Pennsylvania -- Obama +3

[pa2011]

Allentown Morning Call -- Obama 49 Romney 46..

http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/blog_pennsylvania_ave/mc-muhlenerg-poll-obama-ahead-3-20121104,0,3073650.story

[Tender Branson]

My numbers:

53-46 Obama

[Skill and Chance]

Well, there is enough evidence to say this is a race.  Wouldn't it be something if PA was closer than OH?  Still, don't bet on it.  Polling averages underestimated Kerry and Obama 08 by about 2% here.

[Franzl]

Well, there is enough evidence to say this is a race.  Wouldn't it be something if PA was closer than OH?  Still, don't bet on it.  Polling averages underestimated Kerry and Obama 08 by about 2% here.

And Sestak 2010 overperformed compared to his polling.

Pennsylvania is closer than I would have imagined a few days/weeks ago, but Republicans really shouldn't get their hopes up.

[Bigbzy89]

With Obama's war on coal and the Bradley Effect, he should crash big time in Western Pennsylvania among traditional blue collar Democrats.

With this in mind, expect Romney to pull out a close 3-4% win in PA.

[Speed of Sound]

For a Muhelnberg comparison, it's a two point Romney gain since O+5 on the 21st, and a one poinr Romney shift since O+4 on the 14th.


I'll take it, I guess. This and PPP together, plus the fact that only Angus Reid and Susq have shown anything less than 49% for Obama since mid last month makes me confident the necessary majority is there. Boy, it's tighter than it should be, though.