Nate Silver was wrong

[Benj]

Unnecessarily provocative title.

Ohio wasn't the tipping point state. Colorado was the tipping point state, unless the late-counted votes there put it ahead of Pennsylvania or behind Virginia. Ohio wasn't even next to the tipping point state. (Virginia was.)

Nevada
Pennsylvania
Colorado <- tipping point state
Virginia
Ohio <- less Obama than the country
Florida
North Carolina <- voted for Romney

[Brittain33]

Yes, Ohio finished significantly closer than the polling predicted.

[LastVoter]

Nate Silver was ignoring the race issue.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

He missed Montana and North Dakota senatorial too. To be fair, those were difficult to predict. But his odds were always too bullish for the Republicans.

[Nichlemn]

Nate predicted a 50% chance OH would be the tipping point state. It wasn't. Is this really a big deal? All the battleground states were close to the national average (that's what makes them battlegrounds), so divergences of a percentage point or two are not unprecedented.

Though I agree with this assessment that  the results don't prove Nate is a prediction god. I'd wager Nate would agree. Calling every state isn't really that hard, but having properly calibrated probabilities is. And there are just such small samples of Presidential elections that you're not going to get a significant sample size.

[Marokai Backbeat]

When Ohio was called by the news networks, it was the state necessary to put Obama over the 270 mark. I don't even necessarily love Nate Silver the way some others do, but that's all that needs to be said, really.

That, and that he was right about almost everything, even moreso than in 2008 when he already had a pretty good accuracy. Right-wingers worked themselves into a frenzy hating on his analysis and hey doesn't he look like a total fag too? But he turned out to be right everywhere it mattered. End of story.

[J. J.]

Yes, Ohio finished significantly closer than the polling predicted.

Well, some of the polling.  Both PPP and Rasmussen were close. 

[Benj]

Not really ragging on Nate Silver, just making a joke to point out that Ohio wasn't as important as everyone made it out to be.

Also, for what it's worth, Obama had a built-in electoral vote advantage of about two popular vote points. Colorado, as the tipping point state, was 2 points more Democratic than the nation.

[wan]

hehe democraticunderground.com is way better

[Likely Voter]

It turns out that battlegrounds won by Gore and/or Kerry (WI, NH, IA) plus the Western states with trending Latino growth (NV+CO) was Obama's firewall, which makes sense.  I think over half the money was spent on FL,OH,VA and it turns out Obama didn't need any of them (or NC).

[Lief 🗽]

There are still 200,000 provisional ballots to be counted, the vast majority of which will be for Obama. His margin should increase.

[Brittain33]

There are still 200,000 provisional ballots to be counted, the vast majority of which will be for Obama. His margin should increase.

Aha, that would explain why it wasn't closer to the 4 point margin in polls.

[milhouse24]

I still think OHio has a bunch shenanigans with voting.  You just know the Unions are stuffing the ballots.  They really hate Romney. 

Dead people vote as well.

[Benj]

There are still 200,000 provisional ballots to be counted, the vast majority of which will be for Obama. His margin should increase.

Probably to some extent. There are provisionals in every state, though, just somewhat more than usual in Ohio. Also, even if there weren't, it's pretty unlikely they'd be enough to do more than maybe push Ohio above Virginia on the tipping point list.

[King]

You can only fight scientific truth for so long...

[Kaine for Senate '18]

"Nate Silver is my statistician; I shall not fret.
He maketh me to lie down in blue states:
He leadeth me beside the bicoastal urban elites.
He restoreth my faith in the electoral college:
He leadeth me in the path of accuracy for his name brand’s sake.

Yea, though I walk through the valley of Diebold,
I will fear no recounts: For he is with me;
His blog and his stats, they comfort me.
He preparest a table of odds before me in the presence of partisan hacks;
He filleth my head with possible outcomes; My brain bloweth up.

Surely middle class tax relief and affordable health care shall follow me all the days of my life,
and Obama will dwell in the House of White for the next four years."

[wan]

Obama did so well he didn't need OH,VA,FL

CO,IA,NV

Romney lost MICH,WIS,PA AND HIS HOME STATE MASS. PAUL RYAN LOST HIS TOO. LOL

[deliriumipa]

Yeah, the whole tipping point state stuff is stupid. The order in which states called means nothing. The end calls are the only relevant thing.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

I still think OHio has a bunch shenanigans with voting.  You just know the Unions are stuffing the ballots.  They really hate Romney. 

Dead people vote as well.

Oh, how cute. Milhouse can't possibly conceive of the idea of people disagreeing with him.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yeah, the whole tipping point state stuff is stupid. The order in which states called means nothing. The end calls are the only relevant thing.

I think tipping state is which state is the critical state assuming a uniform swing, and of course has nothing to do with the order of then they're called.

[Benj]

Yeah, the whole tipping point state stuff is stupid. The order in which states called means nothing. The end calls are the only relevant thing.

That's not what "tipping point state" means. Tipping point state means that, if you lined up the states by their popular vote, whoever won that state and all states more Democratic/Republican than that state would win the electoral college. Incidentally, Ohio was called before Colorado on election night anyway.

So, here, if we assume Obama wins Colorado and all states more Democratic than Colorado (Pennsylvania, Nevada, Iowa, etc.), then Obama wins the electoral college even without less Democratic states like Virginia, Ohio and Florida, as well as all states that voted for Romney. The reverse of course is true of Romney: If he won Colorado and all states more Republican than Colorado, he would have won the electoral college.

[Badger]

I still think OHio has a bunch shenanigans with voting.  You just know the Unions are stuffing the ballots.  They really hate Romney. 

Dead people vote as well.

Dear Milhouse:

Please shutup.

XOXO,
Badger

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama did so well he didn't need OH,VA,FL

CO,IA,NV

Romney lost MICH,WIS,PA AND HIS HOME STATE MASS. PAUL RYAN LOST HIS TOO. LOL

Romney has a lot of home states, but Obama won MI, MA, NH, and CA. The only home state Romney won was UT.

Meanwhile, Obama won all of his home states: HI, NY, CA, MA, IL. Indonesia didn't get to vote, though.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Obama did so well he didn't need OH,VA,FL

CO,IA,NV

Romney lost MICH,WIS,PA AND HIS HOME STATE MASS. PAUL RYAN LOST HIS TOO. LOL

Romney has a lot of home states, but Obama won MI, MA, NH, and CA. The only home state Romney won was UT.

Meanwhile, Obama won all of his home states: HI, NY, CA, MA, IL. Indonesia didn't get to vote, though.

You're forgetting Kansas.

[BlueSwan]

Ohio leaning republican (ever so slightly, mind you) compared to the national popular vote was a bit of a surprise when you consider the polling ahead of the election, which pretty unanimously had Ohio leaning dem compared to the national PV this election cycle.

Had we had a complete dead heat in the national PV with a uniform swing of 2,3% to the GOP, Obama would have lost Florida and Ohio, but would still have won Virginia and Colorado and every other swing state. This is at least somewhat surprising given that Ohio always looked more certain for him in the polling than Virginia or Colorado. Still a lot of votes to be counted in Colorado, though, so that could potentially change.