PPP-IA: D: Clinton 58% Biden 17% R: Huckabee 15% Christie 12% Rubio 12% Ryan 12%

[Mr. Morden]

PPP polled Iowa caucuses for both parties, Nov. 3-4, just before the election:

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/11/iowademocrats2016.html

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/11/iowarepublicans2016.html

Dems:

Clinton 58%
Biden 17%
Cuomo 6%
Warren 3%
Patrick 1%
Schweitzer 1%
O'Malley 0%
Warner 0%

If Clinton doesn't run:

Biden 40%
Cuomo 14%
Warren 9%
O'Malley 4%
Patrick 2%
Schweitzer 1%
Warner 1%

If neither Biden nor Clinton run:

Cuomo 30%
Warren 13%
Patrick 4%
O'Malley 3%
Schweitzer 2%
Warner 2%

GOP

Huckabee 15%
Christie 12%
Rubio 12%
Ryan 12%
J. Bush 11%
Santorum 10%
Rice 9%
Rand Paul 5%
Palin 4%

[Mr. Morden]

Favorability / unfavorability among members of their own party:

Clinton 86 / 11% for +75%
Biden 85 / 15% for +70%
Warren 37 / 11% for +26%
Cuomo 38 / 16% for +22%
Schweitzer 12 / 7% for +5%
Patrick 14 / 11% for +3%
Warner 12 / 11% for +1%
O'Malley 9 / 13% for -4%

Ryan 83 / 13% for +70%
Rice 75 / 13% for +62%
Huckabee 68 / 16% for +52%
Jeb Bush 60 / 11% for +49%
Rubio 59 / 11% for +48%
Santorum 64 / 18% for +46%
Palin 60 / 26% for +34%
Christie 55 / 21% for +34%
Rand Paul 48 / 28% for +20%

On the GOP side, who leads among….
Tea Party members: Christie
non-Tea Party members: Bush/Huckabee tie
not sure if Tea Party member: Huckabee
Evangelicals: Huckabee
non-Evangelicals: Rubio
moderates: Christie
somewhat conservative: Huckabee
very conservative: Rubio
men: Rubio
women: Huckabee/Ryan tie
Republicans: Huckabee/Ryan tie
Independents: Huckabee
18-45 years old: Santorum
46-65 years old: Ryan
over 65: Huckabee

They should have actually included 15 year-olds in the poll, since they'll be 18 by January 2016!  Also, Rice actually does slightly better among men than women, though the difference is small (10%-8%).

On the Democratic side, Clinton does the same among men and women.  Warren's about the same with both sexes as well.  Meanwhile, Cuomo does a bit better with men, and Biden does a bit better with women.

[Mr. Morden]

The poll doesn't really tell us anything new on the Democratic side.  We've seen very similar results in PPP's previous polls.

On the GOP side however, it does tell us something new.  The only 2016 poll that PPP had conducted post-Ryan selection as Romney's running mate was in Florida, where Rubio and Bush have homefield advantage.  Now we see where Ryan stands in Iowa after a few months as VP nominee, and it doesn't actually look that impressive.  He has near universal name recognition, and near universal favorability among Republicans.  Yet that translates into only 12% support for president on the GOP side?  (Compare that to Clinton on the Dem. side, who has similar favorability, but is at a towering 58% support for prez.)  After a few months as the party's VP nominee, and the darling of the base, Ryan should be doing better than this.  It looks like Republicans like him as #2, but don't yet think he's ready for #1.

It's somewhat better news for Christie and Rubio.  PPP's previous polls had Christie doing better in NH and nationally than he was doing in Iowa.  So if this poll is accurate, then Christie's probably slightly ahead in NH and nationally.  His favorability among Republicans may have been dinged slightly by his cozying up to Obama post-Sandy, but not enough to matter that much.

Meanwhile, Rubio has slightly lower name recognition than any of the other Republicans being polled here, and hasn't been in the news recently nearly as much as Christie or Ryan, but he's still tied with him.  Good sign for him.

[Mr. Morden]

18-45 years old: Santorum

Wait... what?

Yes, 17% for Santorum among Iowa Republican voters 45 and younger, which is his best age group.

Same would actually hold true in the 2012 Iowa caucus entrance poll, if you took out the Paul voters.  Among non-Paul voters in Iowa this year, Santorum won the youngs, and Romney the olds.