VA-Quinnipiac: If Mark Warner runs for Governor, Mark Warner will win (big)

[Tender Branson]

f U.S. Sen. Mark Warner wants to be governor of Virginia again in 2013, he would begin the campaign as the overwhelming favorite, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. If Warner does not want another four years in the Executive Mansion in Richmond, Terry McAuliffe, the former Democratic National Committee Chair, and Republicans Bill Bolling, the lieutenant governor, and Ken Cuccinelli, the state attorney general, start off basically even.

Warner, who says he will decide whether to run for governor or remain in the U.S. Senate by Thanksgiving, tops Lt. Gov. Bolling 53 - 33 percent and beats Attorney General Cuccinelli 52 - 34 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds.

If McAuliffe is the Democratic candidate, he would get 38 percent to 36 percent for Bolling, and 41 percent to 37 percent for Cuccinelli.

"If Sen. Mark Warner decides to run, he begins the campaign as the prohibitive favorite," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "He is much better known and much better liked than either of the Republican aspirants and his job approval rating - 60 percent - is the highest of any statewide elected official.

...

From November 8 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,469 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=1813

[You kip if you want to...]

Remember McAuliffe's brilliant campaign in 2009?

Also, can we assume that if Warner runs, he's looking at 2016?

[Mr.Phips]

I certainly wouldnt count McAulliffe out.  Democrats wont be asleep at the switch the way they were in 2009 and McAulliffe would excite the Dem base in Northern Virginia much more than Creigh Deeds did. 

[Benj]

I certainly wouldnt count McAulliffe out.  Democrats wont be asleep at the switch the way they were in 2009 and McAulliffe would excite the Dem base in Northern Virginia much more than Creigh Deeds did.  

lol, McAuliffe exciting the base. He's a total hack with no campaign skills whatsoever who believes that campaigns are built on throwing money around and hiring expensive advisers (see: his 2009 campaign). Definitely great for rallying supporters.

[Mr.Phips]

I certainly wouldnt count McAulliffe out.  Democrats wont be asleep at the switch the way they were in 2009 and McAulliffe would excite the Dem base in Northern Virginia much more than Creigh Deeds did.  

lol, McAuliffe exciting the base. He's a total hack with no campaign skills whatsoever who believes that campaigns are built on throwing money around and hiring expensive advisers (see: his 2009 campaign). Definitely great for rallying supporters.

Who do you suggest other than Warner?  Picking someone like Deeds from the complete wrong part of the state is not a mistake that will be made again. 

[Meeker]

I don't think McAuliffe is an unelectable candidate in terms of bio and appeal to voters. However, as Benj mentioned, I do have serious concerns about his ability to run a competent campaign. The 2009 campaign was a disaster and Hillary's 2008 Presidential campaign was pretty awful as well (the campaign did as well as it did on the strength of Hillary's personal appeal).

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Terry could win, if the base is motivated enough; especially when you factor in the Clintons.  And Phips, Deeds' home area wasn't the problem.  He ran a terrible campaign.  If we nominate someone like Deeds it isn't necessarily a bad thing.  Deeds was still the best candidate, and if he'd run a better campaign he would've won.

[Beet]

Polling this far out is pretty useless.

[SPC]

Does this mean the trend of VA electing a Governor of the opposite party of the President might be broken?

[Skill and Chance]

Does this mean the trend of VA electing a Governor of the opposite party of the President might be broken?

This would be the final "VA moving left" test.  If they elect a non-Warner democrat with Obama in the White House, the implications are pretty significant.  Less so with Warner, though.