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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Were you surprised it wasn't a long night?
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Author Topic: Were you surprised it wasn't a long night?  (Read 239 times)
El Betico
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« on: March 23, 2020, 10:39:50 am »
« edited: March 23, 2020, 11:55:37 am by El Betico »

Yes, I know that Romney didn't immediately concede after the Ohio call that for all the networks put Obama over the top, because they thought they still had a shot in OH( a mistery for me the reason why, with nearly, if not over, half of Cuhayoga still to come out), but the trends in the other swing States still outstanding were also clearly in the President direction and in a few time they were almost all called for him, so that Romney would have lost at one point even with an improbable victory in Ohio...so, the election was de facto over not so much time after it was in 2008, when on Election Day an easy Obama victory was much more expected...were you highly surprised you didn't have to stay up much longer that night, considering that national polls on Election Day were theoretically in a dead heat?
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Redban
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« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2020, 11:34:27 am »
« Edited: March 23, 2020, 11:40:57 am by Redban »

I was.

One state that sounded my alarms that night was North Carolina. Not because it was called for anyone early; but because it wasn’t called for anyone.

The pre-election polls for North Carolina kept showing Romney ahead by 5-10 points in North Carolina. Obama even pulled all resources out of the state during the election, effectively conceding. Yet on election night, for hours, the networks kept showing them 50-50 in the state (Romney eventually won by a slim 2%). They were able to call Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and other states for Obama quickly. Yet North Carolina remained uncalled and polling 50-50 until late.

When I saw how  Romney couldn’t win North Carolina quickly, I immediately sensed that his chances of winning Ohio, IA, NV, CO and other states were doubtful.


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538Electoral
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« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2020, 06:55:17 pm »

Yeah. WI and NH being called fast were the first clues that it would've been a quicker night than once thought.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2020, 09:22:43 pm »

No.
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