Orange County precinct map

[Sbane]

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/election-376033-map-test.html

Looks like Little Saigon swung pretty hard towards Obama and actually voted for him as well as voting for Prop 30. Irvine stayed with Obama but did not favor Prop 30 it doesn't look like. Looking at this result and the results from Miami, it is interesting that some of Obama's biggest swings have come from immigrant groups that previously favored the GOP.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Interesting!

One interesting thing about UC Irvine is that because the university owns a big subdivision of faculty housing, you basically have a precinct of professors, which doesn't exist even in other college towns. For president and the tax referendum, the students, the faculty, and the Hispanic parts of Santa Ana were all roughly equal on the "left" side, but on the death penalty the faculty were way more liberal than anyone else.

[Benj]

Wow, those are huge swings towards Obama in the Vietnamese areas. Most of them were 55-60% McCain, now in some areas as much as 60% Obama. McCain probably overperformed in 2008, but this has to be by far the best Democratic performance with Vietnamese voters since before the Vietnam War.

[SetonHallPirate]

I actually had to click on the thread to find out which "Orange County" it was. There are, off the top of my head, Counties named Orange in California (Anaheim), Florida (Orlando), Indiana (south-center of the state), New York (Newburgh), North Carolina (Chapel Hill), Texas (just north of Beaumont), Vermont (east-center of the state), and Virginia (north-center of the state).

[Sbane]

I actually had to click on the thread to find out which "Orange County" it was. There are, off the top of my head, Counties named Orange in California (Anaheim), Florida (Orlando), Indiana (south-center of the state), New York (Newburgh), North Carolina (Chapel Hill), Texas (just north of Beaumont), Vermont (east-center of the state), and Virginia (north-center of the state).

The most important one, duh!

[nclib]

I actually had to click on the thread to find out which "Orange County" it was. There are, off the top of my head, Counties named Orange in California (Anaheim), Florida (Orlando), Indiana (south-center of the state), New York (Newburgh), North Carolina (Chapel Hill), Texas (just north of Beaumont), Vermont (east-center of the state), and Virginia (north-center of the state).

The most important one, duh!

I'd beg to differ.

But seriously, even living in an Orange County, I knew what the OP was referring to.

I'm not seeing swing maps--or are you all extrapolating?

[SPC]

My home precinct went 65% Romney (Incidentally, Romney's margin of victory in Newport Beach precincts seems directly correlated with how expensive the residences in that precinct are.) 30 got 24% and 34 got 36%

[Hash]

Where were the biggest swings against Obama?

[Benj]

Where were the biggest swings against Obama?

Looks like the wealthy southeast of the county (Laguna Niguel, San Juan Capistrano, Mission Viejo) had the biggest Romney swings, though there were some big swings around Yorba Linda, too. Generally looks like the poorer/less wealthy areas swung Obama while the rich areas swung Romney, with only a few exceptions. Actually surprisingly close to the sort of swings we thought would happen this election, even though nationally it doesn't seem that Romney overperformed in wealthy areas the way he was expected to.

[Sbane]

I actually had to click on the thread to find out which "Orange County" it was. There are, off the top of my head, Counties named Orange in California (Anaheim), Florida (Orlando), Indiana (south-center of the state), New York (Newburgh), North Carolina (Chapel Hill), Texas (just north of Beaumont), Vermont (east-center of the state), and Virginia (north-center of the state).

The most important one, duh!

I'd beg to differ.

But seriously, even living in an Orange County, I knew what the OP was referring to.

I'm not seeing swing maps--or are you all extrapolating?

I was comparing it to DRA. Unfortunately, I cannot seem to find the 2008 OC register precinct map.

[Hash]

Where were the biggest swings against Obama?

Looks like the wealthy southeast of the county (Laguna Niguel, San Juan Capistrano, Mission Viejo) had the biggest Romney swings, though there were some big swings around Yorba Linda, too. Generally looks like the poorer/less wealthy areas swung Obama while the rich areas swung Romney, with only a few exceptions. Actually surprisingly close to the sort of swings we thought would happen this election, even though nationally it doesn't seem that Romney overperformed in wealthy areas the way he was expected to.

I think Romney did really well in the areas where the 1%ers live - look at the big swings in New Canaan and Darien - but outside of the really really rich places there wasn't a big swing in his direction.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Where were the biggest swings against Obama?

Looks like the wealthy southeast of the county (Laguna Niguel, San Juan Capistrano, Mission Viejo) had the biggest Romney swings, though there were some big swings around Yorba Linda, too. Generally looks like the poorer/less wealthy areas swung Obama while the rich areas swung Romney, with only a few exceptions. Actually surprisingly close to the sort of swings we thought would happen this election, even though nationally it doesn't seem that Romney overperformed in wealthy areas the way he was expected to.

I think Romney did really well in the areas where the 1%ers live - look at the big swings in New Canaan and Darien - but outside of the really really rich places there wasn't a big swing in his direction.

The Torie vote!

[Sbane]

Where were the biggest swings against Obama?

Looks like the wealthy southeast of the county (Laguna Niguel, San Juan Capistrano, Mission Viejo) had the biggest Romney swings, though there were some big swings around Yorba Linda, too. Generally looks like the poorer/less wealthy areas swung Obama while the rich areas swung Romney, with only a few exceptions. Actually surprisingly close to the sort of swings we thought would happen this election, even though nationally it doesn't seem that Romney overperformed in wealthy areas the way he was expected to.

I think Romney did really well in the areas where the 1%ers live - look at the big swings in New Canaan and Darien - but outside of the really really rich places there wasn't a big swing in his direction.

Especially the places that swung in 2008, as opposed to those that had a dem trend before that. Santa Clara County swung to Obama this year, and it has a median income near 90k which is the same as places like Mission Viejo and San Juan Capistrano where Romney got a big swing. The difference is that Santa Clara County has rejected Republican policies whereas a lot of the swing towards Obama in 2008 in south OC was a personal vote and a rejection of Palin. They still believe in Republican dogma about no tax increases on the rich (let's not forget that these tax increases wouldn't affect the median voter even in these wealthy areas) but it has been rejected in the Bay Area.

[mileslunn]

Wow, those are huge swings towards Obama in the Vietnamese areas. Most of them were 55-60% McCain, now in some areas as much as 60% Obama. McCain probably overperformed in 2008, but this has to be by far the best Democratic performance with Vietnamese voters since before the Vietnam War.

I wonder if Obama won the Vietnamese vote as I know amongst Asians they tend to vote most heavily GOP whereas East Indians are the strongest for the Democrats.  That would be something if he did since if I am not mistaken this group has always favoured the GOP.

[Sbane]

Obama most certainly won the Vietnamese vote. Democrats usually win the Vietnamese vote in San Jose (and I suspect the PacNW but I'm not certain), but usually lose it in Orange County. This time he won it in both places.

[mileslunn]

Obama most certainly won the Vietnamese vote. Democrats usually win the Vietnamese vote in San Jose (and I suspect the PacNW but I'm not certain), but usually lose it in Orange County. This time he won it in both places.

I am guessing they won every Asian subgroup as usually the Vietnamese, Filipinos, and Koreans have tended to lean GOP, whereas Chinese and Japanese leaned Democrat.  The East Indian which are the fastest growing have tended to vote more heavily Democrat than any of the other Asian groups thus that might explain why it is harder to win the Asian vote than 20 years ago (Both Reagan and Bush Sr. won the Asian vote both times).  In fact of the non-white groups, I am thinking the Cubans were probably the only one the GOP carried and even there it was just barely.  Possible albeit unlikely they carried the native Hawaiian who tend to be quite conservative and also the Cherokee as Oklahoma is 15% Cherokee and went massively Republican. 

[Sbane]

The reuters poll had Hindus at 23% Romney, so you make a very good point. Even the fact that a lot of Indians live in the Bay Area and NYC doesn't explain them voting so Democrat. I am Indian myself and even I don't know how to fully explain it. Some of the reasons could be an aversion to Bush and his policies (and perceived profiling of people who look Arab), the fact that the first exposure to American culture for many Indians is an university, as well as the fact that they are not Christian for the most part. While the Republican party will never say this is a white country (even if they may support policies in certain states that would like to implement that), they are not afraid of saying this is a Christian country. Most other Asian groups tend to be much more Christian, especially Koreans and Filipinos. Maybe if Democrats raise taxes on those making more than 100k, there could be a swing to Republicans. Maybe. At least I know my dad would.

[mileslunn]

The reuters poll had Hindus at 23% Romney, so you make a very good point. Even the fact that a lot of Indians live in the Bay Area and NYC doesn't explain them voting so Democrat. I am Indian myself and even I don't know how to fully explain it. Some of the reasons could be an aversion to Bush and his policies (and perceived profiling of people who look Arab), the fact that the first exposure to American culture for many Indians is an university, as well as the fact that they are not Christian for the most part. While the Republican party will never say this is a white country (even if they may support policies in certain states that would like to implement that), they are not afraid of saying this is a Christian country. Most other Asian groups tend to be much more Christian, especially Koreans and Filipinos. Maybe if Democrats raise taxes on those making more than 100k, there could be a swing to Republicans. Maybe. At least I know my dad would.

It might be cultural too as I know here in Canada the East Indian community tends to go heavily for parties on the left whereas the Chinese, Korean, Filipino, and Vietnamese are much more favourable to voting parties on the right.  Also the fact many are high tech may have an impact as rightly or wrongly, the GOP is seen as anti-science which I think turns off a lot in those fields.

Interesting it seems the Dems are strongest near the I5 in the north, otherwise it seems across the country areas close to an interstate highway are more Democrat than areas accessible only by side roads.