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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Did Obama win any European ethnicities
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Author Topic: Did Obama win any European ethnicities  (Read 2129 times)
mileslunn
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« on: November 18, 2012, 10:31:44 pm »

I know Romney won the white vote by 20%, but I wonder if you broke it down by ethnicity if Obama would have won any of them.  Here is my thinking

Possible but probably not - Norwegian, Swedish, and Finnish (I know he didn't win the Danish of the Scandinavians but it seems he did well in areas the other three are large), Polish, Czechs, Slovaks, Italians, and French.  Belgians and Austrians are possibilities although due to limited data tough to say.

Amongst those from Southern and Eastern Europe, most are in blue states, but Romney did win the white vote in most of those although I believe the Democrats have traditionally done well amongst those groups.  The French is kind of tough as in Louisiana I am sure it went heavily Republican, but in the New England states I suspect Obama won that group.

Likely won: Russians (most are Jewish), Hungarians (high number of Jewish and mostly in urban areas), Southeastern Europeans (asides from the Slovenians and even that he may have won, most came in the last 50 years and in largely in the big cities), Portuguese (Most are in Hawaii, California, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts and Obama won the white vote in 3 of the 4 states mentioned), Greeks (Usually in big cities like Chicago, New York, Boston, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles and few in the rural areas), Spanish (they are counted as Hispanic anyways I believe); and Middle Eastern (Turkish, Arab, and Iranian which in most countries are counted as minorities rather than white, but I think I saw a poll showing 60-70% of them went Democrat).

Lost: Danish, Germans, Dutch, English, Welsh, Scottish, Scots-Irish, Irish, and Swiss

Those groups are mostly in heavily Republican areas in anyways.  Danish include a large number of Mormons; Germans are probably close to the white average as not many in the South where Obama did worst amongst whites but no many either in New England where he did best.  I am guessing it was a 60-40 amongst them.  Dutch are quite rural and in the case of Michigan and Iowa the areas where they settled the most heavily went mostly heavily GOP.  English are strongest in New England, Mormon areas of the Mountain West and the South so 2 of the 3 are staunchly GOP while only one favours the Dems  Scots-Irish if I had to guess were probably the group that went most massively Republican of all white groups.  Irish may have historically favoured the Democrats and it is true some centers where they are most noticeable like Chicago and Boston still go Democrat, but considering how they are over 5% pretty much everywhere in the US I find it hard to believe Romney didn't win here.

Off course nowadays ethnicity doesn't matter but still location of where they settled has an impact as well as 80% of children vote the same way as their parents.
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memphis
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« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2012, 10:59:27 pm »

It's been four generations since we've had substantial European immigration. In most cases the various European groups are so thoroughly interbred that there's not much case for classifying them individually.
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Seattle
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« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2012, 11:37:38 pm »

I'm pretty sure of the recent European immigrants, Bosnians voted for Obama... Though I have no numbers to back that up.
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Benj
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« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2012, 11:40:21 pm »
« Edited: November 18, 2012, 11:43:37 pm by Benj »

I'm almost certain Obama won people of Scottish ancestry. It's the wealthiest ancestry group in the country, but they're heavily concentrated in New England and the rich-liberal parts of the NYC area.

OTOH, I seriously doubt Obama won Hungarians. True, most Hungarians in the US are Jews, but they're heavily Hasidic Jews, who vote overwhelmingly Republican in Presidential elections (like 90% McCain, probably similar for Romney). I don't think there are that many Reform or Conservative Jews from Hungary, and those are the Jewish groups that vote Democratic (plus Orthodox Jews outside of the NYC area).

There are very few self-IDed people of English ancestry in the South. It's basically New England (+upstate NY) and the Mormons. I think New England English would outvote the Mormons, but it's hard to say for certain.

I'm pretty sure of the recent European immigrants, Bosnians voted for Obama... Though I have no numbers to back that up.

They're Muslims. It would be shocking if they weren't at least 75% Obama, given recent trends.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #4 on: November 18, 2012, 11:43:37 pm »

I also wonder how Obama did amongst whites born outside the US.  In Canada and Europe the population overwhelmingly wanted Obama to win yet many from those countries tend to assimilate fairly quickly especially if they come from an English speaking country or came as a child.  My guess is Obama did better amongst Whites born outside of the US than born in the US, but I don't think it would have been nearly as lopsided as the polls in their home countries were for who they wanted to win.  After all I know anicdotally there were several Canadians living in the US who voted for Romney despite the fact only 10% in Canada wanted Romney to win.

As for the Bosnians, I believe most are Muslim as well so that probably would explain them going for Obama as the GOP are pretty unpopular amongst Muslims regardless of where they come from.  Not because Obama is Muslim (as most Muslims know he is not) but rather Islamophobia is quite rampant in the GOP so it would be pretty tough to vote for a party that is anti-Islam if you were a Muslim.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2012, 11:47:25 pm »

I'm almost certain Obama won people of Scottish ancestry. It's the wealthiest ancestry group in the country, but they're heavily concentrated in New England and the rich-liberal parts of the NYC area.

OTOH, I seriously doubt Obama won Hungarians. True, most Hungarians in the US are Jews, but they're heavily Hasidic Jews, who vote overwhelmingly Republican in Presidential elections (like 90% McCain, probably similar for Romney). I don't think there are that many Reform or Conservative Jews from Hungary, and those are the Jewish groups that vote Democratic (plus Orthodox Jews outside of the NYC area).

There are very few self-IDed people of English ancestry in the South. It's basically New England (+upstate NY) and the Mormons. I think New England English would outvote the Mormons, but it's hard to say for certain.

I'm pretty sure of the recent European immigrants, Bosnians voted for Obama... Though I have no numbers to back that up.

They're Muslims. It would be shocking if they weren't at least 75% Obama, given recent trends.

It is true New England has the highest number of people of Scottish ancestry much like English thus Obama would win there, but I think the Mormon states are quite high as well as in the South it is above the national average and considering the GOP wins amongst the whites are much larger 80-20 or 75-25 as opposed to 60-40 than the South, I am pretty sure Romney won those of Scottish ancestry never mind pretty much everywhere in the US has at least 1-2% of Scottish ancestry.  I guess if you go by self-identified you might be right as many in the South identify as "American" as opposed to Scottish and in the Midwest most probably have some German, English, Irish or some other ancestry that makes up a greater part of their heritage and thus identify with that group.
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Seattle
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« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2012, 04:43:03 am »

As for the Bosnians, I believe most are Muslim as well so that probably would explain them going for Obama as the GOP are pretty unpopular amongst Muslims regardless of where they come from.  Not because Obama is Muslim (as most Muslims know he is not) but rather Islamophobia is quite rampant in the GOP so it would be pretty tough to vote for a party that is anti-Islam if you were a Muslim.

Only about 40% of Bosnians are Muslims. I think most in America are actually atheists (another very pro-Obama group). If they're not Muslim or atheist, they're probably Catholic.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #7 on: November 19, 2012, 05:10:49 pm »

Based on the result in Luzerne, Obama may have won Poles.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #8 on: November 19, 2012, 08:37:54 pm »


You might be right as for a lot of the Southern and Eastern European groups they tended to settle heavily in the metropolitan areas or smaller urban centres of the Great Lakes and Northeast and while Romney won the white vote in those areas; the counties they are largest in tend to have sizeable minority communities making it somewhat difficult to gage.  I know based on distribution Romney for sure won the Danish, German, Dutch, English, Scottish, Scots-Irish, and Irish.  As for Obama the only ones I am pretty confident he won are the Portuguese, Greeks, Arabs, Persians, Spanish, Russians, and Turkish.  The Norwegians, Swedish, Finnish, Polish, French, Belgians, Welsh, Italians, Slovaks, Czechs, Hungarians, and Slovenians based on distribution are tough to tell although I suspect he narrowly won many of them in 2008 and narrowly lost most in 2012. 

Off course I also wonder as a side note what Obama's white vote outside the South was as although I still think Romney won it, I suspect the margin was much narrower and in the South most generally are English, Scots-Irish, or "American".  Likewise a lot of European groups are mixed ancestry anyways as there hasn't been that much immigration from Europe in recent years.  Its not like the 30s when there were certain groups like the Irish, Polish and Italians that went heavily Democrat while the GOP won heavily amongst the Germans and English.  I've heard though some Republicans are hoping Latinos will follow the path of the Irish and Italians, otherwise start voting the way the rest of the country does once they are second and third generation rather than massively Democrat like they do now.  The problem is if they wait that long, the GOP maybe irrelevant. 
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2012, 09:17:32 pm »

As for the Bosnians, I believe most are Muslim as well so that probably would explain them going for Obama as the GOP are pretty unpopular amongst Muslims regardless of where they come from.  Not because Obama is Muslim (as most Muslims know he is not) but rather Islamophobia is quite rampant in the GOP so it would be pretty tough to vote for a party that is anti-Islam if you were a Muslim.

Only about 40% of Bosnians are Muslims. I think most in America are actually atheists (another very pro-Obama group). If they're not Muslim or atheist, they're probably Catholic.

Do you mean Bosnians or Bosniaks?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #10 on: November 19, 2012, 09:21:27 pm »

Anyways, the obvious answer is Ashkenazim.
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Seattle
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« Reply #11 on: November 20, 2012, 12:15:37 am »

As for the Bosnians, I believe most are Muslim as well so that probably would explain them going for Obama as the GOP are pretty unpopular amongst Muslims regardless of where they come from.  Not because Obama is Muslim (as most Muslims know he is not) but rather Islamophobia is quite rampant in the GOP so it would be pretty tough to vote for a party that is anti-Islam if you were a Muslim.

Only about 40% of Bosnians are Muslims. I think most in America are actually atheists (another very pro-Obama group). If they're not Muslim or atheist, they're probably Catholic.

Do you mean Bosnians or Bosniaks?
No, I mean Bosnians. Bosniaks are muslim (ethnic) Bosnians.
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dspNY
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« Reply #12 on: November 20, 2012, 12:23:15 am »

Jews of European descent, certainly (Obama won Jews overall 70-30), and almost all American Jews came off the boat from somewhere in Europe
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Benj
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« Reply #13 on: November 20, 2012, 12:55:50 pm »
« Edited: November 20, 2012, 01:01:42 pm by Benj »

As for the Bosnians, I believe most are Muslim as well so that probably would explain them going for Obama as the GOP are pretty unpopular amongst Muslims regardless of where they come from.  Not because Obama is Muslim (as most Muslims know he is not) but rather Islamophobia is quite rampant in the GOP so it would be pretty tough to vote for a party that is anti-Islam if you were a Muslim.

Only about 40% of Bosnians are Muslims. I think most in America are actually atheists (another very pro-Obama group). If they're not Muslim or atheist, they're probably Catholic.

That's not how residents of Bosnia identify. If you're Muslim, you're a Bosnian/Bosniak. If you're Catholic, you're a Croat, even if you live in Bosnia. If you're Orthodox, you're a Serb, even if you live in Bosnia.

This is because the Bosniak/Croat/Serb distinction is not ethnic at all; they're all ethnically indistinguishable. The distinctions are entirely religious. (Of course, in modern times they think of themselves as ethnically distinct, but those distinctions are of recent vintage and drawn entirely on religious grounds.)

Yes, we could use "Bosnian" to refer generically to everyone from the political entity of Bosnia and "Bosniak" to refer only to Muslim Bosnians. But Catholic Bosnians would call themselves Croats, and Orthodox Bosnians would call themselves Serbs, so you'd be left with only Bosniaks calling themselves Bosnians anyway. I guarantee you that at least 85% of all self-identified Bosnians in the US are Muslim. (Or atheist, I suppose--that's an entirely different issue. But still only those of Muslim heritage/background would call themselves Bosnian, even if they're non-religious these days.)
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mileslunn
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« Reply #14 on: November 20, 2012, 11:10:56 pm »

True enough.  I should also note according to the US census, 1/3 of Muslims are white (US unlike Canada, UK or Australia classifies those of Middle Eastern or North African background as white, although I don't think most Americans think of them as white), so that would be one group.  As for Jewish yes they are pretty much all European but would they offset the non-Jewish within their ethnic group.  Probably amongst Russians and maybe Ukrainians.  Possibly Polish as the Polish Catholics are usually in the Rust Belt or Northeast which are fairly Democratic areas.  However amongst Germans, I suspect the non-Jewish German vote votes GOP in high enough numbers to cancel out the Democrat support amongst Jews of German descent. 

Obviously religion plays a much bigger role than ethnicity as whites of no religion went 67% for Obama while amongst White Catholics Romney's margin of victory was smaller than amongst white Protestants never mind amongst White mainline Protestants are more evenly split than white Evangelical Protestants who went close to 80% GOP.  Also marital status, income, and age play a big role too amongst whites as unmarried whites, younger whites, and poorer whites tend to only lean GOP as opposed to older whites, married whites, and wealthier whites who voted heavily GOP. 
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Seattle
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« Reply #15 on: November 21, 2012, 06:06:13 pm »

As for the Bosnians, I believe most are Muslim as well so that probably would explain them going for Obama as the GOP are pretty unpopular amongst Muslims regardless of where they come from.  Not because Obama is Muslim (as most Muslims know he is not) but rather Islamophobia is quite rampant in the GOP so it would be pretty tough to vote for a party that is anti-Islam if you were a Muslim.

Only about 40% of Bosnians are Muslims. I think most in America are actually atheists (another very pro-Obama group). If they're not Muslim or atheist, they're probably Catholic.

That's not how residents of Bosnia identify. If you're Muslim, you're a Bosnian/Bosniak. If you're Catholic, you're a Croat, even if you live in Bosnia. If you're Orthodox, you're a Serb, even if you live in Bosnia.

This is because the Bosniak/Croat/Serb distinction is not ethnic at all; they're all ethnically indistinguishable. The distinctions are entirely religious. (Of course, in modern times they think of themselves as ethnically distinct, but those distinctions are of recent vintage and drawn entirely on religious grounds.)

Yes, we could use "Bosnian" to refer generically to everyone from the political entity of Bosnia and "Bosniak" to refer only to Muslim Bosnians. But Catholic Bosnians would call themselves Croats, and Orthodox Bosnians would call themselves Serbs, so you'd be left with only Bosniaks calling themselves Bosnians anyway. I guarantee you that at least 85% of all self-identified Bosnians in the US are Muslim. (Or atheist, I suppose--that's an entirely different issue. But still only those of Muslim heritage/background would call themselves Bosnian, even if they're non-religious these days.)

Oh, I know, I am a Bosnian mix. I usually just use Bosnian as an indentifier, as very few people know the distinction between a Bosnian Serb or Croat. It gets even more confusing for people like my mother, who identified (and I imagine she still does) as a Yugoslav. I was using the term Bosnian to refer to all people who have emigrated from the political entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Since religion (or lack there of) plays a dominent role in politics, I mentioned that most immigrants are probably atheist, therefore more likely to vote for Obama.

In fact, I'd venture to say that a good portion of emigrants from Bosnia are "mixed", or children of Serb/Muslim/Croat parents, and thus don't identify as a Bosniak, but simply as a Bosnian, or as a Sarajevan, since most likely these people are from Sarajevo.
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politicus
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« Reply #16 on: November 21, 2012, 07:29:20 pm »

It's been four generations since we've had substantial European immigration. In most cases the various European groups are so thoroughly interbred that there's not much case for classifying them individually.
Thats what I thought about when I read the question. Especially the older northern and western European groups have basically lost their identity and become WASPs. I have relatives in the US that are of 25-50% Danish origin, but none of them consider themselves Danish-Americans. A label like Scottish-American is obviously even more meaningless.
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PR
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« Reply #17 on: November 21, 2012, 07:43:55 pm »

Obama most certainly underperformed among the "American" ethnic group, both in 2008 and 2012.
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