States closest to the national result

[minionofmidas]

2004
1 Nevada
2 Ohio
3 new Mexico
4 Iowa
5 Colorado

2000
1 Oregon
2 Iowa
3 Wisconsin
4 New Mexico
5 Florida

1996
1 Oregon
2 Pennsylvania
3 New Mexico
4 New Hampshire
5 Wisconsin

1992
1 Iowa
2 Connecticut
3 Tennessee
4 Louisiana
5 Wisconsin

1988
1 Colorado
2 Michigan
3 South Dakota
4 Montana
5 Louisiana

1984
1 Ohio
2 Michigan
3 Vermont
4 Delaware
5 Missouri

1980
1 Oregon
2 Connecticut
3 Ohio
4 Illinois
5 Washington

1976
1 Mississippi
2 Wisconsin
3 Hawaii
4 Pennsylvania
5 Texas

1972
1 Maine
2 Alaska
3 Maryland
4 New Mexico
5 Missouri

I'm going by national PV winning candidate's margin of victory over whoever placed second in a state, or national PV winning candidate's distance to whoever placed first.

[minionofmidas]

1968
1 Missouri
2 New Jersey
3 Ohio
4 Alaska
5 Texas

1964
1 Delaware
2 Colorado
3 Iowa
4 Wisconsin
5 Washington

1960
1 Illinois
2 Hawaii
3 Missouri
4 New Mexico
5 New Jersey

1956
1 Nevada
2 New Mexico
3 Florida
4 Rhode island
5 Montana

1952
1 New Mexico
2 Minnesota
3 Michigan
4 Maryland
5 Florida

1948
1 Wisconsin
2 Wyoming
3 Colorado
4 Nevada
5 Iowa

[minionofmidas]

1944
1 New Mexico
2 Delaware
3 Massachusetts
4 Kentucky
5 Nevada

1940
1 Delaware
2 Idaho
3 oregon
4 Connecticut
5 Pennsylvania

1936
1 Colorado
2 Maryland
3 Wyoming
4 Missouri
5 New Mexico

1932
1 Iowa
2 Kentucky
3 utah
4 Wyoming
5 Idaho

1928
1 West Virginia
2 New Hampshire
3 Montana
4 Minnesota
5 Florida

1924
1 new Hampshire
2 California
3 oregon
4 New York
5 Iowa.
LaFollette polled second in CA, OR, and IA, though.

1920
1 Oregon
2 Colorado
3 Montana
4 Connecticut
5 Rhode Island

1916
1 New Mexico
2 Missouri
3 Washington
4 North Dakota
5 Kentucky

1912
1 Nebraska
2 Arizona
3 Ohio
4 Delaware
5 Colorado
Taft was second in Ohio and Delaware, though.

[minionofmidas]

1908
1 Kansas
2 West Virginia
3 Ohio
4 Delaware
5 New York

1904
1 new jersey
2 Connecticut
3 Montana
4 Massachusetts
5 New Hampshire

1900
1 Kansas
2 Ohio
3 Maryland
4 Indiana
5 Illinois

1896
1 Ohio
2 West Virginia
3 Indiana
4 Oregon
5 California

1892
1 Illinois
2 Connecticut
3 New York
4 West Virginia
5 Wisconsin

[Notre Dame rules!]

Hmmm... Where are you going with this?

[minionofmidas]

Probably nowhere. Going further back would be much more work (basically, back to 1892, Dave has already done much of the work for me.)

Looking these over, I notice there's a number of Southern states who have never been close to the national average.

States' last mention / no. of mentions since 1960
Maine 72 / 1
New Hampshire 96 / 1
Vermont 84 / 1
Massachusetts 44 / 0
Rhode Island 56 / 0
Connecticut 80 / 2
New York 24 / 0
New Jersey 68 / 2
Pennsylvania 96 / 2

[minionofmidas]

Ohio 2004 / 4
Indiana 1900 / 0
Illinois 80 / 2
Michigan 84 / 2
Wisconsin 2000 / 5
Minnesota 52 / 0
Iowa 2004 / 4
Missouri 84 / 4
North Dakota 16 / 0
South Dakota 88 / 1
Nebraska 12 / 0
Kansas 08 / 0
Delaware 84 / 2
Maryland 72 / 1
D.C. never
Virginia never
West Virginia 28 / 0
North Carolina never
South Carolina never
Georgia never
Florida 2000 / 1

[minionofmidas]

Kentucky 44 / 0
Tennessee 92 / 1
Alabama never
Mississippi 76 / 1
Arkansas never
Louisiana 92 / 2
Oklahoma never
Texas 76 / 2
Montana 88 / 1
Idaho 32 / 0
Wyoming 48 / 0
Colorado 2004 / 3
New Mexico 2004 / 5
Arizona 12 / 0
Utah 32 / 0
Nevada 2004 / 1
Washington 80 / 2
Oregon 2000 / 3
California 24 / 0
Alaska 72 / 2
Hawaii 76 / 2

...although I don't know if it means anything.

[Rob]

Interesting that Oregon has so often been a bellwether.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Regarding the South. 

The South tends to have few moderates.   At one time, we were a Democrat bastion.  Now we are largely a Republican one.


That's why I find it somewhat laughable that many on this site see it likely that the Dems can pick off several Southern states by running a Mid-Western moderate.  I seriously doubt this is possible.   We will vote for a moderate Southerner, provided the economy is dragging down the incumbent Republican (1992), but Clinton was the first Dem to challenge GOP supremacy in the South since 1976. 

Likewise, it is difficult to see how the GOP is going to cherry pick states away from the Dems in their Northeastern bastion, another region with few moderates.

[muon2]

New Mexico looks like the champion bellwether of late, IMO. Its been on the top five for each of the last three elections, and on 5 since 1960.

Is there a county in NM that best mirrors its statewide results?

[skybridge]

I know this is a bit off-topic but on electio night someone pointed out that TN was the state that voted with the winner nearly everytime in the last hundred years. The notable exception would be 1960.

[Platypus]

I believe that was Missouri or Delaware, actually.

[minionofmidas]

Missouri has voted with the winner every time since 1960.
Tennessee is one of several states to have voted for the winner every time since 1964. The last time before 1960 that it went with the loser was 1924. From 1876-1908 though, it was part of the Solid Dem South and voted for the winner only when he was called Grover Cleveland.

[muon2]

New Mexico looks like the champion bellwether of late, IMO. Its been on the top five for each of the last three elections, and on 5 since 1960.

Is there a county in NM that best mirrors its statewide results?

Sandoval, NM is looking pretty good. (national in parenthesis)
Bush 50.8-48.1 in 2004 (50.7-48.3)
Bush 48.6-46.9 in 2000 (47.9-48.4)
Clinton 49.5-41.6 in 1996 (49.2-40.7)
Clinton 46.4-36.0 in 1992 (43.0-37.4)

Unfortunately Sandoval called a virtual tie in 1988.

[jimrtex]

Probably nowhere. Going further back would be much more work (basically, back to 1892, Dave has already done much of the work for me.)

1888
1. VA
2 WV
3. CT
4. IN
5. NJ

1884
1. NY
2. CT
3. IN
4. NJ
5. VA

1880
1. CA
2. NJ
3. IN
4. OR
5. NY

1876
1. NY
2. CT
3. IN
4. NJ
5. SC

1872
1. LA
2. IL
3. WI
4. CA
5. NV

1868
1. PA
2. NC
3. AR
4. CT
5. IN

Indiana is on 5 of 6 lists
New Jersey is on 4 of 6
Connecticut is on 4 of 6
New York is on 3 of 6