Georgia's share of white voters drops below 59%

[Adam Griffin]

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http://www.ajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/share-of-white-voters-in-georgia-falls-below-60-pe/nStcr/

Whites are falling off the voter registration rolls at basically 1 percentage point per year. I would imagine that a 4-point decrease would lead to about a 3-point decrease in the actual white electorate on Tuesday. Could this alone cancel out any Romney "surge" when compared to Georgia's 2008 total?

I've also been witness to several minority voter registration rallies where many are directed to check the 'Other' box as opposed to Black or Hispanic. Lots of these 'Others' are actually black. With such mistrust of how minority voter registration is handled in the Deep South, it is an appropriate reaction.

If this trend continues, Georgia's registered voters will be less than 55% white by 2016.

[Ty440]

Wonder what the "good old boys" in Forsyth County think about all this?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wonder what the "good old boys" in Forsyth County think about all this?

I happen to live in Forsyth County.

All I can say is that the county is slowly changing, becoming a little more diverse and a little less conservative, as it becomes more of a white-collar bedroom community.  In the 2011 Census estimates, the county's non-Hispanic white population was 79%.  When I moved here, it was well over 90%.  The state as a whole is about 55%.

As far as the Presidential race here, the only question in my mind is whether Romney will break 75% in the county.  McCain got 78%.

[Adam Griffin]

Wonder what the "good old boys" in Forsyth County think about all this?

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Population:
1980   27,958      
1990   44,083      
2000   98,407      
2010   175,511      

Unfortunately, it's still about 80% white and retains virtually all the racism it once has - although the rich WASPS make it more covert than overt these days. I wish I could find a good quality video of that time Oprah went there back in the late 80s.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wonder what the "good old boys" in Forsyth County think about all this?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Population:
1980   27,958      
1990   44,083      
2000   98,407      
2010   175,511      

Unfortunately, it's still about 80% white and retains virtually all the racism it once has - although the rich WASPS make it more covert than overt these days. I wish I could find a good quality video of that time Oprah went there back in the late 80s.

Speaking as one who has lived here for quite a while, I have to respectfully disagree that it retains "virtually all" of its former racism.  There's still plenty of racism...but it IS slowly declining, especially in the southern part of the county that borders Fulton.  I'm by no means saying that everything is wonderful in this respect -- but progress is being made.  There's still a lot more that remains to be made, of course.

[Adam Griffin]

Wonder what the "good old boys" in Forsyth County think about all this?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Population:
1980   27,958      
1990   44,083      
2000   98,407      
2010   175,511      

Unfortunately, it's still about 80% white and retains virtually all the racism it once has - although the rich WASPS make it more covert than overt these days. I wish I could find a good quality video of that time Oprah went there back in the late 80s.

Speaking as one who has lived here for quite a while, I have to respectfully disagree that it retains "virtually all" of its former racism.  There's still plenty of racism...but it IS slowly declining, especially in the southern part of the county that borders Fulton.  I'm by no means saying that everything is wonderful in this respect -- but progress is being made.  There's still a lot more that remains to be made, of course.

I'm sure it's changed some, but just a couple of days ago I got some interesting news out of Forsyth. I'm acquaintances with the Democratic Chair there; she said at their fair booth, people came up and blatantly made racist statements to her about the President. She also had two different people steal signs directly off of the table when she wasn't looking.

[Chaddyr23]

I am so happy that a potential state I wanna move to will soon def be a swing state!

[Ty440]

Wonder what the "good old boys" in Forsyth County think about all this?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Population:
1980   27,958      
1990   44,083      
2000   98,407      
2010   175,511      

Unfortunately, it's still about 80% white and retains virtually all the racism it once has - although the rich WASPS make it more covert than overt these days. I wish I could find a good quality video of that time Oprah went there back in the late 80s.

Speaking as one who has lived here for quite a while, I have to respectfully disagree that it retains "virtually all" of its former racism.  There's still plenty of racism...but it IS slowly declining, especially in the southern part of the county that borders Fulton.  I'm by no means saying that everything is wonderful in this respect -- but progress is being made.  There's still a lot more that remains to be made, of course.

I'm sure it's changed some, but just a couple of days ago I got some interesting news out of Forsyth. I'm acquaintances with the Democratic Chair there; she said at their fair booth, people came up and blatantly made racist statements to her about the President. She also had two different people steal signs directly off of the table when she wasn't looking.

GOP appears to stand for Gang of Prejudiced-persons. End Quote

I like that , I'm gonna have to steal that one lol.

[old timey villain]

I have family in Forsyth County. It's changed a lot but it's still about as conservative as it has always been, but the style of conservatism has changed. It's gone from rural good ol boy conservatism to exurban "I got mine and screw the poors" conservatism. Don't know which is worse.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Do most states register by race?

[Adam Griffin]

Do most states register by race?

Off the top of my head, I know that North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Alabama and Louisiana do.

[Ty440]

Do most states register by race?

Off the top of my head, I know that North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Alabama and Louisiana do.

Because of the Voting Rights Act ?

[Adam Griffin]

Do most states register by race?

Off the top of my head, I know that North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Alabama and Louisiana do.

Because of the Voting Rights Act ?

That's what I was thinking, but I'm pretty sure that Mississippi, Virginia, Texas and Arizona do not register by race. Likewise, North Carolina and Florida are only partially-covered by VRA and they still do it statewide.

[Adam Griffin]

Percentage of Registered Whites, 2000: 72.03%
Percentage of Voting Whites, 2000: 75.07%

Percentage of Registered Whites, 2004: 68.10%
Percentage of Voting Whites, 2004: 71.37%

Percentage of Registered Whites, 2008: 62.70%
Percentage of Voting Whites, 2008: 64.11%

Percentage of Registered Whites, 2012: 58.80%
Percentage of Voting Whites, 2012: x%

=====

Estimating that x is 60 (±0.5) in this election, and that:

• Whites will support Romney by the same margin as in 2008 (23%)
  
• Non-whites will support Obama by the same margin as in 2008 (91%)

You end up with a result like this:

Obama: 49.7%
Romney: 49.3%

I came up with these precise variables without knowing the outcome. So, I went back and ran 20 scenarios - ranging between 60%-64% white turnout:

[Gass3268]

If Obama wins on Tuesday, Democrats should hold there 2016 convention in Atlanta.

[Frodo]

If Obama wins on Tuesday, Democrats should hold there 2016 convention in Atlanta.

Given the troubles the GOP is having with Latinos lately, wouldn't Phoenix be a better option?   

[Ty440]

Georgia= the new Virginia in 2016

[Adam Griffin]

If Obama wins on Tuesday, Democrats should hold there 2016 convention in Atlanta.

Yes! I could see Hillary actually going into some of the Appalachian counties to campaign. If a Democrat in 2016 can improve 5 points on Obama's 2008 results in the northern part of the state, it's over.

[Gass3268]

If Obama wins on Tuesday, Democrats should hold there 2016 convention in Atlanta.

Given the troubles the GOP is having with Latinos lately, wouldn't Phoenix be a better option?   

Both would be good choices

[Ty440]

If Obama wins on Tuesday, Democrats should hold there 2016 convention in Atlanta.

Given the troubles the GOP is having with Latinos lately, wouldn't Phoenix be a better option?   

The Republicans are about to get boxed in to the Interior plain States and Appalachia.

[Seriously?]

Georgia= the new Virginia in 2016

Laughable. Georgia has a Republican governor and near veto-proof majorities in the Georgia Assembly and the Senate.

If I were to register here again, I'd claim to be an "other," too. It's none of the government's business what race I am when it comes to voting.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia= the new Virginia in 2016

Laughable. Georgia has a Republican governor and near veto-proof majorities in the Georgia Assembly and the Senate.

If I were to register here again, I'd claim to be an "other," too. It's none of the government's business what race I am when it comes to voting.

You're making a bad assumption in comparing Presidential races with statewide races. For one, the Governor and virtually all statewide elections are in mid-term cycles and we both know that benefits Republicans when it comes to who turns out. Secondly, the Republicans are likely to continue to dominate in the General Assembly due to redistricting being to their advantage, but that wouldn't be guaranteed under the old maps.

In summary, you can gerrymander any state's districts when it comes to hacking and carving up constituencies, but in the Presidential election, the Democratic power in Georgia is going to become more powerful over the next couple of cycles. Georgia's 16 electoral votes will be in play come 2016 for a candidate who is willing to work for it. Following behind that over the next 5-10 years, you'll begin to see the same trends permeate into more statewide and state legislative races.

[freepcrusher]

the fact of the matter is that most GA dems are of the Sam Nunn variety so the dems only need to get the PVI up to about D+3 and winning the state shouldn't be very hard.

[Seriously?]

Georgia= the new Virginia in 2016

Laughable. Georgia has a Republican governor and near veto-proof majorities in the Georgia Assembly and the Senate.

If I were to register here again, I'd claim to be an "other," too. It's none of the government's business what race I am when it comes to voting.

You're making a bad assumption in comparing Presidential races with statewide races. For one, the Governor and virtually all statewide elections are in mid-term cycles and we both know that benefits Republicans when it comes to who turns out. Secondly, the Republicans are likely to continue to dominate in the General Assembly due to redistricting being to their advantage, but that wouldn't be guaranteed under the old maps.

In summary, you can gerrymander any state's districts when it comes to hacking and carving up constituencies, but in the Presidential election, the Democratic power in Georgia is going to become more powerful over the next couple of cycles. Georgia's 16 electoral votes will be in play come 2016 for a candidate who is willing to work for it. Following behind that over the next 5-10 years, you'll begin to see the same trends permeate into more statewide and state legislative races.

I'm not making a bad assumption. Obama will lose Georgia by 8-10 points. Georgia is not a purple state, nor will it be in 2016.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia= the new Virginia in 2016

Laughable. Georgia has a Republican governor and near veto-proof majorities in the Georgia Assembly and the Senate.

If I were to register here again, I'd claim to be an "other," too. It's none of the government's business what race I am when it comes to voting.

You're making a bad assumption in comparing Presidential races with statewide races. For one, the Governor and virtually all statewide elections are in mid-term cycles and we both know that benefits Republicans when it comes to who turns out. Secondly, the Republicans are likely to continue to dominate in the General Assembly due to redistricting being to their advantage, but that wouldn't be guaranteed under the old maps.

In summary, you can gerrymander any state's districts when it comes to hacking and carving up constituencies, but in the Presidential election, the Democratic power in Georgia is going to become more powerful over the next couple of cycles. Georgia's 16 electoral votes will be in play come 2016 for a candidate who is willing to work for it. Following behind that over the next 5-10 years, you'll begin to see the same trends permeate into more statewide and state legislative races.

I'm not making a bad assumption. Obama will lose Georgia by 8-10 points. Georgia is not a purple state, nor will it be in 2016.

Yes, you are. Romney might win by that amount this time, but it'll be the last time anything like that happens.