Vermont

[hopper]

I thought about this yesterday. Are the NY transplants that move to VT are exclusively from NYC? Even New York State(with the city factored in votes) the whites are in the Toss-Up/Tilt D category. Vermont is politically like Canada now. VT is to the left of Massachusetts now(D+16 vs D+10) in 2008-2012 Presidential PVI.

[hopper]

Vermont actually has swung with the rest of the country the past 2 elections from the most part. The country swung 10 points to the left in from 2004 to 2008 while Vermont moved around 9 points to the left. In 2012 the Country swung  3 points to the right while Vermont swung 1 point to the right. Vermont drastic wing to the left took place for the most from 1992-2004(with the exception of 2000 when Bush W. lost the state by 10% to Gore because of Vermont voting for Nader other than Bush W. or Gore.

In 1984 Vermont did actually have results that were close to the actual popular vote that year and in 1988 it was a couple points to the left or Dem than the rest of the country.

[hopper]

2000 D+9       for some reason Bush did very well in northern New England

2000 had Nader which took lots of D voters in New England.

I actually questioned this once and as I understood with its small population the influx of new comers from Mass. and Upstate NY with their Liberal positions tilted that the political map drastically. Lots of old guard Vermontees remained republican (in a moderate sense of the word) but they were just overwhelmed with Liberal outsiders and locals who swayed to the left with them. I assume that if the 80+84 elections would have been competitive that democrats would have carried it then.

I would recommend the American progressive movement to take control of Vermont and turn it into a model progressive state for the rest to see (that includes NY, Mass and the rest of New England or as I call it the Progress Belt)

Massachusetts is really borderline on creating a Progressive Party. The people most to the left on the political spectrum scale live in Western Massachusetts and that part of Massachusetts is really not gaining population. Eastern Massachusetts has makes up most of the the states population growth recently and has really really swung or trended R except for the Boston Area or the Martha's Vineyard area in recent years.

New York-Long Island, and Nassau County are really not that left and all those area vote close to the national average of the popular vote recently. The Flatbush Area of Brooklyn, The Bronx and Upper Manhattan are left politically yes. New York State(minus the city) is like Ohio and Pennsylvania Politically I think except for Buffalo maybe(The Erie County area.)

Why would people move from Massachusetts move to Vermont? Because Vermont has ski resorts that Massachusetts lacks? People from NY State I could understand in moving to Vermont.

[hopper]

seeing as Romney won 2 towns in Vermont, i'd guess that there isn't a single state house district where Romney topped 45%

The closest Romney came to winning a county in Vermont was Essex County which he lost by 13%. Orleans County was the only county to trend R in the state in 2012.

[hopper]

The country moved 3 point to the right from 1988-1992 when combining Bush H.W./Perot votes and Vermont moved 2 points to the right. From 1992-1996 the country as a whole was EVEN when combining Dole/Perot voters and Vermont moved 18 points to the left. From 1996-2000 the country moved 3 points to the left when combining Gore/Nader voters and Vermont moved 6 points to the left.  In 2000-2004 the country moved 6 points to the right while Vermont moved 2 points to the left.

Vermont was basically near the political center of our politics in 1972 and 1980 according to the popular vote(albeit a couple points to the right of the country as a whole.) I did count John Anderson as a vote for the right in 1980. Even without that Vermont would have been  R+1 PVI for 1980 if I didn't count Anderson's votes.

[hopper]

Gallup 2008-2012:


2008 Conservative over Liberal US Advantage +17/Vermont Advantage  0
2008 Dem US Advantage  13/ Vermont Dem Advantage   33  +20

2012 Conservative over liberal US Advantage +16/Vermont Advantage   2
2012 Dem US advantage +4/Vermont Dem Advantage  +17

2008-2012 US Averages Conservative over Liberal Advantage -1/Vermont Average 2008-2012 +2
2008-2012 US Dem Average Advantage -9/Vermont Dem 2008-2012 -16