Gallup Final National Poll: Romney +1

[old timey villain]

It is becoming more and more likely that Romney will win the popular vote tommorrow, but the President will win the electoral vote.

No, Obama will win the popular and electoral vote tomorrow. The national polls have fallen more in line with the state polls.

[old timey villain]

It is becoming more and more likely that Romney will win the popular vote tommorrow, but the President will win the electoral vote.

No, Obama will win the popular and electoral vote tomorrow. The national polls have fallen more in line with the state polls.

Dont get wrong. I think the President has a definitive advantage in Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa, states that will clinch his re-election. But I just think that there will be some ugly numbers being run up against the President in the South and the Sunbelt, and he'll lose North Carolina and Florida by wider than expected margins.

All of the national polls I've seen over the last day or two are within the margin of error of each other. From Obama +2 to Romney +1. There are a few that seem to be outliers that give the President a larger lead, but I think that is unlikely.

I get what you're saying, but those sunbelt states like Florida and North Carolina are very inelastic. There won't be major swings toward or against Romney because both parties have solid support in those states and both camps will GOTV. Obama may lose FL and NC but it won't be by a lot. The more elastic states are in the midwest and Obama is doing fine there.