Arizona is surprising given the home state advantage in 2008. Unless McCain overperformed with minorities.
Can ND, KY, and WY be projected (over 85% white)?
McCain did about as well among Hispanics in Arizona in 2008 (56-41) as Bush did 4 years earlier (probably the only state where it was even close), or to put it another way, a little better than Obama did among whites. Given the numbers in Apache and Navajo Counties, he probably did a little better among Native Americans there than other recent Republican candidates.
The one thing I really don't get is if in Alabama whites swung toward Obama, and the Black Belt swung toward Obama, how is it Obama got one-third of a percent less in the state than 4 years ago?
