Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[publicunofficial]

Schwartz/Critz would be a weird ticket though.

A former Planned Parenthood clinic owner paired with someone who was one of if not the most Pro-Life Democrat in Congress.

[Morning in Atlas]

Schwartz/Critz would be a weird ticket though.

A former Planned Parenthood clinic owner paired with someone who was one of if not the most Pro-Life Democrat in Congress.

"sup" - Dan Lipinski

[Keystone Phil]

Schwartz/Critz would be a weird ticket though.

A former Planned Parenthood clinic owner paired with someone who was one of if not the most Pro-Life Democrat in Congress.

Sure it would be but Schwartz is a smart candidate. She's pragmatic enough to know that she "needs" someone like Critz.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Looking at Pennsylvania's historical trends on the Keystone State Governors:

1974-Milton Shapp (D) reelected governor
1978-Dick Thornburgh (R) elected
1982-Thornburgh reelected
1986-State Auditor General Bob Casey, Sr., elected governor
1990-Casey Sr., reelected
1994-U.S. Rep. Tom Ridge (R-PA) elected governor in GOP Revolution landslide
1998-Ridge reelected
2002-Former Philly Mayor Ed Rendell (D) elected to the governorship
2006-Rendell reelected easily
2010-State AG Tom Corbett (R) elected to the governorship
2014-???

Corbett has 3 statewide election victories in his belt

[Gass3268]

Looking at Pennsylvania's historical trends on the Keystone State Governors:

1974-Milton Shapp (D) reelected governor
1978-Dick Thornburgh (R) elected
1982-Thornburgh reelected
1986-State Auditor General Bob Casey, Sr., elected governor
1990-Casey Sr., reelected
1994-U.S. Rep. Tom Ridge (R-PA) elected governor in GOP Revolution landslide
1998-Ridge reelected
2002-Former Philly Mayor Ed Rendell (D) elected to the governorship
2006-Rendell reelected easily
2010-State AG Tom Corbett (R) elected to the governorship
2014-???

Corbett has 3 statewide election victories in his belt

But his approval ratings are down the tubes and no one in PA cares about what happened in the 80's when it comes to reelecting Corbett or not. 

[Rocky Rockefeller]

Looking at Pennsylvania's historical trends on the Keystone State Governors:

1974-Milton Shapp (D) reelected governor
1978-Dick Thornburgh (R) elected
1982-Thornburgh reelected
1986-State Auditor General Bob Casey, Sr., elected governor
1990-Casey Sr., reelected
1994-U.S. Rep. Tom Ridge (R-PA) elected governor in GOP Revolution landslide
1998-Ridge reelected
2002-Former Philly Mayor Ed Rendell (D) elected to the governorship
2006-Rendell reelected easily
2010-State AG Tom Corbett (R) elected to the governorship
2014-???

Corbett has 3 statewide election victories in his belt

People give too much credit to supposed trends as if they're guaranteed rules, without considering that it may just be coincidence or that certain circumstances of the current election may prevent that trend from holding up.

[Morning in Atlas]

1948- Matthew Nealy (D) beat W. Chapman Revercomb (R) by 14 to become the Class 3 Senator from West Virginia
1954- Nealy reelected, beating Robert Sweeney (R) by nearly 20 again.. Nealy dies in 1958.
1958- John Hobitzell (R) was appointed to succeed him by a Republican governor, but he was beaten months after being sworn in by Jennings Randolph (D) by almost 20 points.
1960- Randolph re-elected, this time by 10.
1966- Randolph (D) re-elected again in a landslide. Almost 20.
1972- Randolph once again wins and breaks 20.
1978- Jennings Randolph (D) fends off a strong challenge from popular former governor Arch Moore (R), scraping by with one point.
1984- Jay Rockefeller (D) beats John Raese (R) by 5 points.
1990- Rockefeller reelected in an over 30-point landslide
1996- Rockefeller wins by more than 50
2002- Rockefeller (D) reelected Senator
2008- Rockefeller wins by over 25
2014- Because the Class 2 Senate seat from West Virginia has not elected a Democrat and has been a landslide since 1984, the Democrat will win in 2014 by a landslide.

See? I can cite random facts to back up things that won't happen too.

[Keystone Phil]

I've always been critical of the stock people place in this re-elect pattern but it's amazing how so many of the Dems that cited it from 2004-2006 for Rendell now think it is irrelevant. Not talking about anyone here necessarily; talking head hacks have done it though.

Anyway, as critical as I've been about the pattern, I don't think it makes sense to say it will be broken because "people don't care about what happened in the '80s." That's not why the pattern matters or exists. The pattern exists as a result of Pennsylvania's cautious electorate and even though Corbett's in the tubes right now, he could still benefit from it. If he gets up to a rating in even just the 40s, I think this becomes a totally different race leaning in his favor.

[windjammer]

But will Tom Corbett run again?

[Keystone Phil]

But will Tom Corbett run again?

He insists that he is.

[Keystone Phil]

Former Auditor General Jack Wagner is supposedly considering another bid for Governor. He's obviously not a hit with the liberal base but he'd easily be the most electable in November and is probably looking to unite the non-eastern PA vote.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Tennessee also has the similar trend in reelecting their governors as well:
1978-Lamar Alexander (R) elected governor
1982-Alexander reelected
1986-Ned McWhether (D) elected to the governorship
1990-McWhether reelected
1994-Don Sundquist (R) elected, defeating then-Nashville Mayor Phil Bredesen (D)
1998-Sundquist reelected overwhelmingly
2002-Bredsen (D) elected to the governorship.
2006-Bredesen reelected
2010-Bill Haslam (R) elected
2014-Haslam likely reelected
2018-??

[windjammer]

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/08/government_reformers_say_gov_t.html

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

From John Hanger's Facebook page.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Knowing Corbett, he's likely to go ahead with the reelection bid.

The Dem primary could get nasty, which would benefit Corbett in the general.

[Morning in Atlas]

boo corbett yay hanger

[windjammer]

Sawx, I'm curiious, where will you vote in 2014? Pennsylvania or New Hampshire?

[Morning in Atlas]

probably PA, i just want to help corbett out the door and the democrats can hold on for a year

[Keystone Phil]

Well, I stand corrected on this. I didn't even see him recently mentioned as a rumored candidate until someone mentioned it here. I didn't take it seriously but it looks like he's in.




For those that don't know, he's the Mayor of Allentown.

[Keystone Phil]

About an hour ago, McCord's Facebook page posted that an "announcement about the future" would be coming soon. It was accompanied by a picture of the State Treasurer talking to voters.

[Morning in Atlas]

Well, I met John Hanger yesterday when he came to my college. I'd have to say I was pleased with what he had to say. Would highly recommend all the D-PAs here to listen to him, tell everyone you know about him, and to donate. He's got good grassroots ideas but needs the money.

[TX Conservative Dem]

McCord running for Governor ?

I believe a crowded Democratic primary would get nasty and possibly help the GOPers like Corbett (if he isn't pushed out).

[Keystone Phil]

McCord running for Governor ?

...yeah, this isn't anything surprising...

But an official announcement still hasn't happened.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Corbett does have a big EGO, he'll still run for reelection despite folks pressuring him to pull a David Palmer and bow out of the 2014 governor's race.

[publicunofficial]

http://www.politicspa.com/santorum-endorses-corbett/51144/

Rick Santorum states that he will "Absolutely" campaign on Corbett's behalf throughout the election.


R+1, Dems have no chance now.