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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Northern New York
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Author Topic: Northern New York  (Read 1520 times)
soniquemd21921
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« on: November 08, 2012, 12:41:16 pm »

Is this area starting to go the way of Vermont and western Massachusetts? It re-elected it's first Democratic congressman again, and Obama did better than he did in 2008 here. Yet just 10-15 years ago this region was solidly Republican (as it had been since the 1850's).

What's going on in this area? Is it seeing an influx of liberal city types the way it's neighboring state did?
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patrick1
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« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2012, 11:06:18 pm »


There are a # of factors but the most basic one is that the GOP is a damaged brand in many areas of the country.  The Southrons hijacked the party and pushed an agenda and culture that many weren't comfortable with. The Bush years riddled it with bullets.

After a weak recovery this election should have been closer. However, the GOP has to appeal to their base with losing issues- making them un-electable in many areas.  The Rove/Bush formula for electoral success is obviously done but some still refuse to accept that
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2012, 06:46:27 pm »


This word really needs to make a comeback.
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PR
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« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2012, 06:49:52 pm »

Steve King is from Iowa. Michelle Bachmann is from Minnesota. Sarah Palin is from Idaho/Alaska.
Paul Ryan is from Wisconsin.

It's not just a "Southern" problem.

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soniquemd21921
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« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2012, 07:33:26 pm »
« Edited: November 12, 2012, 08:31:52 pm by soniquemd21921 »

I often wonder if the old Yankee Republican strongholds would still be Republican (or at least competitive) had the "southern drift" never happened.

But consider how in 1972, despite the Southern Strategy, Nixon had no problem sweeping Landon Country (he topped 60% in ME, NH, VT, upstate NY and northern PA)...
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Grandma got sacrificed to the Merrill Lynch bull
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« Reply #5 on: November 13, 2012, 12:13:42 am »

I often wonder if the old Yankee Republican strongholds would still be Republican (or at least competitive) had the "southern drift" never happened.

But consider how in 1972, despite the Southern Strategy, Nixon had no problem sweeping Landon Country (he topped 60% in ME, NH, VT, upstate NY and northern PA)...

1968 would be a better example, because in 1972 that was true of most of the United States.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #6 on: November 13, 2012, 12:44:21 am »

In an alternate universe, a certain segment of my party doesn't get their panties in a wad and Congressman Scozzafava at least holds the House seat for the GOP.
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АverroŽs 🦉
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« Reply #7 on: November 13, 2012, 09:37:04 am »

I've been confused about this too. In another discussion, one poster (I can't remember who) suggested that the region has a pro-incumbent bias, but that explanation doesn't seem satisfying. Other than south-central Ohio, this is the only largely white, largely rural part of the country that swung toward Obama; there must be a reason for this.

It's worth noting that the congressional election was close (51-48, I think) only because Doheny, the Republican challenger, spent a large sum of money and ran a very well organized campaign. I imagine that his GotV must have reached nearly all likely Republican voters in the district. Owens' campaign, in contrast, was a bit sloppy. Doheny seemed surprised at his lost on election night, commenting on the region's shift away from the Republican Party in his concession speech. Republicans will have a lot more difficulty winning this seat with a less motivated candidate who can't self-fund.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2012, 09:55:03 pm »

I suspect a lot has to do with the type of Republicans here.  Many are moderate Republicans who probably think the party has swung too far to the right.  As for why it didn't happen earlier, my only guess is many people are loyal to a certain party and always vote for it no matter what; much like whites in the South didn't swing to the Democrats overnight, it took time; so the older voters continued to vote GOP out of tradition, but as they died off, they weren't able to replace them with newer voters as the newer voters voted more based on ideology rather than tradition.  Otherwise every four years, some of the older voters die and some new one's either through becoming of age or naturalization (not really a factor here) are eligible to vote so you have to take this into account. 
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