I am surprised that Oregon is this close. I would have imagined around a 10% win or so for the President. From what I understand about the state, it shouldn't really have major swings. I remember reading that it has some of the most liberal Democrats and some of the most conservative Republicans.
For those that want to attack PPP, they were very accurate in Oregon in 2008. They called it 57-42 when it actually went 57-41.
It's very easy to be accurate when your candidate hits some of the assumptions you are making. Obama hit those turnout numbers in '08 both as a percentage of Party ID and geography.
With that said, I do think the regular PPP polls are a little more accurate than the sauced polls for that "progressive" Obama health care PAC. This was a regular PPP poll.
This particular poll accurately reflects the McCain vote in '08, but undersamples the Obama vote with 9% not remembering (perhaps Obama voters with buyers' remorse). It also is D+16, when the '08 exit polls were D+11.
While I don't think Romney is winning Oregon by any means, my guess is that you're looking at about a 4-to-6 point Obama win, more likely on the outer range of that number.
