Calls Grow for GOP to Break its Media Cocoon (user search)
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Author Topic: Calls Grow for GOP to Break its Media Cocoon  (Read 5250 times)
politicallefty
Junior Chimp
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« on: November 24, 2012, 03:16:51 AM »

National polls had a Republican bias but State polls (with the exception of Rassy and other joke pollsters) were relatively accurate. This is another important lesson: State polls are historically better than national polls to predict the outcome of the election.

I think you're right, but the main inaccuracy in the national polls was the overly-restrictive likely voter screen. If it wasn't for that, Gallup would've basically nailed the national vote margin. It's not so much that the national polls had a Republican bias per se, but rather that the likely voter polls screened out a lot of Obama voters.
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