pa2011
Rookie
Posts: 234
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« on: November 12, 2012, 06:53:36 PM » |
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« edited: November 12, 2012, 07:00:35 PM by pa2011 »
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For the longest time, if you were a Democrat and wanted suburban living in DC, you choose to live in Maryland, in part due to the state's progressive reputation.
If you were a Republican and wanted to live in suburbs, you chose Virginia, in part due to the state's conservative reputation and low tax rate. Virginia also attracted more members of the military/Pentagon, etc, while Montgomery attracted immigrants long before Virginia did.
Now, however, demographics have caugth up with Fairfax. Also, Fairfax is arguably close to an outer suburb since both Arlington and Alexandria -- both heavily Democratic - are an easier commute to DC. Montogomery is an inner suburb. So in some ways better to compare Montgomery to Arlington than it is to Fairfax.
Fairfax was pretty solidly GOP until 2004, when Kerry won it. So fact 60 percent is now already routine for Democratic candidates -- at least Obama and Warner/Kaine/Webb in statewide races - shows you how fast Fairfax is trending Democratic.
Don't think Fairfax will ever be as Democratic as Montgomery, but think eventually 65 percent for statewide Democratic candidates will be attainable. But still think a moderate GOP presidential candidate -- like Christie - could perhaps still keep the county competitive again in presidential elections.
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