FL: Mason Dixon Romney +6 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 27, 2024, 04:00:22 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  FL: Mason Dixon Romney +6 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: FL: Mason Dixon Romney +6  (Read 11639 times)
Wonkish1
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,203


« on: November 03, 2012, 12:03:40 PM »
« edited: November 03, 2012, 12:05:41 PM by Wonkish1 »

some things...

D +5 (D 44% R 39 % I 17%)

but Obama at only 80 % with democrats.

Romney leads Indies by 6.

Job approv: only 43 %

So maybe a anti-obama bias (2-3 p).



Just an FYI,

D 44 and R 39 is obviously the results of a leaner question which is not the same as its going to be asked by exit polls. Basically, the exit polls will ask which party do they identify with and garner results with both parties in the 30's. A leaner question is worded with the use of either the 5 "Dem, Lean Dem, Independent, etc." or a worded question that asks the person to specify the party they may lean towards.

With the different wording you'll get more barely Dems and barely GOP and the percent of Dems that favor Obama will go down relative to a poll that doesn't use a leaner question.

If you standardized the poll back to a non leaner party id question the results would likely change to Obama getting ~87% of Dems which is about right. And that would be with a party ID sample of probably around D 38, R 33.

So once you take into account the way this polls party ID was almost definitely worded the crosstabs looks about right.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.023 seconds with 14 queries.