Hard to know. I suspect the black population has boomed in suburban New Orleans recently, and that that was the cause of the big swing in St. Bernard Parish. Some people have suggested Deepwater Horizon as an explanation, but the vast majority of the population of St. Bernard Parish lives in Chalmette, Arabi and nearby towns, suburbs adjacent to New Orleans. (And not just to any part of New Orleans, to the infamous Lower Ninth Ward.) There are very few fishermen or other people directly affected by the oil spill there. (Plaquemines would have more.)
Didn't this issue hurt Obama?
