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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  My 2nd favorite result of the night: LOUISIANA! (search mode)
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Author Topic: My 2nd favorite result of the night: LOUISIANA!  (Read 1121 times)
Jr. Member
Posts: 983

« on: November 10, 2012, 09:23:50 pm »
« edited: November 10, 2012, 09:28:02 pm by Benj »

Hard to know. I suspect the black population has boomed in suburban New Orleans recently, and that that was the cause of the big swing in St. Bernard Parish. Some people have suggested Deepwater Horizon as an explanation, but the vast majority of the population of St. Bernard Parish lives in Chalmette, Arabi and nearby towns, suburbs adjacent to New Orleans. (And not just to any part of New Orleans, to the infamous Lower Ninth Ward.) There are very few fishermen or other people directly affected by the oil spill there. (Plaquemines would have more.)

A surge in suburban black population would also explain the result in Jefferson Parish, which is also almost entirely suburban.

Generally speaking, it seems that, outside of the New Orleans metro, the swings are the result of lower white turnout and higher black turnout.  The rest of the swings to Obama look like the areas that swung to Obama in Mississippi and Alabama. Livingston Parish, which has basically no black people, can't be explained by that. However, at 85% for McCain, it was probably already maxed out for Republicans.
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