GOP U.S. Senate candidates for Washington state

[CT27]

Who are some credible candidates the GOP in Washington state could put up for the Senate in the future?

Dave Reichert and Jaime Beutler seem to be doing relatively well in elections; might either of them run?

[Miles]

The GOP's bets chance there would have probably been Senator Rossi in 2010, which didn't happen.

They would probably have to wait for Cantwell or Murray to retire to have a serious chance, but I do think Herra Beutler could be formidable in such a scenario.

[Lief 🗽]

If Washington won't even elect McKenna to be their governor, I don't think there's much hope for a Republican to win a much more partisan race for Senate.

[Meeker]

There will not be a Republican Senator from Washington for a long time. The state has become too Democratic in the past decade. As for the specific names mentioned, both Reichert and Herrera Beutler realize what an incredible long shot a Senate bid would be. They aren't going to give up safe House seats for what is basically a suicide run. Reichert also has a spot on Ways and Means so he's probably pretty happy where he is.

Maybe McKenna will make another run at something in the future (rematch against Inslee seems most likely), but beyond him there's really no GOP bench in Washington anymore. They control only one statewide office (and she's really just an elected bureaucrat). All three major County Executives are Democrats. There are a few theoretically bright hopes in the Legislature but all lack name ID outside their own district and two (Mike Hope and Michael Baumgartner) have turned out to be pretty bad candidates for higher office.

Dark days lie ahead for the WA GOP.

[RI]

Honestly, the most likely way I can see for a Republican to win a Senate seat here would be for there to be an open primary where so many non-descript Democrats run that two Republicans sneak into the general election.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Honestly, the most likely way I can see for a Republican to win a Senate seat here would be for there to be an open primary when so many non-descript Democrats run that two Republicans sneak into the general election.

The undemocratic CA-31 trick?

[Ogre Mage]

It's much more likely that we will elect a Republican Governor than a Republican Senator.  Even if a Republican got elected to the Senate it is highly unlikely it would be anything more than a one-term aberration.  The most likely way this could happen is an open seat in a huge GOP wave year.

I agree with Meeker's assessment of Herrera-Beutler and Reichert.  

[smoltchanov]

It's much more likely that we will elect a Republican Governor than a Republican Senator.  Even if a Republican got elected to the Senate it is highly unlikely it would be anything more than a one-term aberration.  The most likely way this could happen is an open seat in a huge GOP wave year.

I agree with Meeker's assessment of Herrera-Beutler and Reichert.  

I agree too. But you have at least one countywide-elected Republican even in King county if i remember correctly. And he is SO popular (and moderate) that last time was elected unopposed. Strange things happen sometimes)))

[Vosem]

Honestly, the most likely way I can see for a Republican to win a Senate seat here would be for there to be an open primary when so many non-descript Democrats run that two Republicans sneak into the general election.

The undemocratic CA-31 trick?

That's so punny.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Maybe the GOP will see the light, and Rob McKenna or Sam Reed will get elected to the Senate someday.

[sg0508]

The GOP has an outside chance of electing a republican senator with a moderate candidate during a mid-term.  They have almost no chance of doing so in a presidential year and that's why they can't even within the mansion despite the fact that Gov. races are far more non-partisan; they elect governors in presidential years.

Also, the way that the state is setup makes it tough for GOPers to do well there and western WA is becoming more blue and is growing faster.

Again, it's a demographic problem that the party has nobody to blame but themselves.  Knowing people that live in Seattle, they will not for republicans under any circumstance because they want no association with that mess, their social positions, etc.

[CountryRoads]

what about McMorris-Rodgers? or is she not willing to give up her seat?

[Ogre Mage]

what about McMorris-Rodgers? or is she not willing to give up her seat?

McMorris-Rodgers is focused on rising in the House Leadership.  And she knows the score.  You can't win without getting at least 40% in King County and McMorris-Rodgers would get absolutely flayed there and throughout the Puget Sound region.  There's a reason why no one from Eastern Washington has won a U.S. Senate seat since 1928.  Look at what happened to then-Rep. George Nethercutt when he tried to run against Murray in 2004.

[Meeker]

McMorris Rodgers could be Speaker someday if she plays her cards correctly. No way she's leaving the House.

Since Hastings is the last one who hasn't been mentioned, I will go ahead and point out that he is the Chair of the Natural Resources committee. He's also far too conservative to get elected statewide.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

The GOP has an outside chance of electing a republican senator with a moderate candidate during a mid-term.  They have almost no chance of doing so in a presidential year and that's why they can't even within the mansion despite the fact that Gov. races are far more non-partisan; they elect governors in presidential years.

Also, the way that the state is setup makes it tough for GOPers to do well there and western WA is becoming more blue and is growing faster.

Again, it's a demographic problem that the party has nobody to blame but themselves.  Knowing people that live in Seattle, they will not for republicans under any circumstance because they want no association with that mess, their social positions, etc.

You are absolutely, exactly right.

[CT27]

Some people have said Senate races are more partisan/difficult?  Why would the GOP winning a Senate race in WA be any more or less likely than the office of Governor?

[Ogre Mage]

Some people have said Senate races are more partisan/difficult?  Why would the GOP winning a Senate race in WA be any more or less likely than the office of Governor?

Governors primary responsibility is managing their states.  They are the top executive, set their own agenda and answer to no one but the voters.  Thus, they can maintain a certain independence from the national party.

Senators are much more tightly tethered to the national party by the nature of their jobs in Congress where they caucus with fellow Republicans/Democrats from other states.  A vote for a Republican Senator is a vote to empower the national GOP.  And the national GOP agenda is poison in Washington State, especially on social issues. 

[hopper]

Washington State did have a couple of Republican Senators before Cantwell with Slade Gordon and Evans.

[sg0508]

The irony is, the cupboard isn't that bare in WA state for the GOP.  They've selected some decent candidates for statewide races since 2000, but they just can't breakthrough enough in Seattle and the surrounding suburbs.

Indirectly, I think former Sen. Gorton also hurt the GOP when he made it very clear that he had "issues" with some of the groups in King County.  That likely alienated a lot of moderate voters that the GOP would need to carry the state.

[Ogre Mage]

Washington State did have a couple of Republican Senators before Cantwell with Slade Gordon and Evans.

Slade Gorton was first elected in the 1980s, a very different era in Washington politics.  Demographic changes and political polarization have rendered his anti-King County, anti-Seattle strategy obsolete.  2000 turned out to be the tipping point.

Dan Evans was appointed to the Senate by Gov. Spellman after the death of Scoop Jackson.  It turned out to be an ill fit.  He did not run for a second term.  

After the shellacking Washington Republicans took in 2012, Gorton himself admitted:

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