Official 2012 Presidential Prediction Thread

[Minnesota Mike]

Obama:  2008 states - Indiana, North Carolina and Nebraska CD 02.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Barack 50.5% 303
Mittens 48% 235

[TrapperHawk]

Ehhh, it's my 100th post, so what the Hell...

Obama: 303, Romney: 235

I think Colorado will be very close and can go either way. Florida will go Romney with just a shade over 50%. New Hampshire will go Obama with a shade over 50%. Obama will win Virginia by about 3%. I think that Obama can get over 60% in Maryland. It's a tossup of whether he can or not. Likewise, I wouldn't be surprised if Romney got over 60% in Arkansas and Louisiana. I admit that I'm not the best in the world when it comes to guessing margins. I am certain on the state winners though. (With the exception of Colorado, neither result would surprise me.)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I won't make a map because I'm on-edge and touchy about this whole thing right now, but states I haven't a strong prediction on are Colorado and Florida. States where I do but still wish my prediction was stronger are Virginia and New Hampshire. A state where I wish it wasn't as strong is North Carolina. States where it's reasonably firm but I'm still struck with this vague sense of paranoia are Ohio and Iowa. I'm more or less absolutely confident about everywhere else.

My 'thinking rationally' Obama floor is thus 277; my 'currently unmedicated and stressed' Obama floor is 253. 332 ceiling. My gut more or less agrees with the current Intrade odds but my head trusts Nate Silver and that's what I'm trying to use on Atlas Forum.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Oh Nathan, it'll all be okay, deep breaths!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I wish yaoi could make me feel less doubtful and paranoid right now. I really do.

[Јas]

Mine is also the 303-235 map:




Confidence map to go with it (294-191-53):

[Averroës Nix]

My map is nearly identical to those already posted by Oakvale, TrapperHawk, and Duke: 303-235.




Confidence: 281-206-51



Among the lean states, I'm fairly confident that Romney will win NC and that Obama will win NV and OH. NH, WI, and IA are closer to being toss-ups.

[anvi]

I've spent the last five days doing a lot of running aggregation and checking early voting results.  So, I've done my own calculations.  But, in the end, my final prediction map landed here.

Obama      294
Romney    244

Please share your own.

[Horus]

EV:
Obama - 271
Romney - 267

PV:
Romney - 49.8
Obama - 49.4

[Ljube]

I fell more bullish about Romney's chances now, with Mittmentum becoming apparent in most of the polls.

I will probably update my prediction to include Ohio and Iowa as Romney's states.

[anvi]

Kushahontas, could you please modify your post so that the graphic of your map shows up right?  Thanks!

[King]

Sticky at the top.

[Gass3268]

Go big or go home!

[tarheel-leftist85]

   Obie   Mittens   Tot. Vote   Obie   Mittens   Margin '12   Margin '08   Swing   Trend
ME   52.24   45.38   708000   369859   321290   6.86   17.32   -10.46   -3.19
NH   49.91   48.85   720000   359352   351720   1.06   9.61   -8.55   -1.28
VT   61.03   34.72   315000   192245   109368   26.31   37.01   -10.70   -3.43
MA   55.32   42.03   3213000   1777432   1350424   13.29   25.81   -12.52   -5.25
RI   55.61   41.52   459000   255250   190577   14.09   27.81   -13.72   -6.45
CT   52.03   45.94   1647000   856934   756632   6.09   22.37   -16.28   -9.01
NY   56.32   41.63   7449000   4195277   3101019   14.69   26.86   -12.17   -4.90
NJ   52.10   46.00   3957000   2061597   1820220   6.10   15.53   -9.43   -2.16
PA   50.65   47.63   5925000   3001013   2822078   3.02   10.31   -7.29   -0.02
DE   55.46   42.49   417000   231268   177183   12.97   24.98   -12.01   -4.74
MD   56.68   41.36   2646000   1499753   1094386   15.32   25.44   -10.12   -2.85
DC   92.67   6.05   276000   255769   16698   86.62   85.92   0.70   7.97
NE   54.29   43.67   27732000   15055748   12111594   10.62         
VA   52.00   47.00   3969000   2063880   1865430   5.00   6.3   -1.30   5.97
NC   49.97   49.12   4557000   2277133   2238398   0.85   0.33   0.52   7.79
SC   45.85   52.85   1980000   907830   1046430   -7.00   -8.98   1.98   9.25
GA   46.65   52.47   4122000   1922913   2162813   -5.82   -5.2   -0.62   6.65
FL   50.06   49.09   8709000   4359725   4275248   0.97   2.81   -1.84   5.43
AL   36.02   61.96   2079000   748856   1288148   -25.94   -21.58   -4.36   2.91
MS   43.54   55.19   1287000   560360   710295   -11.65   -13.17   1.52   8.79
LA   37.73   59.67   1926000   726680   1149244   -21.94   -18.63   -3.31   3.96
TX   44.53   54.47   8165000   3635875   4447476   -9.94   -11.76   1.82   9.09
WV   37.35   58.63   654000   244269   383440   -21.28   -16.22   -5.06   2.21
KY   37.23   59.26   1758000   654503   1041791   -22.03   -16.22   -5.81   1.46
TN   37.52   59.77   2427000   910610   1450618   -22.25   -15.06   -7.19   0.08
AR   37.02   59.28   1048000   387970   621254   -22.26   -19.85   -2.41   4.86
MO   43.94   54.01   2934000   1289200   1584653   -10.07   -0.13   -9.94   -2.67
STH   45.36   53.20   45615000   20689803   24265240   -7.84         
OH   50.61   47.67   5766000   2918173   2748652   2.94   4.58   -1.64   5.63
IN   43.71   54.27   2796000   1222132   1517389   -10.56   1.03   -11.59   -4.32
IL   56.10   42.33   5406000   3032766   2288360   13.77   25.11   -11.34   -4.07
MI   51.08   47.02   4869000   2487085   2289404   4.06   16.44   -12.38   -5.11
WI   49.56   48.60   2991000   1482340   1453626   0.96   13.9   -12.94   -5.67
MN   50.02   47.06   2838000   1419568   1335563   2.96   10.24   -7.28   -0.01
IA   49.94   48.37   1506000   752096   728452   1.57   9.53   -7.96   -0.69
ND   36.88   59.37   318000   117278   188797   -22.49   -8.65   -13.84   -6.57
SD   37.04   59.38   366000   135566   217331   -22.34   -8.41   -13.93   -6.66
NE   35.18   61.72   780000   274404   481416   -26.54   -14.93   -11.61   -4.34
KS   35.15   61.67   1197000   420746   738190   -26.52   -14.92   -11.60   -4.33
OK   30.02   69.98   1410000   423282   986718   -39.96   -31.29   -8.67   -1.40
MW   48.56   49.51   30243000   14685435.3   14973897.3   -0.95         
MT   41.07   54.74   489000   200832   267679   -13.67   -2.38   -11.29   -4.02
ID   28.43   67.29   663000   188491   446133   -38.86   -25.3   -13.56   -6.29
WY   26.14   69.58   246000   64304   171167   -43.44   -32.24   -11.20   -3.93
UT   18.14   78.03   969000   175777   756111   -59.89   -28.02   -31.87   -24.60
CO   49.48   48.53   2343000   1159316   1137058   0.95   8.95   -8.00   -0.73
NM   51.02   46.90   834000   425507   391146   4.12   15.13   -11.01   -3.74
AZ   44.20   53.99   2196000   970632   1185620   -9.79   -8.48   -1.31   5.96
NV   50.78   46.27   984000   499675   455297   4.51   12.49   -7.98   -0.71
AK   34.02   62.99   318000   108184   200308   -28.97   -21.54   -7.43   -0.16
WA   52.12   45.35   2934000   1529201   1330569   6.77   17.08   -10.31   -3.04
OR   51.61   46.87   1773000   915045   831005   4.74   16.35   -11.61   -4.34
CA   55.38   42.45   13329000   7381600   5658161   12.93   24.03   -11.10   -3.83
HI   63.29   34.09   450000   284805   153405   29.20   45.26   -16.06   -8.79
WST   50.51   47.17   27528000   13903369   12983657   3.34         
   49.07   49.07   131118000   64334355   64334389   -0.00003

Obie      - 347EV - 49.07%PV - 64,334,355
Mittens  - 191EV - 49.07%PV - 64,334,389

Swing Map
30% shade < 3%
3% < 40% shade < 6%
6% < 50% shade < 9%
9% < 60% shade < 12%
12% < 70% shade < 15%
15% < 80% shade < 18%
90% shade > 18%

Trend Map

[SPC]

The mean result given my results of my Open Office spreadsheet (edit: PPP and Ipsos flip Colorado and Virginia, respectively):

My gut feeling:

What will happen if the universe is f(inks)ing with me:

[NCeriale]

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Obama 348
Romney 190


I know some trolls will say "This wont be the map!! 271 obama!! blah blah!"

This may well be the map if not take away FL or NC.

[heatmaster]

Romney/Ryan 325
Obama/Biden 213

Romney/Ryan 341
Obama/Biden 197

How's thing's Anvi? ....still here! LOL

[anvi]

Sure I'm still here, heatmaster.  Glad you are too.  Thanks for the maps.

[Paul Kemp]

Romney pulls off the "upset" and surges in most of the true swing states. Ohio is razor thin and isn't finalized for weeks. Obama doesn't concede until Ohio is officially declared.

CO takes a while to call as well but Obama squeaks it out. It isn't enough though.

Romney/Ryan - 276 EVs - 50% PV
Obama/Biden - 262 EVs - 49% PV
Other - 0 EVs - 1 %

[Zanas]

Obama 294
Romney 244

This will be my final prediction. I find globally the movement from 2008 is downwards for Obama, and that could make him lose CO even if the polls still have him +1 or 2 these days. I hesitated on IA though. I could well have reversed IA and CO, or put both in blue.

Now wait and see.

[Lambsbread]

Honestly, I think any of the following could happen:

but I think this will be the map when it's all set and done:

But my actual assessment of the race up to this point:

[Maxwell]

Probably this.

[Drew1830]

I fell more bullish about Romney's chances now, with Mittmentum becoming apparent in most of the polls.

What it must feel like to be delusional.

Obama is surging in all national polls and he is keeping all of this leads in the state polls. Mitt Romney having momentum is almost as silly as the idea that Cliffy is a grown man.