Arizona has Half a Million Votes to Count, Senate Race Could be Affected.

[retromike22]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/us/politics/arizona-races-still-hang-in-the-balance-over-uncounted-votes.html?_r=1&

524,633 uncounted ballots. Carmona trails Flake by 78,775. Most of the uncounted votes are from first time minority voters.

Uh oh!

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

A longshot, but that'd be an amazing comeback.

[Tayya]

Carmona would have to win 65%slightly below 60% of the remaining votes, assuming that all are counted. That would mean that these ballots have to swing 20%almost 15% to Carmona compared to Election Night. I find that highly unlikely, but one can hope.

EDIT: Math fail.

[Bacon King]

And here I was, worried that the 2012 election would have an entirely uneventful post-season.

[Frodo]

It will be nice having a 56th member at the Senate Democratic caucus...  

[Mr.Phips]

Carmona would need to win 58% of the outstanding ballots to make up the margin.  Is it possible?

[Benj]

Interesting, but probably overblown in significance. However, the margin in the McSally-Barber race in AZ-2 has dropped from about 200 votes on election night to 36 votes now, well within the territory where a recount could change the result. Not sure if there are more ballots to count in that race.

Edit: As to whether this could be significant, the AZ SOS is way ahead of CNN on reporting ballot #s. Right now, CNN has Flake with 834,865 votes to 754,892 for Carmona. The AZ SOS, with more updated numbers, has Flake on 895,552 (+60,687) and Carmona on 819,223 (+64,331). That means Carmona won about 51.5% of votes counted between CNN's last update and the most recent AZ SOS update. Enough to close the gap a bit, but not nearly enough to win.

[Vosem]

Democrats will win a 5-4 House delegation majority, but it's not enough to beat Flake.

[Bacon King]

It looks like they're a bit under halfway done counting absentee/early votes. After that will be the provisional ballots- which will presumably have a heavy Democratic margin- that won't be fully tallied until Wednesday.

[Mr.Phips]

It looks like they're a bit under halfway done counting absentee/early votes. After that will be the provisional ballots- which will presumably have a heavy Democratic margin- that won't be fully tallied until Wednesday.

Not seeing the results of those absentee/early votes.  How many provisionals are there?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Carmona would need to win 58% of the outstanding ballots to make up the margin.  Is it possible?

Almost assuredly not. The predicted results of these ballots have already been factored into the Flake call.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Carmona almost certainly still won't win, but Barber has now pulled ahead by about two hundred votes. I'm pretty sure he's got this.

[Mr.Phips]

Carmona would need to win 58% of the outstanding ballots to make up the margin.  Is it possible?

Almost assuredly not. The predicted results of these ballots have already been factored into the Flake call.

There have been plenty of races called in the past where absentee ballots changed the result.  The 1996 New Hampshire senate race comes to mind. 

[adma]

Minnesota '08?

[Benj]

Interesting, but probably overblown in significance. However, the margin in the McSally-Barber race in AZ-2 has dropped from about 200 votes on election night to 36 votes now, well within the territory where a recount could change the result. Not sure if there are more ballots to count in that race.

Edit: As to whether this could be significant, the AZ SOS is way ahead of CNN on reporting ballot #s. Right now, CNN has Flake with 834,865 votes to 754,892 for Carmona. The AZ SOS, with more updated numbers, has Flake on 895,552 (+60,687) and Carmona on 819,223 (+64,331). That means Carmona won about 51.5% of votes counted between CNN's last update and the most recent AZ SOS update. Enough to close the gap a bit, but not nearly enough to win.

There was another dump of votes this afternoon. Flake up to 930,570 (+35,018), Carmona up to 854,311 (+35,088). So, Carmona is winning the votes that are coming in, but by tiny margins, not nearly enough to overcome Flake's lead (assuming these votes are representative of the state; I suppose this could have been all the absentees from the city of Mesa, in which case Carmona would be in with a shot, but that's doubtful).

(On the other hand, I doubt the networks took these ballots into account; they're not exactly very good at the whole "predicting the result" thing. Better now than the 2000 debacle, to be sure, but they're really just more cautious on election night, not more informed.)

On a brighter note, Barber is now ahead by almost 300 votes. I think that race is over if provisionals haven't been counted (and even if not, 300 votes is really outside of recount-could-change-the-result range in a CD).

[badgate]

^Is the AZ SOS webpage the best place to check? I've been following congressional races on the Politico results map lol...i like that it's interactive.

[minionofmidas]

I want this to end in a tie. -_-

On a related note, what kind of ballots are out in Illinois? Are they so competent there that they don't need provisionals and have all the absentees in by polling day or what? I'm a bit surprised given the margin that they called the 13th.

[Franzl]

I want this to end in a tie. -_-

On a related note, what kind of ballots are out in Illinois? Are they so competent there that they don't need provisionals and have all the absentees in by polling day or what? I'm a bit surprised given the margin that they called the 13th.

Illinois hardly ever has many provisional ballots, and their acceptance rate is also one of the lowest in the nation. (So yes to your question.)

Absentees, if available on election night, are released with the normal tabulation...but some do arrive after Election Day.

[Tender Branson]

Go Flake !!!

[bedstuy]

On a brighter note, Barber is now ahead by almost 300 votes. I think that race is over if provisionals haven't been counted (and even if not, 300 votes is really outside of recount-could-change-the-result range in a CD).

Pima hasn't counted any provisional ballots.  They have 6000 early ballots and 27,000 provisional ballots left to count.  Looking good for Barber.

http://www.tucsonweekly.com/TheRange/archives/2012/11/10/cd2-update-barber-moves-ahead-of-mcsally-by-223-votes

[Benj]

Flake actually gained more than Carmona in the most recent dump of votes. it's now 960,318 to 881,966. Barber gained over McSally, though, and is now up 330 votes.

[Bacon King]

http://www.abc15.com/dpp/news/state/arizona-election-results-262000-early-provisional-ballots-yet-to-be-counted

140k early votes left
122k provisionals left

Newly-registered Hispanics were apparently a huge chunk of the provisional votes. No idea who or where the remaining early votes are from; that'll probably determine the winner.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I can't imagine this is enough to overtake Flake, but at least Barber holds on.

[Benj]

Flake actually gained more than Carmona in the most recent dump of votes. it's now 960,318 to 881,966. Barber gained over McSally, though, and is now up 330 votes.

Another day in which Flake gained slightly over Carmona. Now 992,323 to 912,776. The percent margin has narrowed somewhat, however. Carmona is within 4% now. Not going to win, but worth following. Also, Greenlee County and, to a lesser extent, Navajo County, are very close and could flip to Carmona without him winning.

McSally gained some votes today as well, though Barber still leads by 512 votes (in an interim report, his lead was up to 698). Guessing it was more of Cochise County being counted.

[bedstuy]

CD 2 Votes left:
Pima: 4000 early, 27,000 provisional
Cochise: 2000 early, 2000 provisional

Provisional ballots usually skew towards to Democrats, right?  If that's true, seems like Barber is going to win unless most/all the remaining ballots are from Republican areas. 

Also, Ron Barber looks exactly like the guy who owned Jurassic Park.  I don't know if that bodes well for his career in Washington.