2012 House Results/Discussion thread

[Miles]

Results.

Contests still uncalled by the AP:

FL-18 (West > Murphy)
NC-07 (McIntyre > Rouzer)
UT-04 (Matheson > Love)
AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick > Paton)
AZ-02 (McSally > Barber)
CA-07 (Bera >Lungren)
CA-36 (Ruiz > Mack)
CA-52 (Peters >Bilbray)

[Incipimus iterum]

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/11/07/matheson-bests-mia-love-in-utah-house-race/
according to this Mathenson has Already won he ran a good campaign

[Gass3268]

How did our map do?

[Joe Biden 2020]

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/11/07/matheson-bests-mia-love-in-utah-house-race/
according to this Mathenson has Already won he ran a good campaign

Indeed. Jim Matheson will be going back to Washington representing UT-04 (my district).

[krazen1211]

Moral of 2012: Vicious gerrymandering almost always works.

[krazen1211]

How did our map do?

We were off on

NV-04 (Tarkanian)
AZ-02 (Barber) - No idea how or what happened here
FL-18 (West)
NY-18 (Hayworth)
MA-06 (Tierney)
MI-01 (Benishek)
NC-07 (McIntyre)
IL-11 (Biggert) - This is the one tossup that was truly a blowout.

[Lief 🗽]

Moral of 2012: Vicious gerrymandering almost always works.

^^^^^^

The Republican ones obviously all did very well, and even the one in Illinois which people were already calling a dummymander was very effective.

Looks like Democrats will end up with 200 seats though, so +7, not bad.

[adma]

Moral of 2012: Vicious gerrymandering almost always works.

Actually, at least for the Dems, gerrymandering/redistricting was more of a distraction than anything, together w/the Presidential and Senatorial races taking on greater importance.  But judging from a lot of the under-60% mandates in what ought to hae been odds-on safe Republican seats, I'm wondering if the Dems ought to have a more comprehensive and broad-ranging (and yes, Blue Dog where necessary) strategy in 2014--using 2012's tallies as a benchmark.

[Vosem]

The only one on that list I can imagine still switching is FL-18, because it's Florida and apparently the outstanding vote is usually Republican (could be wrong on that, read it somewhere). Otherwise, they all seem pretty sealed up, though some are still very very close.

Congratulations to Martha McSally, almost certainly the biggest longshot to win in 2012; and to Dr. Amish Bera, (probably) the first-ever Hindu elected to Congress! WOO-HOO!

[Joe Biden 2020]

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/11/07/matheson-bests-mia-love-in-utah-house-race/
according to this Mathenson has Already won he ran a good campaign

Indeed. Jim Matheson will be going back to Washington representing UT-04 (my district).

Jim Matheson won by a grand total of 2,646 votes!

Matheson - 108,275 - 49%
Love - 105,629 - 49%

That's called barely slipping by!

[Lief 🗽]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/266374836987777026

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

AZ-02 (Barber) - No idea how or what happened here

McSally simply ran a very good campaign. Laid claim to the Giffords-as-independent-minded (as opposed to Giffords-as-the-one-with-a-D-next-to-her-name) legacy without seeming crass about it.

[bedstuy]

AZ-02 (Barber) - No idea how or what happened here

McSally simply ran a very good campaign. Laid claim to the Giffords-as-independent-minded (as opposed to Giffords-as-the-one-with-a-D-next-to-her-name) legacy without seeming crass about it.

There's still a lot of votes left to count.  I think Barber still has a good chance to win. 

[Miles]

How shocking! The parishes from the old 7th voted Boustany while Landry held all those from the old 3rd. Boustany placed first with 44% followed by 30% for Landry and the highest Democrat got 22%.
This will head to a runoff next month.

[Svensson]

Seems McSally's still poised to win.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

AZ-02 (Barber) - No idea how or what happened here

McSally simply ran a very good campaign. Laid claim to the Giffords-as-independent-minded (as opposed to Giffords-as-the-one-with-a-D-next-to-her-name) legacy without seeming crass about it.

There's still a lot of votes left to count.  I think Barber still has a good chance to win. 

Is it provisionals? If so, I think there's a significant likelihood that those would tend to lean Democratic, but...

Seems McSally's still poised to win.

What makes you say that?

[Svensson]

Seems McSally's still poised to win.

What makes you say that?

Well, if it heads for a recount, around 400 votes is where I've noticed it starts to get more difficult to make a margin of victory disappear. Then again, provisionals could still completely change the dynamic, so I'm counting no one's chickens.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Seems McSally's still poised to win.

What makes you say that?

Well, if it heads for a recount, around 400 votes is where I've noticed it starts to get more difficult to make a margin of victory disappear. Then again, provisionals could still completely change the dynamic, so I'm counting no one's chickens.

It's the provisionals that are why Barber still has hope. McSally has obviously won the non-provisional vote.

[Miles]

I'll certainly have precinct-level maps of these districts soon, but here are county results for NC-07 and GA-12.



McIntyre is still holding on by 507 votes with a recount likely. The closest county is Brunswick, where Rouzer is leading by 45 votes. Rouzer actually ran behind Romney is his homebase of Johnston County.


Barrow won 54-46. The most Republican county that he carried was Coffee (the southernmost county), which was 64% Romney.

[Bacon King]

Arizona still hasn't even counted early votes, which were much more Hispanic than election day votes.

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, Barber should win once all the votes are counted, I don't have much doubt of that.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Does anybody else think we might sweep the seven outstanding seats?

[Miles]

Does anybody else think we might sweep the seven outstanding seats?

Yep.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

That'd be an 8-seat net gain. Not great by any means, especially considering the respectable Presidential victory and Senate near-blowout, but still pleasing in light of the various vicious gerrymanders.

[Miles]

That'd be an 8-seat net gain. Not great by any means, especially considering the respectable Presidential victory and Senate near-blowout, but still pleasing in light of the various vicious gerrymanders.

We did pretty well in CA, despite it not being a vicious gerrymander.