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March 05, 2021, 05:29:00 PM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: ON Progressive)
  Alaska had the largest swing to Obama of any state, but somewhere was larger
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Author Topic: Alaska had the largest swing to Obama of any state, but somewhere was larger  (Read 2314 times)
Dr. RI, Trustbuster
realisticidealist
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« on: November 11, 2012, 06:26:48 PM »

And that would be the territory of Guam, which had a swing to Obama of 20.55%. Here's a quick rundown of Guam's voting history:

2012: Obama 72.39%, Romney 26.49%, Johnson 1.12%
2008: Obama 62.34%, McCain 37.00%, Barr 0.66%
2004: Bush 64.08%, Kerry 35.13%, Nader 0.58%, Badnarik 0.20%
2000: Bush 51.58%, Gore 47.22%, Browne 1.20%
1996: Clinton 59.67%, Dole 38.79%, Browne 1.54%
1992: Clinton won, numbers unknown, Marrou 0.67%
1988: Bush won, numbers unknown, Paul 0.53%
1984: Reagan won, numbers unknown, Bergland 0.50%
1980: Carter won, numbers unknown, Clark 0.80%

Guam seems to have a very strong incumbent bias, not unlike Hawaii perhaps.
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Cath
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« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2012, 06:46:37 PM »

In general, its vote seems a good predictor who won the race in real life. Only time Guam ddint' vote for the winner looks to be 1980.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2012, 08:04:07 PM »

Guam would really like to be a state, so they tend to suck up to the party in power in hopes that will help it with that and with getting more money from Washington.  The latter maybe, but Guam's too small.  Even combined with the Northern Marianas, they still have a little less than 30% of a CD worth of population.  Even if the Marshalls, Micronesia and Palau joined in, the population of a state of Pacifica would only be about 60% of a CD.  Despite all that, if it were not for the Senate, I think Guam would be able to get Statehood, but as is, it's impossible.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2012, 08:36:44 PM »

Guam would really like to be a state, so they tend to suck up to the party in power in hopes that will help it with that and with getting more money from Washington.  The latter maybe, but Guam's too small.  Even combined with the Northern Marianas, they still have a little less than 30% of a CD worth of population.  Even if the Marshalls, Micronesia and Palau joined in, the population of a state of Pacifica would only be about 60% of a CD.  Despite all that, if it were not for the Senate, I think Guam would be able to get Statehood, but as is, it's impossible.
Would the state 'Pacifica' even be that realistic of a proposition.  I don't know how the residents of these territories would feel about being lumped together like that.
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memphis
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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2012, 09:41:28 PM »

Guam votes for president?
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2012, 11:00:51 AM »

Would the state 'Pacifica' even be that realistic of a proposition.  I don't know how the residents of these territories would feel about being lumped together like that.

Doubtful they would want to be lumped together, since with the exception of the Northern Marianas, the former Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands chose to head off in the direction of independence once the trust territory was ended.  I'm just saying that a Pacifica as I outlined is likely the only way of Guam has of ever becoming a State or a portion of a State, and even then, that would likely happen only if the Senate were eliminated or its power was severely curtailed.
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Benj
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« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2012, 11:08:49 AM »

Has Guam ever been offered the possibility of joining Hawaii? Seems like the best solution to getting them "statehood", as it were.
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Oh Jeremy Corbyn!
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« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2012, 12:39:02 PM »

Guam is so far away from Hawaii it's not even funny.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
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« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2012, 02:02:45 PM »

Guam would really like to be a state, so they tend to suck up to the party in power in hopes that will help it with that and with getting more money from Washington.  The latter maybe, but Guam's too small.  Even combined with the Northern Marianas, they still have a little less than 30% of a CD worth of population.  Even if the Marshalls, Micronesia and Palau joined in, the population of a state of Pacifica would only be about 60% of a CD.  Despite all that, if it were not for the Senate, I think Guam would be able to get Statehood, but as is, it's impossible.

Looks like the only territory with enough population to become a state is Puerto Rico.
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Benj
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« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2012, 08:14:25 PM »

Guam is so far away from Hawaii it's not even funny.

True, but that's not necessarily a bar, unless the Guamanians think it is.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2012, 09:38:46 PM »

Guam is so far away from Hawaii it's not even funny.

True, but that's not necessarily a bar, unless the Guamanians think it is.

There's a twenty hour difference between Guam and Hawaii.  If they were all one state, the polls in Guam would be closed and counted even before the polls in Hawaii.
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Benj
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« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2012, 09:49:25 PM »
« Edited: November 12, 2012, 09:51:38 PM by Benj »

Guam is so far away from Hawaii it's not even funny.

True, but that's not necessarily a bar, unless the Guamanians think it is.

There's a twenty hour difference between Guam and Hawaii.  If they were all one state, the polls in Guam would be closed and counted even before the polls in Hawaii.

Or they would vote the next day, in which case there would be only a four-hour difference. Not hard. I'm sure Congress would waive the ordinary requirement for federal offices (as they would pretty much have to if Guam were a state itself anyway), and state law is state law and easy to change.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #12 on: November 13, 2012, 05:52:06 AM »

Just have Hawaii (and all the rest of the Pacific, as it makes so much sense in every remaining case except Hawaii and Isla de Pascua that it's eventual happening is pretty much inevitable) cross the Date Line.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #13 on: November 13, 2012, 11:04:56 AM »

Just have Hawaii (and all the rest of the Pacific, as it makes so much sense in every remaining case except Hawaii and Isla de Pascua that it's eventual happening is pretty much inevitable) cross the Date Line.


Ideally the date line should be in the Atlantic.
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