MO: Public Policy Polling: McCaskill ahead, but barely outside of MoE

[Lief 🗽]

It's pretty clear that a large segment of Missouri voters had a change of heart when they were actually physically in the voting booth marking their ballot. I think most people expected this change of heart, if it occurred, to be in favor of Akin: Republicans who were embarrassed by his rape comments and couldn't bear to say they would support such a repugnant character over the phone to a pollster, but when in the privacy of the voting booth "came home" and voting for the Republican (like Hash talked about above). But these literally last minute swings happen in the opposite direction too. I suspect that were was a large segment of Republican-leaning women who said and thought they were supporting Akin up until election day, but just couldn't bring themselves to physically check the box for him when it came time to actually vote.

 I just don't understand why SUSA picked up on these "shy McCaskill" voters but PPP didn't (if you look at PPP and SUSA's Missouri polls, the results for president and governor are basically identical, but SUSA essentially got the senate race numbers right while PPP picked up a lot more Akin support than he actually received).