2014 Senate retirements

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Some of that is just ridiculous beyond the pale really. 75%? yea, get real.


We don't even know who half of the states who is for sure for reelection and who is yea for now and then retires during the next year.

[Vosem]

Some of that is just ridiculous beyond the pale really. 75%? yea, get real.


We don't even know who half of the states who is for sure for reelection and who is yea for now and then retires during the next year.

I didn't say there's a 75% chance of taking the Senate. I said there is a 75% chance that at least 1 of Oregon, Colorado, North Carolina, and New Hampshire flip, which seems to be a fairly realistic prognosis. (I personally would say there's maybe a 55% chance of taking the Senate, but this basically entirely going by my gut.)

Some of that is just ridiculous beyond the pale really. 75%? yea, get real.


We don't even know who half of the states who is for sure for reelection and who is yea for now and then retires during the next year.

But we can predict. That's what we're here for, isn't it?

[Mr.Phips]

Those 5 are the obvious ones, but, probability. There's just so many possible Democratic targets that I think it's there's a greater than 75% chance that at least 1 of Oregon, Colorado, North Carolina, and New Hampshire flip, and when you add the one to your 5 that's a majority. There's literally just so many options and certain pickups and possible longshots for the Republicans, and than the Democrats have one massively unlikely longshot and another race where they have to hope the incumbent retires, and that's it, and on top of that you will probably have some sort of six-year itch. I think it's more likely than not some combination of 6 seats somewhere flips. (I wonder if 2014 is shaping up to be a reverse 1986, with strong Republican gains in the Senate but also strong Democratic gains in the different gubernatorial mansions -- if you continue the analogy, you get weak Republican gains in the House and Republicans taking control of the Senate; those three all sound about right).

If its any of those four, its going to be North Carolina.  Im not seeing Oregon.  Walden is from the complete wrong part of the state and is just not the kind of Mark Hatfield/Bob Packwood/Gordon Smith Republican who can win statewide there.  Colorado has become incredibly tough for Republicans and in New Hampshire, Shaheen is fairly popular and is a good fit for the state.

1986 was a weird situation where you had a lot of incredibly weak Republican candidates who got washed in in the Reagan landslide of 1980 whom nobody expected would ever win.  Im thinking of Mack Mattingly in Georgia and Jeremiah Denton in Alabama.  The retirement of Charles Matthias in Maryland didnt help them either.  Then you had the two Dakota Senators who narrowly lost due to the freak farm crisis.  In Florida, Paula Hawkins likely would have beaten any Democrat other than hugely popular governor Bob Graham, who was a God in the state.  

Most of the Democrats who won in 2008 were carefully recruited and were very strong candidates with the possible exception of Franken.  

[Mr.Phips]

Some of that is just ridiculous beyond the pale really. 75%? yea, get real.


We don't even know who half of the states who is for sure for reelection and who is yea for now and then retires during the next year.

I didn't say there's a 75% chance of taking the Senate. I said there is a 75% chance that at least 1 of Oregon, Colorado, North Carolina, and New Hampshire flip, which seems to be a fairly realistic prognosis. (I personally would say there's maybe a 55% chance of taking the Senate, but this basically entirely going by my gut.)

Of those, I see North Carolina as the only one that has a better than 25% chance of flipping.  I see almost no chance of Oregon or Colorado flipping and things would have to get really, really bad for New Hampshire to flip. 

[Vosem]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_062712.pdf

The evidence in Oregon, as of right now, is for a competitive race.

[Mr.Phips]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_062712.pdf

The evidence in Oregon, as of right now, is for a competitive race.

This poll is over a year old and the point is almost certainly moot, since Walden is almost certain to be NRCC chairman. 

[Ogre Mage]

My post isn't about retirement, but rather which Senate seats in 2014 I am most concerned about.  It's a tough map, but after 2012's dramatic win we have some cushion.

1.  South Dakota -- A state Romney won 58-40.  Tim Johnson has had serious health issues and it sounds like Gov. Rounds is interested.  This looks very difficult.

2.  Alaska -- Romney won the state 55-42.  We really have no business holding this seat, but perhaps Begich can take advantage of the potential GOP primary.

3.  Louisiana -- Romney won 58-41.  Landrieu is perpetually in danger, but she is a tough, battle-tested candidate who knows how to win.  The GOP has not had strong challengers in the past, but that may change this time.

4.  North Carolina -- Romney won 51-48.  NC's swing state status gives Hagan a better environment, but I don't think she is as strong of a candidate as say, Landrieu or Mark Pryor.

5.  Arkansas -- Romney won 61-37.  The GOP has slowly been taking over this state and Blanche Lincoln suffered a 20 point blowout in 2010.  Pryor's approvals look pretty good, but he'll have to be ready for a tough race.

Colorado, New Hampshire and Minnesota might potentially be competitive but right now those Democratic incumbents look tough to beat.

[Vosem]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OR_062712.pdf

The evidence in Oregon, as of right now, is for a competitive race.

This poll is over a year old and the point is almost certainly moot, since Walden is almost certain to be NRCC chairman. 

Ah -- I didn't know about that, I thought Sessions was doing it again. Still, being stuck in the low 40s is not a very good place for Merkley and he remains quite vulnerable. Favored, but vulnerable. Certainly more vulnerable than, say Franken, who polls have consistently showed above 50% and leading his toughest opponents by double-digits.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

My thoughts.
North Carolina -- The state Speaker of the House, Thom Tillis, will run against Hagan. Probably. Hagan starts off favored. Probably.

I can't think of a better idea than running the Speaker of a State House with a 15% approval rating and a bevy of education cuts to be wrapped right around his neck.

Stay out of the legislature and stay out of the current US House delegation, that is my advice to the NC GOP and NRSC here and in most of these states that aren't as red, have a history of Dem representation or aren't fastly trending Republican over multiple cycles.

My preferred candidates would be in this order:
Tom Fetzer - Fmr NC GOP chair 2009-2010, Fmr. Raleigh Mayor
Jim Pendergraff  - Unsuccessfull NC-09 candidate, Fmr. Mecklenburg Co. Sheriff
Robin Hayes - Fmr. Congressman NC-08 1995-2009, NC GOP Chair 2011-2012
Steve Troxler - State Secretary of Agriculture 2005-
Cherie Berry - Commissioner of Labor 2001-

The top two have connections in Wake and Mecklenburg Counties respectively, in either of which a reduced margin could spell trouble for Hagan as she'll need both. I heard annecdotal stories about how Fetzer was considering running for Governor in 2012. He most recently played a role in helping Conservative Paul Newby hold his NC Supreme Court seat this year, after successfully leading the state party to its stunning successes in 2010. Pendergraff is a former Democrat and he only barely lost the primary for NC-09, even after getting burried in advertising by his self-funding opponent. Hayes was in Congress, but has been out of there for four years now almost and won't have the most recent unpopularity dragging him down. He also led the state party this time around and though not as great as 2010, was still fairly successfull (Romney won, Governor, Lt. Governor as of last count and even more legislative seats) and no one is going to raise as a concerns lackluster Council of State performances when the big fish went our way.  Troxler and Berry are names people are familiar with as they have been on statewide ballots in high turnout Presidential years atleast three times. There are some concerns that would make me worry about Berry though, regarding favortism and stuff that the Dems would certainly make an issue of if something there is bad enough. 

[Miles]

My thoughts.
North Carolina -- The state Speaker of the House, Thom Tillis, will run against Hagan. Probably. Hagan starts off favored. Probably.

My preferred candidates would be in this order:
Tom Fetzer - Fmr NC GOP chair 2009-2010, Fmr. Raleigh Mayor
Jim Pendergraff  - Unsuccessfull NC-09 candidate, Fmr. Mecklenburg Co. Sheriff
Robin Hayes - Fmr. Congressman NC-08 1995-2009, NC GOP Chair 2011-2012
Steve Troxler - State Secretary of Agriculture 2005-
Cherie Berry - Commissioner of Labor 2001-

I'm very much hoping it will be Tillis

How bout Paul Coble?

Out of your list, I think Fetzer would be the best; the others are either too old or wouldn't have the fire in their belly, IMO.

The points you make about the GOP running a candidate from Wake or Mecklenburg are very good. They'll need to offset Hagan's margin in the Triad.

[Miles]

My thoughts.
North Carolina -- The state Speaker of the House, Thom Tillis, will run against Hagan. Probably. Hagan starts off favored. Probably.

My preferred candidates would be in this order:
Tom Fetzer - Fmr NC GOP chair 2009-2010, Fmr. Raleigh Mayor
Jim Pendergraff  - Unsuccessfull NC-09 candidate, Fmr. Mecklenburg Co. Sheriff
Robin Hayes - Fmr. Congressman NC-08 1995-2009, NC GOP Chair 2011-2012
Steve Troxler - State Secretary of Agriculture 2005-
Cherie Berry - Commissioner of Labor 2001-

I'm very much hoping it will be Tillis

How bout Paul Coble?

Out of your list, I think Fetzer would be the best; the others are either too old or wouldn't have the fire in their belly, IMO.

The points you make about the GOP running a candidate from Wake or Mecklenburg are very good. They'll need to offset Hagan's margin in the Triad.

I just read a Politico article suggesting that Ellmers should run.

LOL

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

My thoughts.
North Carolina -- The state Speaker of the House, Thom Tillis, will run against Hagan. Probably. Hagan starts off favored. Probably.

My preferred candidates would be in this order:
Tom Fetzer - Fmr NC GOP chair 2009-2010, Fmr. Raleigh Mayor
Jim Pendergraff  - Unsuccessfull NC-09 candidate, Fmr. Mecklenburg Co. Sheriff
Robin Hayes - Fmr. Congressman NC-08 1995-2009, NC GOP Chair 2011-2012
Steve Troxler - State Secretary of Agriculture 2005-
Cherie Berry - Commissioner of Labor 2001-

I'm very much hoping it will be Tillis

How bout Paul Coble?

Out of your list, I think Fetzer would be the best; the others are either too old or wouldn't have the fire in their belly, IMO.

The points you make about the GOP running a candidate from Wake or Mecklenburg are very good. They'll need to offset Hagan's margin in the Triad.

Yea, I know you want Tillis, that is why we should try not to give you Tillis.

Maybe, but Holding really rolled over Coble in NC-13 GOP primary, so I don't know if he has the fire anymore either. But he would be a potential wake country candidate, though not as powerfull as Fetzer, would have similar appeal as a statewide candidate. Another former Mayor of Raleigh if my memory serves me. (When the hell did Raleigh have time for so many Republican mayors, the 1990's must have been fun . All I can remember is Dems having come here in 2002).

NC is an urbanizing state, we need canddiates from the Metros.
McCrory and Forest - Charlotte area
Burr - Winston-Salem
 
Raleigh is the missing piece of the pie.

No one from rural areas unless they are already statewide officials or have some kind of built up advantage of some kind, and again no current Congressmen or State Legislators.

I was going to PM you about 2014, but full disclosure is always better.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

My thoughts.
North Carolina -- The state Speaker of the House, Thom Tillis, will run against Hagan. Probably. Hagan starts off favored. Probably.

My preferred candidates would be in this order:
Tom Fetzer - Fmr NC GOP chair 2009-2010, Fmr. Raleigh Mayor
Jim Pendergraff  - Unsuccessfull NC-09 candidate, Fmr. Mecklenburg Co. Sheriff
Robin Hayes - Fmr. Congressman NC-08 1995-2009, NC GOP Chair 2011-2012
Steve Troxler - State Secretary of Agriculture 2005-
Cherie Berry - Commissioner of Labor 2001-

I'm very much hoping it will be Tillis

How bout Paul Coble?

Out of your list, I think Fetzer would be the best; the others are either too old or wouldn't have the fire in their belly, IMO.

The points you make about the GOP running a candidate from Wake or Mecklenburg are very good. They'll need to offset Hagan's margin in the Triad.

I just read a Politico article suggesting that Ellmers should run.

LOL

READ MY LIPS NO CURRENT CONGRESSPEOPLE!!! and we got to hold that line!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

At best she'd be Rick Berg, at worst, she'd be Dick/Todd

[Miles]

My thoughts.
North Carolina -- The state Speaker of the House, Thom Tillis, will run against Hagan. Probably. Hagan starts off favored. Probably.

My preferred candidates would be in this order:
Tom Fetzer - Fmr NC GOP chair 2009-2010, Fmr. Raleigh Mayor
Jim Pendergraff  - Unsuccessfull NC-09 candidate, Fmr. Mecklenburg Co. Sheriff
Robin Hayes - Fmr. Congressman NC-08 1995-2009, NC GOP Chair 2011-2012
Steve Troxler - State Secretary of Agriculture 2005-
Cherie Berry - Commissioner of Labor 2001-

I'm very much hoping it will be Tillis

How bout Paul Coble?

Out of your list, I think Fetzer would be the best; the others are either too old or wouldn't have the fire in their belly, IMO.

The points you make about the GOP running a candidate from Wake or Mecklenburg are very good. They'll need to offset Hagan's margin in the Triad.

Yea, I know you want Tillis, that is why we should try not to give you Tillis.

Maybe, but Holding really rolled over Coble in NC-13 GOP primary, so I don't know if he has the fire anymore either. But he would be a potential wake country candidate, though not as powerfull as Fetzer, would have similar appeal as a statewide candidate. Another former Mayor of Raleigh if my memory serves me. (When the hell did Raleigh have time for so many Republican mayors, the 1990's must have been fun . All I can remember is Dems having come here in 2002).

NC is an urbanizing state, we need canddiates from the Metros.
McCrory and Forest - Charlotte area
Burr - Winston-Salem
 
Raleigh is the missing piece of the pie.

No one from rural areas unless they are already statewide officials or have some kind of built up advantage of some kind, and again no current Congressmen or State Legislators.

I was going to PM you about 2014, but full disclosure is always better.

Oh, feel free to PM me anyway!

I agree; Republicans need to run candidates from the metro areas to cut into the Democratic advantage there.

I was quite surprised at Holding's margin over Coble for CD13 too. Well, Charlotte was a pretty Republican-friendly city too with the Myrick-Vinroot-McCrory sequence of mayors. I think voters in my area (south Charlotte) could still be voting Republican downballot for quite some time.

I thought that Ilario Pantano would have a been a good candidate if the NCGOP wanted a fresh face or tea party type; though, after 2 failed tries at Congress, he's damaged goods now. He's have bases at Wilimington and Jacksonville, but the coast is trending Republican already anyway.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

McIntyre burried him with ads full of old peolpe saying "Illario Pantano, don't touch my Social Security". Also, he reminds me a lot of Allen West, even down to the war record issues.

Isn't Tillis also going to have his hands full this year and most of next. I mean Pat wants to reform the tax code, overhaul education, reform DOT and infrastructure, pass voter ID, and general reglatory reform. They have to do something about OBamacare implementation and healthcare in general. And that is on top of the budget process. How is he going to run the chamber and be all over campaigning and rising money to run against Hagan?


Whoever is going to run, needs to get started by June or July of next year.

[Miles]

McIntyre burried him with ads full of old peolpe saying "Illario Pantano, don't touch my Social Security". Also, he reminds me a lot of Allen West, even down to the war record issues.

Isn't Tillis also going to have his hands full this year and most of next. I mean Pat wants to reform the tax code, overhaul education, reform DOT and infrastructure, pass voter ID, and general reglatory reform. They have to do something about OBamacare implementation and healthcare in general. And that is on top of the budget process. How is he going to run the chamber and be all over campaigning and rising money to run against Hagan?


Whoever is going to run, needs to get started by June or July of next year.

Pantano struck me more of a Rubio than a West, but I doubt we'll see much more of him anyway.

Yes, I would imagine that the Assembly will be very busy (for better or worse).

[BM]

Politico really doesn't do its research when talking about "rising stars" and the like.

Ellmers would be a fantastic nominee though

[musictomyeyes]

My thoughts....

Potential Republican Pickups (in order of likelihood):

1. Alaska - A lot of Republican heavyweights are exploring the idea of challenging Begich. Though there's nothing particularly offensive about the man or his tenure as Senator, any competent and well-backed Republican should be able to take him out. This assumes, of course, that the Tea Party doesn't gum up the works and leave the Republicans with a gawd-awful candidate like Joe Miller.

2. South Dakota - Johnson will likely take a bow. If each party were to nominate their strongest-available candidates, we'd probably see something like Rounds vs. Herseth-Sandlin, with Rounds winning. The Democrats' only hope would be if their candidate was able to pull off some sort South Dakota version of Heidi Heitkamp's charm blitz and ground game....which only barely worked for Heitkamp, in a Presidential election year, against a much weaker opponent than Rounds.

3. Louisiana - Landrieu is certainly a veteran of the campaign battlefield, and is linked to some well-"oiled" fundraising machines; but with Louisiana turning as scarlet as it has in the past couple of election cycles, the Republicans could (and probably will) nominate someone as repulsive as Todd Akin and still win this one.

4. West Virginia - If Rockefeller stays, which I think is unlikely, I feel that he could fend off most Republican challengers, even Capito. Without him, Capito is the odds-on favourite in the general....but I can easily envision a scenario where she gets Tea Party'd in the primary, which would leave the door open for one of the WV Democratic Party's blue-dog good-ol'-boys to make it a competitive race. As it stands now though, the most likely outcome seems to be Capito waltzing into this seat without too much difficulty.

5. Arkansas - Another state that's trending heavily red, but Mark Pryor is no Blanche Lincoln. Pryor has signalled his intention to run again, and I think he's the favourite. His approval ratings are still above water, and are actually 10 points more favourable than the Lincoln-slaying Republican senator, John Boozman. This doesn't mean that the Republicans don't have a shot - they certainly do, and a number of heavyweights are sizing up their prospects before they jump into the race. But 2014 isn't likely to be the same kind of tidal-wave election that 2010 was, and candidate quality will play heavily into the outcome. Pryor is a good fit for this state, and it will take a very strong effort on the part of the Republicans to dislodge him.

6. North Carolina - A lot will depend on who the Republicans pick as a candidate, but Kay Hagan ran far ahead of Obama in 2008. Many of the culture-war-style attacks used against her by Liddy Dole ("Godless Americans") may have worked if they used in other Southern states, but they seemed to backfire in NC. Combined with the relatively close presidential result this year, North Carolina is looking increasingly purple, which is good news for Hagan.

7. Montana - Much hay was once made of Baucus' sinking approval rating, but those ratings now seem to be back on the brighter side of things. Also, looking at the results of the various statewide races in Montana this year, Montana isn't particularly averse to voting one way for president and a different way for other offices. Baucus has been an institution in Montana politics for a very long time, and with perhaps the state's most prolific Republican, Denny Rehberg, being dispatched by Jon Tester with relative ease, I see little reason to believe that Baucus is in any sort of imminent danger.

Other states: New Hampshire might be a plausible pickup opportunity if things are especially bad for the Dems, but I'm not sure I see it happening. Attempts to pick up any other states would probably be foolhardy for the Republicans.

Potential Democratic Pickups:

1. Maine. But only if Susan Collins retires. If she doesn't this stays R...unless Collins gets Tea Party'd. Then this becomes an easy D pickup. An indy candidacy by someone like Eliot Cutler could shake things up, but even Cutler is solidly left-leaning.

I don't really see any other options for Democrats. Maybe if Mitch McConnell gets torpedoed by a rape-loving Republican or something, they'd have an outside shot at Kentucky, but that's it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jerry Abramson and Alison Lundergan Grimes would be strong candidates against McConnell.  Beasher would be too, but I don't think he is interested.

[Miles]

Jerry Abramson and Alison Lundergan Grimes would be strong candidates against McConnell.  Beasher would be too, but I don't think he is interested.

Grimes could run against Barr now.

[RogueBeaver]

I'm with Vosem overall.

[adma]

My thoughts....

Potential Republican Pickups (in order of likelihood):

1. Alaska - A lot of Republican heavyweights are exploring the idea of challenging Begich. Though there's nothing particularly offensive about the man or his tenure as Senator, any competent and well-backed Republican should be able to take him out. This assumes, of course, that the Tea Party doesn't gum up the works and leave the Republicans with a gawd-awful candidate like Joe Miller.

Absolutely crazy thought I had; but...Sarah Palin?!?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

My thoughts....

Potential Republican Pickups (in order of likelihood):

1. Alaska - A lot of Republican heavyweights are exploring the idea of challenging Begich. Though there's nothing particularly offensive about the man or his tenure as Senator, any competent and well-backed Republican should be able to take him out. This assumes, of course, that the Tea Party doesn't gum up the works and leave the Republicans with a gawd-awful candidate like Joe Miller.

Absolutely crazy thought I had; but...Sarah Palin?!?

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE let her be the Republican nominee!

[Frodo]

My thoughts....

Potential Republican Pickups (in order of likelihood):

1. Alaska - A lot of Republican heavyweights are exploring the idea of challenging Begich. Though there's nothing particularly offensive about the man or his tenure as Senator, any competent and well-backed Republican should be able to take him out. This assumes, of course, that the Tea Party doesn't gum up the works and leave the Republicans with a gawd-awful candidate like Joe Miller.

Absolutely crazy thought I had; but...Sarah Palin?!?

After leaving Alaska in mid-term to pursue the vice-presidency, and then a career in the right-wing media world, no one in Alaska is prepared to entrust her ever again with public office.