Romney/Democrat and Obama/Republican congressional districts

[Mr.Phips]

IL-6, IL-14 - Any chance Romney lost these districts?

No way Romney lost IL-06.  Obama didnt even carry the DuPage portion, which is the most Democratic part of the district.  Same deal with IL-14. 

[Mr.Phips]

IL-13 goes 50%-48% Romney.  Lots of narrow Romney districts everywhere. 

[minionofmidas]

IL-6, IL-14 - Any chance Romney lost these districts?

Doubt it very much. Swing in the state was too large.

IL-13 goes 50%-48% Romney.  Lots of narrow Romney districts everywhere. 

Woah. Pretty good showing from Gill if that's true (and I did see Romney retook Sangamon.)

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like NJ-05 did narrowly go to Romney. 

[krazen1211]

Looks like NJ-05 did narrowly go to Romney. 

As did NJ-07. Hunterdon County just swung too far right.

[Mr.Phips]

CO-06 is another Obama/Republican district.  Goes 51%-47% Obama, just a micron to the right of the state as a whole.  

[Mr.Phips]

NY-19 is another Obama/Republican district.  Obama takes it 52%-46%.

[Mr.Phips]

Yet another Obama/Republican district, NV-03.  Obama takes it 50%-48%. 

[Mr.Phips]

OR-05 nearly flips to a Romney/Democrat district.  Obama wins here 50%-48%.  Really stupid for Democrats to agree to that "compromise" that moved most of the Multnomah county portion out of the district.  They should have just deadlocked the process and let the Secratary of State(who is a Dem) draw the map and unpack the third. 

[Mr.Phips]

WA-03 goes 50%-48% Romney. 

[Mr.Phips]

Here's an Obama Republican district that nobody seems to have mentioned.  WA-08 goes 50%-48% for Obama.  I just need to get county info on California and ill have a pretty good idea on all of the district.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

My best guess: NJ-05 would have been a Romney/Democrat district had Steve Rothman decided to challenge Scott Garrett (who won a non-targeted race with a miserably low 55%) instead of Bill Pascrell.

[Mr.Phips]

My best guess: NJ-05 would have been a Romney/Democrat district had Steve Rothman decided to challenge Scott Garrett (who won a non-targeted race with a miserably low 55%) instead of Bill Pascrell.

Yeah, im pretty sure Rothman is now kicking himself. 

[Smash255]

Found another Obama/Republican district, NY-02.  Obama 52%, Romney 47%.  Sandy bump?

Redistricting likely played a larger role.  King's district was previously an eastern Nassau district (with a small portion cut out in east-central Nassau) that went into certain select spots along Suffolk's south shore.  Now the district is more of a south shore district and covers more of Suffolk and doesn't just cover certain select spots.

Some Dem areas were moved out, Glen Cove, Long Beach, southern Merrick, however more Dem areas were added, N Amityville, Copiague Wyandanch, Wheatley Heights, Brentwood, further into Bay Shore.  The district also lost some GOP pockets, portions of Wantagh, N. Merrick, NE Nassau.

While the geographically it is a bit different, it seems like King and Israel's districts are similar to what they were prior to the 02 redistricting.   At the time Israel's district was a few points more Democratic than King's.  The incumbent protection gerrymander made Israel's district more Democratic, and King's more Republican.  This redistricting did the reverse, made Israel's district more Republican and King's more Democratic.  Israel's district is still more Democratic than King's, but closer in line to the difference it was between the two prior to the 02 redistricting, than the difference after the 02 redistricting.

[Mr.Phips]

VA-10 is looking incredibly close.  I have Romney ahead by about 3,000 votes, but there could be some late Dem votes in Fairfax that could swing it.  Im pretty sure Kaine narrowly won the district.

[krazen1211]

VA-10 is looking incredibly close.  I have Romney ahead by about 3,000 votes, but there could be some late Dem votes in Fairfax that could swing it.  Im pretty sure Kaine narrowly won the district.

I checked VA-10 precinct by precinct. It went for Romney. The Fairfax portion went for Romney as well.


Oh, and the state did it too.

Link

[Mr.Phips]

VA-10 is looking incredibly close.  I have Romney ahead by about 3,000 votes, but there could be some late Dem votes in Fairfax that could swing it.  Im pretty sure Kaine narrowly won the district.

I checked VA-10 precinct by precinct. It went for Romney. The Fairfax portion went for Romney as well.


Oh, and the state did it too.

Link

You are correct. 

[Donerail]

Romney/Democrat Confirmed:

UT-04
NC-07
WV-03
GA-12

Romney/Democrat Plausible:

TX-23
AZ-1
AZ-2
AZ-9
FL-18
MN-07

Obama/Republican Confirmed:

CA-31 (fluke)
NJ-02
NJ-03 (Burlington County section went for Obama by about 35k, Ocean County section for Romney by at most 25k)
IA-03 (52% Obama)

Obama/Republican Plausible:

PA-08 (though I think Romney snagged this by a hair)
IL-13
MN-02
MN-03
FL-27 (lots of swing here)
MI-06 (though I think Romney snagged this by a hair)
NV-03
NY-19

FL-18 probably went for Obama by a hair.  Im pretty sure NY-11 switched to Obama/Republican, as Obama actually carried the Staten Island part of the district(he lost it in 2008).  I think NJ-05 also switched to Obama/Republican.  MI-07 may also be Obama/Republican.  Walberg wildly underperformed against a nobody again.  I think TX-23 went to Obama again by a hair.  Obama did about the same as he did in 2008 in this area.  FL-13(Bill Young) is also a likely Obama/Republican district.  VA-02 is possible to as an Obama/Republican district.  

WI-07 was also probably an Obama/Republican seat.

It actually looks like Obama still might have carried a narrow majority of the nations Congressional districts, even as he only won the popular vote by two points.  Wouldnt have expected this.  

FL-13 has leaned D for the last few cycles Presidentially. It's a deadly trap that lures promising politicians into attempting to challenge Bill Young; they are subsequently slaughtered.

Democrats just need to wait until Young(blonde Wayne Newton) retires and then they would probably have a 50/50 shot at picking up that seat. 

Doubtful; not with Latvala, Brandes, and Baker still around.

That's what Democrats said about TN-08.  "Oh we've got hugely popular State Senator Roy Herron who holds a state Senate district in the most Republican part of the district, we'll easily hold that one".  He lost by 20 points to a gospel singer. 

The difference being that said State Senator wasn't A.) A mayor of the largest city in the district and mentioned as a Cabinet pick for a Romney administration, B.) The (future) President of the FL Senate, or C.) Able to flood his campaign with millions of his own money, like Baker, Latvala, or Brandes (respectively). Also, the Tennessee Republicans are actually organized in some fashion. FL Dems are not.

[krazen1211]

Bumped for new results.

FL-18 went for Romney easily.

Minnesota is an interesting state, W won 5 districts here.

[krazen1211]

OR-05 nearly flips to a Romney/Democrat district.  Obama wins here 50%-48%.  Really stupid for Democrats to agree to that "compromise" that moved most of the Multnomah county portion out of the district.  They should have just deadlocked the process and let the Secratary of State(who is a Dem) draw the map and unpack the third. 

I don't believe that works for congressional redistricting, only legislative.

Oregon might gain a 6th seat. It will be interesting.

[Miles]

I wouldn't call a 52/48 win in FL-18 an 'easy' win for Romney.

I read that if WV loses a seat in the next census, which seems more likely than not, OR would be the beneficiary.

[Miles]

The Maricopa precicnt numbers were finally out today. AZ-09 was 50.8/46.5 Obama, basically unchanged from 51.3/47.4 Obama in 2008.

[hopper]

My best guess: NJ-05 would have been a Romney/Democrat district had Steve Rothman decided to challenge Scott Garrett (who won a non-targeted race with a miserably low 55%) instead of Bill Pascrell.

Yeah, im pretty sure Rothman is now kicking himself.  

Rothman is too liberal for the district. He would have lost to a Moderate Republican in 2014 next cycle anyway even if he won this year over Garrett.

[hopper]

Looks like NJ-05 did narrowly go to Romney. 

As did NJ-07. Hunterdon County just swung too far right.

Yeah Obama won Somerset County but got blown out in Hunterdon County.

[Mr.Phips]

Pretty sure CA-10 is also an Obama/Republican district.  The district is pretty much all of Stanislaus(which Obama won by around the same margin as in 2008) and some of San Joaquin, whose  portion is a little more Dem than Stanislaus.