LA-03 Runoff

[Miles]

Since this is one of the few outstanding House races, I thought a mini-thread would be in order!

Despite the GOP's unprecedented control of LA redistricting,sizing down to 6 seats from 7 nonetheless proved to be a cruel mistress for Republicans. It was pretty much understood that the tea partying Jeff Landry, who didn't (doesn't) have particularly good relations with the state Republicans would get the boot. Here is the old map compared to the new one:

As such, Landry's 3rd was split up pretty nicely. About 24%, and Landry's home in New Iberia, was retained in the new 3rd while another 25% went to Scalise's CD1 and finally, its holdings along the river parishes were divided between Richmond's 2nd and Cassidy's 6th.

Here's how the the old 3rd was divided:

On Tuesday, as expected, neither Landry nor Boustany  got 50%, necessitating a runoff. The electoral dichotomy of the district was pretty obvious. The parishes from the 7th voted Boustany while Landry won those from the old 3rd:

Boustany (R)- 44.7%
Landry (R)- 30.0%
Richard (D)- 21.5%

On the Presidential level, not much to see. While the state as a whole swung a few points toward Obama, the President continued to slip in Acadiana. Romney improved to 66-32 over McCain's 64-34.

The runoff is scheduled for December 8th.

The Democrat, Ron Richard, endorsed Boustany a few days after the primary.Boustany is also touting endorsements from local officials of both parties throughout the district.

Landry has the support of 4 other far-right Republicans in Congress; Jim Jordan, Jeff Duncan, Mick Mulvaney and Tom Graves recently stumped for him in Lafayette.

[Meeker]

Seems like Boustany should pretty easily win.

Have any outside groups gotten involved in the race in terms of $$$ so far? Ads in those markets must be pretty cheap.

[smoltchanov]

At least by "Deep South standards" Boustany is "not especially conservative"))))

[minionofmidas]

This is over.

I find the map quite disgusting, by the way. They ought to have eliminated an Anglo district.

[Miles]

This is over.

I find the map quite disgusting, by the way. They ought to have eliminated an Anglo district.

I agree. I probably would have cut 5 or 6.

[RogueBeaver]

Boustany probably wins, though you never know. Getting 45% in the jungle doesn't mean you automatically win. Just ask Dewhurst.

[Miles]

Though I'd expect him to be less favorable to Landry, Jindal is nonetheless staying out of this race.

[RogueBeaver]

In keeping with his SOP.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If he backs Boustany and the TP pulls one of its ass here, it would come back to hurt Jindal. Kind of like how backing Dede NY-23, was used against Newt.

[Miles]

The Boustany camp dropped an internal from POS recently.

As you would expect, the more polarizing Landry has negative 39/41 favorables while Boustany is at a lofty 65/25.

In the matchup, Boustany leads 56-29 overall and 53-37 with Republicans.

The Landry campaign is pushing back against this by saying that Boustany's polling had him leading by 30 ahead of the jungle primary.

[Miles]

As of last week, Boustany's fundraising advantage is approaching 4:1.

[Miles]

RHH did a poll of this district with a pretty neat write-up.

The topline is 51-33 Boustany.

Landry trails with every demographic except younger voters. Both have their respective bases on lockdown. Landry leads 65/23 in the old 3rd and Boustany is up 61-22 in the old 7th.

Even if Landry's 3:1 margin in the old 3rd holds, he'll still need to hold Boustany under 60% in the old 7th. A very tall order.

More worrisome for Landry is that the two groups that have the highest undecideds in this poll, as you would well imagine, are liberals and blacks. Both are likely to break heavily against him.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Sad that the Cajuns are reduced to one district in LA.

But hopefully Boustany wins (never thought I'd be so enthusiastic for a conservative!). The fewer Tea Partiers, the better (unless it's the primary and a Democrat can beat them )

[Miles]

Also, its more worrisome for Landry is that the two groups which have the highest undecideds in this poll, as you would well imagine, are liberals and blacks. Both are likely to break heavily against him.

[Meeker]

I imagine turnout in African-American precincts will be in the single digits.

[Miles]

I imagine turnout in African-American precincts will be in the single digits.

Yes, probably so, but from what I've followed on Facebook, the Boustany camp is at least trying to reach out to black voters. I guess he isn't taking anything for granted.

[hopper]

I imagine turnout in African-American precincts will be in the single digits.

Yes, probably so, but from what I've followed on Facebook, the Boustany is at least trying to reach out to black voters. I guess he isn't taking anything for granted.

Good for him.

[RogueBeaver]

I read somewhere that Landry might be considering a run against Landrieu, but difficult to do that when you get blown out in redistricting. Plus I'm sure the LAGOP is clearing that field for Cassidy.

[Abolish ICE]

I read somewhere that Landry might be considering a run against Landrieu, but difficult to do that when you get blown out in redistricting. Plus I'm sure the LAGOP is clearing that field for Cassidy.

Jeff Landry and his fellow tea-partiers need to show big government establishment RINOs like Cassidy that their kind aren't welcome in the real America

[Miles]

I read somewhere that Landry might be considering a run against Landrieu, but difficult to do that when you get blown out in redistricting. Plus I'm sure the LAGOP is clearing that field for Cassidy.

Well, I can see how the LAGOP would have burnt a bridge or two with Landry over this election. I could still see him running for Senate in 2014 since he'll be out of his House job. Either way, its not like he could play the spoiler for Cassidy allowing Landrieu to hold on; Landrieu has to get a majority with the jungle system to win anyway.

I'm pretty sure Landrieu won Landry's old 3rd too, so I don't think his entrance into the race would be particularly helpful to her.

The best case, IMO, would be Landry making it to the second ballot with Landrieu, instead of Cassidy.

[hopper]

I read somewhere that Landry might be considering a run against Landrieu, but difficult to do that when you get blown out in redistricting. Plus I'm sure the LAGOP is clearing that field for Cassidy.

Cassidy is too quiet. I rather have Scalise than Cassidy run against Landrieu.

[Miles]

I read somewhere that Landry might be considering a run against Landrieu, but difficult to do that when you get blown out in redistricting. Plus I'm sure the LAGOP is clearing that field for Cassidy.

Cassidy is too quiet. I rather have Scalise than Cassidy run against Landrieu.

Scalise just win his bid to chair the Republican Study Committee.'Very likely that he stays in the House.

Of the Republicans in the House delegation, I actually think Landrieu has the best relationship with Scalise.

[RogueBeaver]

So Cassidy it is, though I'm guessing he'll wait till spring for the formal announcement.

[Abolish ICE]

If Cassidy is Paul Newman wouldn't that make Jeff Landry Robert Redford?

[CountryRoads]

I like Cassidy, I'd happily support him.