County Swing Map
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Author Topic: County Swing Map  (Read 18301 times)
BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #50 on: November 15, 2012, 07:54:44 AM »

Did military areas swing more to Romney a lot more than anywhere else? Perhaps more than Coal and Mormon counties?

I don't know why you'd think that. The Florida Panhandle and the Hampton Roads area of Virginia are the two biggest military regions in the country, and both were pretty steady.


I was expecting that Obama's military cuts to somewhat hurt him in Military dependent areas. I guess the bin Laden killing sort of evened it out and kept them steady I guess? 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #51 on: November 15, 2012, 05:06:25 PM »

Updated map taking into account further votes, corrections, etc.



It's funny how NV, IL and PA look like disasters for Democrats if you don't know about population density. 

Does anyone know what would have swung Boston toward Obama?  Maybe increased progressive turnout for the close senate race 
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #52 on: November 15, 2012, 06:37:41 PM »

Does anyone know what would have swung Boston toward Obama?

It's urban and it's a state capital.
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shua
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« Reply #53 on: November 16, 2012, 02:17:24 AM »

Does anyone know what would have swung Boston toward Obama?

It's urban and it's a state capital.

what connection are you suggesting?
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Sol
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« Reply #54 on: November 16, 2012, 11:55:16 AM »

Updated map taking into account further votes, corrections, etc.



It's funny how NV, IL and PA look like disasters for Democrats if you don't know about population density. 

Does anyone know what would have swung Boston toward Obama?  Maybe increased progressive turnout for the close senate race 
Correction from 2008? Obama did worse Mass. than in 2004.
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shua
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« Reply #55 on: November 17, 2012, 03:08:56 AM »

Updated map taking into account further votes, corrections, etc.



It's funny how NV, IL and PA look like disasters for Democrats if you don't know about population density. 

Does anyone know what would have swung Boston toward Obama?  Maybe increased progressive turnout for the close senate race 
Correction from 2008? Obama did worse Mass. than in 2004.

That's true of most of MA, not just Boston - since 2004 had a MA Senator running for Pres.  If anything was a correction to the norm, I'd expect it to have been 2008, not 2012.  Or maybe  Bostonians liked McCain that much more than Romney?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #56 on: November 18, 2012, 06:09:58 AM »

I would love to see a 2000-2012 swing map.
So I made one.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #57 on: December 03, 2012, 08:54:57 PM »

Corn belt?

1. President Obama didn't campaign in it this time.

2. Ethanol subsidies kaputt.

3. Huge drought hurt the corn crop and the local economies. 
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homelycooking
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« Reply #58 on: December 03, 2012, 09:02:19 PM »

That's true of most of MA, not just Boston - since 2004 had a MA Senator running for Pres.  If anything was a correction to the norm, I'd expect it to have been 2008, not 2012.  Or maybe  Bostonians liked McCain that much more than Romney?

Boston itself swung slightly toward Romney: Obama's much larger swings in Chelsea and Everett caused Suffolk County to swing in the opposite direction.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #59 on: December 03, 2012, 09:05:20 PM »

Updated map taking into account further votes, corrections, etc.



It's funny how NV, IL and PA look like disasters for Democrats if you don't know about population density. 

Does anyone know what would have swung Boston toward Obama?  Maybe increased progressive turnout for the close senate race 

And how if you don't know anything about racial voting, it looks like Obama's a great candidate for Dixie. Tongue
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old timey villain
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« Reply #60 on: December 21, 2012, 12:51:11 PM »

It was good to see Metro Atlanta continue its decade long swing towards the Democratic party. Obama actually improved from 2008 in several counties, including the big one - Gwinnett. I hope it continues.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #61 on: June 14, 2021, 08:37:24 PM »

It was good to see Metro Atlanta continue its decade long swing towards the Democratic party. Obama actually improved from 2008 in several counties, including the big one - Gwinnett. I hope it continues.

Indeed it did, to the point that Biden won Gwinnett County by nearly 18% last year after Obama had lost it by 9% in 2012.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #62 on: June 14, 2021, 08:39:22 PM »

It was good to see Metro Atlanta continue its decade long swing towards the Democratic party. Obama actually improved from 2008 in several counties, including the big one - Gwinnett. I hope it continues.

Indeed it did, to the point that Biden won Gwinnett County by nearly 18% last year after Obama had lost it by 9% in 2012.
The improvement was even more remarkable in Forsyth County, where Biden got double the vote Obama did in 2012.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #63 on: July 17, 2021, 06:10:03 PM »

It's just striking how in many states, particularly in the Midwest as well as some others (MO, IN, WI, MI, ND, OR, WY, MT, UT, NV, WA, and TN, to name some) had every county swing toward Romney, while in MS and other southern states tons of counties swung toward Obama (majority-black counties in many cases). Orleans Parish (New Orleans) swung huge toward Obama. (On the other hand, no county in TN swung toward Obama.) There also appears to be some correlation between swinging toward Obama in 2012 to swinging toward Trump in 2020 - Southeast FL and South TX, prominent examples of Trump gaining ground even as he lost reelection nationally, swung toward Obama in 2012 as well, even as Obama did worse in 2012 than in 2008. What I also find quite interesting is that 3 of MA's 14 counties (Suffolk and two in Western Massachusets) swung further to the left (all counties in MA supported Obama in both 2008 and 2012) - even though 2012 was a redder year nationally than 2008, and the fact that the GOP nominee was Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #64 on: February 05, 2022, 12:59:28 AM »
« Edited: February 05, 2022, 01:06:33 AM by Calthrina950 »

Hard Romney Swing Areas
1. Appalachia/Coal
2. Mormons/Utah
3. Corn areas of IL, IN, MO
4. Oil in ND, MT, TX
5. NE WI. I have no idea why.

Obama swing areas:
1. Black Belt
2. Sandy-hit areas (NYC, Jersey Shore)
3. Miami and Orlando areas (non-Cuban latin@ growth)
4. Mexican border areas, from the Rio Grande valley to Imperial county
5. Upstate NY (no idea why)

I'm not sure what explains Upstate New York, but the other areas can be explained relatively easily. In 2012, black turnout reached its highest level in history (at ~66% of all eligible black voters), and for the first and only time, blacks turned out at higher rates than whites did. Thus, Obama was able to receive a greater raw number of black votes, although Romney did marginally better (7%) than McCain had (5%) in terms of percentage. This helps to explain why Obama generally did better in the Black Belt, and why Louisiana and Mississippi-two of the blackest states in the Union-swung towards him. It also explains his gains in the Atlanta Metropolitan Area.

Hurricane Sandy, as noted here, clearly benefited Obama in the New York City metropolitan area and in New Jersey. Obama flipped Staten Island that year, winning it by 2.57%, after having lost it by 4.05% to McCain in 2008. Manhattan, however, actually swung against Obama-the only one of the NYC boroughs to do so. I can only assume that was a reflection of Romney's improvement among suburban, educated, and wealthier voters compared to McCain.

The Miami, Orlando, and Mexican border swings can be explained by Obama's improvement among Hispanics. He got 71% of the Hispanic vote in 2012, compared to 67% in 2008. I assume that his stances on immigration-particularly his support for Dreamers and for comprehensive immigration reform-benefited him, and probably also his economic stances, while Romney came across as an out of touch hardliner to many Hispanic voters. The Obama campaign also seems to have engaged in more effective outreach towards Hispanics. Obama did significantly better among Cubans and also capitalized on the growing Puerto Rican vote in Central Florida. Had he not improved among Hispanics, he would have lost Florida to Romney.

Obama also improved among Asian voters in 2012 compared to 2008. So in general, he did better among minority voters overall in his reelection than he had in his first electoral bid, and this partially offset his losses among white voters (as he fell from 43% to 39% of the white vote). Of course, they didn't offset them entirely, and the heavy swings to Romney in much of the rural West, Midwest, and Appalachia reflect Obama's losses among that group, as does Romney's improvement in most suburban and white-collar areas.
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