fast shifting, and California is on the cusp of becoming a battleground.

[5280]

As of now, the GOP is trying to avoid option 1, so option 2 looks more promising.

[LastVoter]

As of now, the GOP is trying to avoid option 1, so option 2 looks more promising.

Right now GOP is on life support.

[Mechaman]

As of now, the GOP is trying to avoid option 1, so option 2 looks more promising.

Right now GOP is on life support.

A party with a majority in the US House of Representatives is on life support?

No, right now the Republican Party has constipation or some sh*t.  After a doctor's visit and a day or two of rest, the party will likely recover.

Unless they disregard the Doctor's orders that is.

[politicus]

As of now, the GOP is trying to avoid option 1, so option 2 looks more promising.

Right now GOP is on life support.

A party with a majority in the US House of Representatives is on life support?

No, right now the Republican Party has constipation or some sh*t.  After a doctor's visit and a day or two of rest, the party will likely recover.

Unless they disregard the Doctor's orders that is.

Which is not entirely unlikely given the sentiments of its base and some of its major donors.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

My map.  The darker the colors, the stronger the lean.  This (the current electoral map) will stay in place until a major realignment comes along (the end of the Clinton coalition, and Republicans doing a better job of communicating their message to voters.)  Granted, the number of electoral votes will change over time, but this is using current numbers.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

The only thing I will say about my map is that eventually, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia (as well as possible Nevada) may (but not necessarily will) switch from Toss-up to Lean Dem, Arizona may switch from Lean GOP to Toss-up (but likely not), and, if Republicans continue their 2010 success in Maine (also unlikely), it shifts from Strong Dem to Lean Dem or even Toss-up.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Something like that, I'd say.

[TNF]

Parties realign around economic issues after the Republicans accept same-sex marriage and abortion rights in the 2020s. The GOP of 2032 is ideologically where the DLC Democrats were in the 1990s, and the Democrats are to their left, standing about where the pre-Carter Democratic Party was in the late 1960s.

The South becomes more receptive to the Democrats in large part thanks to Democratic economic policy and an emphasis on integrating black, white, and brown working class voters under a single umbrella. The Republicans gradually pick off wealthier minority voters and white professionals, while the Democrats gain with a reinvigorated union movement in the South and Latino voters.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

You sure about SC being more Democratic than its neighbors? It's less reliant on manufacturing and has a greater military presence (plus the coast is very wealthy).

West Virginia will be interesting to watch. I'll assume that this is the Democratic floor, and though it will be Safe R in 2016 (barring Hillary being the Democrat and/or a Bachmann or Palin being the GOP nominee), the coal industry is kicking and screaming right now (which is what the big swing in coal country came from) just like tobacco did in the 90's (hence why Clinton did fairly poorly in VA/NC) and why the Great Plains had a giant Democratic shift in 1988. As coal dies off (and maybe if retirees get attracted to the Appalachians), maybe WV will come back home.

[TNF]

You sure about SC being more Democratic than its neighbors? It's less reliant on manufacturing and has a greater military presence (plus the coast is very wealthy).

West Virginia will be interesting to watch. I'll assume that this is the Democratic floor, and though it will be Safe R in 2016 (barring Hillary being the Democrat and/or a Bachmann or Palin being the GOP nominee), the coal industry is kicking and screaming right now (which is what the big swing in coal country came from) just like tobacco did in the 90's (hence why Clinton did fairly poorly in VA/NC) and why the Great Plains had a giant Democratic shift in 1988. As coal dies off (and maybe if retirees get attracted to the Appalachians), maybe WV will come back home.

One can hope. I put SC and MS as lean Dem largely because of demographics. Honestly, if WV goes back to the Democrats, I can't imagine a scenario where Kentucky doesn't, too. We have basically the same demographics and neither state is right-to-work-for-less.

It should also be interesting to see how Arkansas trends if the Democrats become economic populists and the Republicans proper neoliberals.