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  Des Moines Register -- Obama +5 in Iowa
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Author Topic: Des Moines Register -- Obama +5 in Iowa  (Read 2741 times)
pa2011
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« on: November 03, 2012, 07:10:52 PM »

Obama 47 Romney 42.

Think this is a pretty solid poll

http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2012/11/03/iowa-poll-final-stretch-in-iowa-gives-edge-to-obama/article?nclick_check=1
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2012, 07:12:16 PM »

Ohio done. Iowa done. Wisconsin done. Nevada done. Pennsylvania definitely done.

Where's Mitt's 270?
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2012, 07:13:53 PM »

Clearly they are biased. Another liberal paper that is just supporting the guy they endorsed...

...what? They did what?











....never mind
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pepper11
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2012, 07:15:14 PM »

The math doesnt add up. Early vote has D + 10. Unless Obama is winning independents by 80-20 margin, its mathelmatically impossible for him to be up by 22 with early voters as this poll says.
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Ljube
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2012, 07:18:33 PM »

Selzer & Co.
Good pollster, but difficult to poll Iowa due to early voting.

However, I already have Iowa in Obama's column, so this doesn't matter.

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nhmagic
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2012, 07:19:35 PM »

What part of the polls are wrong don't you guys understand.  You are deluding yourselves in believing that you will match us in turnout and enthusiasm.  30,000 people for a Romney Ryan rally and Obama is getting McCain size (sub 4000) crowds in some states.  At this point, that does not point to an Obama victory regardless of JJs rule about crowds.  We will win independents by high single to double digits and undecideds 80-20.  Your early voting is down considerably, no matter how hard you try to spin it.  
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Yank2133
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2012, 07:21:42 PM »

What part of the polls are wrong don't you guys understand.  You are deluding yourselves in believing that you will match us in turnout and enthusiasm.  30,000 people for a Romney Ryan rally and Obama is getting McCain size (sub 4000) crowds in some states.  At this point, that does not point to an Obama victory regardless of JJs rule about crowds.  We will win independents by high single to double digits and undecideds 80-20.  Your early voting is down considerably, no matter how hard you try to spin it.  

Lmao!
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2012, 07:27:33 PM »

What part of the polls are wrong don't you guys understand.  You are deluding yourselves in believing that you will match us in turnout and enthusiasm.  30,000 people for a Romney Ryan rally and Obama is getting McCain size (sub 4000) crowds in some states.  At this point, that does not point to an Obama victory regardless of JJs rule about crowds.  We will win independents by high single to double digits and undecideds 80-20.  Your early voting is down considerably, no matter how hard you try to spin it.  

Lmao!
Stop grasping for straws. You know you're losing when you just flat out claim "the polls are wrong".
No, Mitt is not getting larger crowds than Obama, he's not getting McCain size crowds. The latest PPP Poll shows Obama pulling ahead among indies. Rasmussen has it tied. Wash/Post ABC says Obama is closing the gap.
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2012, 07:34:07 PM »

What part of the polls are wrong don't you guys understand.  You are deluding yourselves in believing that you will match us in turnout and enthusiasm.  30,000 people for a Romney Ryan rally and Obama is getting McCain size (sub 4000) crowds in some states.  At this point, that does not point to an Obama victory regardless of JJs rule about crowds.  We will win independents by high single to double digits and undecideds 80-20.  Your early voting is down considerably, no matter how hard you try to spin it.  

Could one of you blue-avatar newbies back this up?  Anyone of you. 

I'm convinced you're all 14 years old. 
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nhmagic
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2012, 07:35:04 PM »

What part of the polls are wrong don't you guys understand.  You are deluding yourselves in believing that you will match us in turnout and enthusiasm.  30,000 people for a Romney Ryan rally and Obama is getting McCain size (sub 4000) crowds in some states.  At this point, that does not point to an Obama victory regardless of JJs rule about crowds.  We will win independents by high single to double digits and undecideds 80-20.  Your early voting is down considerably, no matter how hard you try to spin it.  

Lmao!
Stop grasping for straws. You know you're losing when you just flat out claim "the polls are wrong".
No, Mitt is not getting larger crowds than Obama, he's not getting McCain size crowds. The latest PPP Poll shows Obama pulling ahead among indies. Rasmussen has it tied. Wash/Post ABC says Obama is closing the gap.
I will happily proclaim it each day until election day.  We aren't losing.  You think we are losing because you happen to be wrong and will be amazed at the size of Romney's victory on Tuesday.  

And as for crowds, try again:
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/11/wow-20000-30000-turn-out-to-see-romney-ryan-in-ohio-obama-draws-crowds-less-than-4000/
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Zanas
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2012, 07:38:17 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2012, 01:22:33 AM by Tender Branson »

30,000 people for a Romney Ryan rally and Obama is getting McCain size (sub 4000) crowds in some states.  At this point, that does not point to an Obama victory  
And we all know that the size of rallyes is a direct and exclusive factor of voting turnout and result in the upcoming election, as Jean-Luc Mélenchon's campaign recently showed us in the French presidential race earlier this year...
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2012, 07:41:16 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2012, 07:44:50 PM by Clinton1996 "Sec. of Explaining Stuff" »

What part of the polls are wrong don't you guys understand.  You are deluding yourselves in believing that you will match us in turnout and enthusiasm.  30,000 people for a Romney Ryan rally and Obama is getting McCain size (sub 4000) crowds in some states.  At this point, that does not point to an Obama victory regardless of JJs rule about crowds.  We will win independents by high single to double digits and undecideds 80-20.  Your early voting is down considerably, no matter how hard you try to spin it.  
Lmao!
Stop grasping for straws. You know you're losing when you just flat out claim "the polls are wrong".
No, Mitt is not getting larger crowds than Obama, he's not getting McCain size crowds. The latest PPP Poll shows Obama pulling ahead among indies. Rasmussen has it tied. Wash/Post ABC says Obama is closing the gap.
I will happily proclaim it each day until election day.  We aren't losing.  You think we are losing because you happen to be wrong and will be amazed at the size of Romney's victory on Tuesday.  

And as for crowds, try again:
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/11/wow-20000-30000-turn-out-to-see-romney-ryan-in-ohio-obama-draws-crowds-less-than-4000/
You know they didn't turn out to see Romney right? They were there to see those 30 surrogates who are their parties future. Like Rubio, Ryan, Thune and Ayotte.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2012, 07:42:48 PM »

When you start using crowd size to justify that your side will win, instead of hard date.....then you know you have lost.
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nhmagic
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2012, 07:47:48 PM »

When you start using crowd size to justify that your side will win, instead of hard date.....then you know you have lost.
Hard data that have incorrect turnout models.
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Bigbzy89
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2012, 07:48:51 PM »

You mean Obama is down 53-47.

Dick Morris and insiders on both campaigns admitted that undecideds break 117% for the challenger.

Not looking good for Obama.
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2012, 07:50:58 PM »

You mean Obama is down 53-47.

Dick Morris and insiders on both campaigns admitted that undecideds break 117% for the challenger.

Not looking good for Obama.
You're right dude.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2012, 07:52:37 PM »

The math doesnt add up. Early vote has D + 10. Unless Obama is winning independents by 80-20 margin, its mathelmatically impossible for him to be up by 22 with early voters as this poll says.
Don't let data get in the way of a good Democrat narrative, comrade! Obama will win by 5, or he won't. Silence on here if you think he won't! Silence!
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Sasquatch
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2012, 07:52:56 PM »

As a native Iowan, I knew Mitt Romney wasn't a good candidate for the state. He's lost two state caucuses and he's going to lose the state on Tuesday. Bad candidate.
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J. J.
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« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2012, 07:53:18 PM »


Newspaper polls are somewhat better than Uni polls, but not by much.  

The early voter number would indicate that Obama is carrying 80% of the independent vote, and frankly, that is hugely unlikely.  

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Cliffy
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« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2012, 08:17:13 PM »

As a native Iowan, I knew Mitt Romney wasn't a good candidate for the state. He's lost two state caucuses and he's going to lose the state on Tuesday. Bad candidate.

Interesting because the last month I've been all over Iowa and I've seen a lot of support for Romney and hardly any for O. 

As far as this poll, they have a problem with their LV screen and EV data is screwed up, keep trying to tell you alot of these polls are messed up b/c of this.  And No I don't think this one is biased, just bad data.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2012, 08:33:54 PM »

Obama is done in Iowa.  This will be a Romney state.  47% is all Obama can muster when 40% of the vote is already cast and 43% are Democrats?

Lets take a walk down memory lane:

10/31/08 - Des Moines Register  Obama by SEVENTEEN!  He won by 9.5.  Their poll is a joke
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2012, 08:36:21 PM »

Neither candidate has this state wrapped up. Same goes with Ohio, Virginia, Florida, etc.
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J. J.
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« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2012, 08:37:34 PM »

There polls shows that indies are at 41/37 Romney.

25% of the voters are independent so far, with slightly more outstanding applications.  

Assume that Romney has 40% of that indie vote and Obama 60%, these would be the early voting numbers.

Romney:  42%

Obama:   58%

O +16 points

If their independent result is correct, Romney's getting about 52% of the indie vote.  That would be:

Romney:  45%

Obama:  55%

O +10

They have early voting:

Romney:  39%

Obama:  61%

They did weigh it based on census data, and that might be a problem.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2012, 08:38:56 PM »

When you start using crowd size to justify that your side will win, instead of hard date.....then you know you have lost.
Hard data that have incorrect turnout models.

So basically every pollster is wrong? Whatever helps you sleep at night, pal.
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J. J.
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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2012, 09:28:49 PM »

When you start using crowd size to justify that your side will win, instead of hard date.....then you know you have lost.
Hard data that have incorrect turnout models.

So basically every pollster is wrong? Whatever helps you sleep at night, pal.

We know how many indies have voted and we know the requests.  Those are not guesses.  He also know if the indies are voting as the poll indicates they are, what the result would be.    It doesn't match the poll result. 

Now, no, I don't go on crowd sizes, but this is hard data. 
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