Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Voted at my precinct in NW Forsyth County around 7:30.  There were a few other voters present but no line.  The poll worker who checked me in said they had 10 people waiting when the doors opened, and it had been slow but steady since then.  While I was there, an Elections Board member came in and was talking to one of the workers.  She said that it was very busy in the southern end of the county, which is not surprising since there's intense interest in a referendum on creating the city of Sharon Springs in that area.

And for the record, it's raining in NoGA.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Voted at my precinct in NW Forsyth County around 7:30.  There were a few other voters present but no line.  The poll worker who checked me in said they had 10 people waiting when the doors opened, and it had been slow but steady since then.  While I was there, an Elections Board member came in and was talking to one of the workers.  She said that it was very busy in the southern end of the county, which is not surprising since there's intense interest in a referendum on creating the city of Sharon Springs in that area.

And for the record, it's raining in NoGA.

#YouAreThe25Percent

[TPIG]

Voted for Cagle. He's pretty bland and kind of a block-head, but he does best against the Stacies in polls and is the only Republican with even the slightest change of hitting 50% tonight, foregoing a runoff that would give the Democratic opponent an advantage.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Voted for Cagle. He's pretty bland and kind of a block-head, but he does best against the Stacies in polls and is the only Republican with even the slightest change of hitting 50% tonight, foregoing a runoff that would give the Democratic opponent an advantage.

To be fair, I don't think pollsters ever polled the Stacies vs another opponent. I've only seen Stacey vs Cagle.

[TPIG]

Voted for Cagle. He's pretty bland and kind of a block-head, but he does best against the Stacies in polls and is the only Republican with even the slightest change of hitting 50% tonight, foregoing a runoff that would give the Democratic opponent an advantage.

To be fair, I don't think pollsters ever polled the Stacies vs another opponent. I've only seen Stacey vs Cagle.

There was a poll done with all candidates back in late February and Casey did the best of all candidates and Hill did worst. Obviously since the poll was that long ago, name recognition was a big factor, but it's all I have to go by. The other Reps, even at this point, with the exception of Brian Kemp, are still relatively unknown, and I think the GOP needs a known name to take on the "rising star" Abrams.

[Del Tachi]

Voted for Cagle. He's pretty bland and kind of a block-head, but he does best against the Stacies in polls and is the only Republican with even the slightest change of hitting 50% tonight, foregoing a runoff that would give the Democratic opponent an advantage.

To be fair, I don't think pollsters ever polled the Stacies vs another opponent. I've only seen Stacey vs Cagle.

There was a poll done with all candidates back in late February and Casey did the best of all candidates and Hill did worst. Obviously since the poll was that long ago, name recognition was a big factor, but it's all I have to go by. The other Reps, even at this point, with the exception of Brian Kemp, are still relatively unknown, and I think the GOP needs a known name to take on the "rising star" Abrams.

Brian Kemp will at least get the deplorables to turn out for him, something Cagle might fail to do.  Unlike Virginia, Georgia is a Trump state so I don't think we're in serious risk of Gillespie'ing ourselves here.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Voted for Cagle. He's pretty bland and kind of a block-head, but he does best against the Stacies in polls and is the only Republican with even the slightest change of hitting 50% tonight, foregoing a runoff that would give the Democratic opponent an advantage.

To be fair, I don't think pollsters ever polled the Stacies vs another opponent. I've only seen Stacey vs Cagle.

There was a poll done with all candidates back in late February and Casey did the best of all candidates and Hill did worst. Obviously since the poll was that long ago, name recognition was a big factor, but it's all I have to go by. The other Reps, even at this point, with the exception of Brian Kemp, are still relatively unknown, and I think the GOP needs a known name to take on the "rising star" Abrams.

Brian Kemp will at least get the deplorables to turn out for him, something Cagle might fail to do.  Unlike Virginia, Georgia is a Trump state so I don't think we're in serious risk of Gillespie'ing ourselves here.

Virginia clearly shows that the purely anti-immigration, social conservative red bone strategy is a dud. Generic R vs Generic D lost by 5%. Gillespie lost by 9%.

A lot of WWC voters get pretty annoyed when Republicans aren't talking about real issues to their problems, and instead are just talking about muh immigrants muh guns.

Georgia is pretty similar to Virginia, even though it's about 10 points to the right. Copying the sanctuary city strategy is a dumb idea, even if Republicans still probably win regardless.

[Virginiá]

Virginia clearly shows that the purely anti-immigration, social conservative red bone strategy is a dud. Generic R vs Generic D lost by 5%. Gillespie lost by 9%.

A lot of WWC voters get pretty annoyed when Republicans aren't talking about real issues to their problems, and instead are just talking about muh immigrants muh guns.

Georgia is pretty similar to Virginia, even though it's about 10 points to the right. Copying the sanctuary city strategy is a dumb idea, even if Republicans still probably win regardless.

Didn't Republicans increase or at least maintain their turnout in Virginia '17? I thought I recall seeing something to that effect, which if true, might suggest that Gillespie/Trump-styled campaigns might help mitigate their problems in certain parts of the country (while hurting them even more in others). OTOH, it might be the case that the Gillespie strategy didn't result in anything that wasn't going to happen already. Hard to say for sure.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Virginia clearly shows that the purely anti-immigration, social conservative red bone strategy is a dud. Generic R vs Generic D lost by 5%. Gillespie lost by 9%.

A lot of WWC voters get pretty annoyed when Republicans aren't talking about real issues to their problems, and instead are just talking about muh immigrants muh guns.

Georgia is pretty similar to Virginia, even though it's about 10 points to the right. Copying the sanctuary city strategy is a dumb idea, even if Republicans still probably win regardless.

Didn't Republicans increase or at least maintain their turnout in Virginia '17? I thought I recall seeing something to that effect, which if true, might suggest that Gillespie/Trump-styled campaigns might help mitigate their problems in certain parts of the country (while hurting them even more in others). OTOH, it might be the case that the Gillespie strategy didn't result in anything that wasn't going to happen already. Hard to say for sure.

Gillespie did get more votes than the Republican in 2013, but Northam also got way more votes than Terry. 

The anti-immigration social conservative strategy probably works out very well in a place like West Virginia or Kentucky.

[Del Tachi]

Politico election day profile of Stacey Abrams and the Democratic primary race.

Article features literally nothing about good Stacey, and is a masturbatory PR post for bad Stacey: it neglects to mention her not-so-humble roots and poor relationship with other GA Dems.

The reason that Stacey Evans will lose this race in November (no matter who the GOP nominates) is because her campaign is being bankrolled by DC and San Francisco liberals (easy line for GOP to attack) and Abrams' poor relationship with other GA Dems, particularly Keisha Lance Bottoms.

[Buzz]

Voted for Kemp today.  Think he has best chance of beating Cagle in a runoff.  No way anybody is reaching 50% tonight.  Guess I am a deplorable...

[Del Tachi]

Voted for Kemp today.  Think he has best chance of beating Cagle in a runoff.  No way anybody is reaching 50% tonight.  Guess I am a deplorable...

Deplorables Unite!

Kemp is the most competent candidate in the race.  The fact that Cagle wasn't able to clear the GOP field and will not be getting anywhere near 50% tonight is indicative of how poorly many in the GOP receive him (even after 12 years as LG).

[Adam Griffin]

Turnout is low in Whitfield. I mean, it usually is compared to other parts of the state, but the GOP must really not be caring if the mid-day numbers hold (I have 6/23 strategically-selected precincts staffed with poll-watchers). In areas like this, it wouldn't surprise me if Democratic turnout is at or slightly below 2014, while GOP turnout is way, way below 2014. That likely won't be the case for both parties' turnout totals everywhere, but it's probably pretty relevant in GOP stronghold regions outside the inner metro.

[Nyvin]

Every single one of the GOP gov candidates seems like a complete whack job nutcase.   I literally don't think any of them can remotely be described as moderate on any issue.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Every single one of the GOP gov candidates seems like a complete whack job nutcase.   I literally don't think any of them can remotely be described as moderate on any issue.

Kemp is actually moderate on economics, which is why he is running insanely culturally conservative ads. Clay Tippins doesn't agree with the religious liberty bill and is a bit more reasonable in his economic stances as well.

But yeah, this field is very unusually conservative. Our last two Republican governors were both moderates who were former democrats. And then every governor before that for 120 years was democratic. Carter vs Deal was a clash of two moderates... Abrams and Cagle are pretty far apart.

[Inmate Trump]

I voted for Stacey Abrams a few weeks ago.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/998979798952284160

[Politician]

Every single one of the GOP gov candidates seems like a complete whack job nutcase.   I literally don't think any of them can remotely be described as moderate on any issue.

Of the three that can win, yes all of them are.

[Hammy]

Voted Abrams today, easiest primary choice in quite awhile.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Politico election day profile of Stacey Abrams and the Democratic primary race.

Article features literally nothing about good Stacey, and is a masturbatory PR post for bad Stacey: it neglects to mention her not-so-humble roots and poor relationship with other GA Dems.

I agree with the other parts of this post, but what do you mean "not-so-humble" roots?

[Adam Griffin]

RANDOM PRECINCT REPORT FROM MY COUNTY

2014: 550 R, 67 D (89-11)
2018 (as of 4 PM): 249 R, 70 D (78-22)

Dem turnout at 104% of 2014; GOP at 45% of 2014.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ At the same precinct, just now, from an old white bubba:

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[OneJ]

^^^ At the same precinct, just now, from an old white bubba:

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LOL!

I wish I could laugh, but me being in the classroom doesn’t help.

[LimoLiberal]

What were the statewide percentages of democratic and republican ballots cast in 2014 and 2010?

[Adam Griffin]

What were the statewide percentages of democratic and republican ballots cast in 2014 and 2010?

Update: as of Friday, 340,255 AIP/ABM ballots have been cast or requested (via mail) in Georgia.

While there might be another half day's worth to report tomorrow (I can't remember if the SoS daily reports are through noon or if that is something proprietary to the voter file software I use elsewhere) and any returned ballots in the mail, the early vote is over.

Bigger day for Democrats, who pulled 50% of today's ballots (compared to the GOP's 48%). While not a huge difference, because of the sheer # of votes cast today (over 65k), this was enough to drop the GOP's margin in early voting from 7.3 points to 5.7 points.

Votes	%	Party
176346	51.82	Republican
157020	46.14	Democratic
6889	2.02	Non-Partisan/Other

Percentage of '14 DEM Primary (353,103): 44.5%
Percentage of '14 GOP Primary (617,876): 28.5%


And comparisons to previous primary composition:

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