Missouri as a Bellwether
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  Missouri as a Bellwether
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MaC
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« on: February 04, 2005, 07:37:29 PM »
« edited: March 09, 2005, 09:08:44 AM by Dave Leip »

Anyone notice that Missouri has voted for the winner in every election since since 1960.  They only elections they voted for the loser in the last century was 1900 and 1956.  Is all we need to look for Missouri's results on election night in November in 2008?  Will this influence opebo to try to get his state to vote for who he wants?  Feel free to comment, especially Missourians.
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Alcon
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« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2005, 08:44:01 PM »

This is a pretty well-known thing.

Missouri pretty much leans Republican. Prior to 2004, the same award could be given to Delaware, too.

I don't think it has much to do with anything other than dumb luck and being a reasonably divided state. However, now that the whole north vs. south/rural vs. urban divide has been established, it is unlikely that Missouri will retain this if a Democrat wins by anything more than a large margin.
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nclib
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« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2005, 11:49:30 PM »

Missouri has drifted Republican against (compared to) the national average the past three elections.
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MaC
Milk_and_cereal
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« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2005, 01:16:03 AM »

your probably right about the "dumb luck", but I mean consider people put the same amount of faith in Ohio as the determinant of the election.  If a democrat wins Ohio, they win the election.  Cummon, it's a fairly populous state, but by no means does any single state really carry much importance as a "prophet", or a "given".
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2005, 04:17:07 AM »

Deleware has a very good record, too.
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Rob
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« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2005, 08:47:39 PM »

Deleware has a very good record, too.

Not since 2000...
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Notre Dame rules!
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« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2005, 10:56:02 PM »

MO is given so much credence because it is supposed to represent "middle America."  However, in some ways it is a true bellwether.  Look at the map.  The vast middle of the nation is becoming more Republican, and the Dems are being pushed to the coasts of the West and Northeast, with just a little bit of the Great Lakes thrown in.  Outside of Illinois, the Dems hold on the Great Lakes region is slipping fast.
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King
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« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2005, 11:30:16 PM »

Outside of Illinois, the Dems hold on the Great Lakes region is slipping fast.

Actually:

Illinois
1996 - Clinton by 17.5%
2000 - Gore by 12.0%
2004 - Kerry by 10.3%
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Erc
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« Reply #8 on: February 09, 2005, 11:41:26 PM »

Actually:

Illinois:

Percent More Democratic than the National Average:

1996:  4.9%
2000:  5.9%
2004:  6.4%

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King
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« Reply #9 on: February 09, 2005, 11:42:46 PM »

Actually:

Illinois:

Percent More Democratic than the National Average:

1996:  4.9%
2000:  5.9%
2004:  6.4%



But in MARGINS, we are doing good...and that is more important... Wink
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #10 on: February 10, 2005, 12:35:53 PM »

Oh dear... more three brain cell ultra-partisan discussions about "trends"... eek!
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King
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« Reply #11 on: February 10, 2005, 07:17:20 PM »

Interesting, without Cook County...Illinois is kind of like Missouri!  Except with one more EV and 1 percent more for Kerry:

Bush         54.22%   (1,749,203)
Kerry         45.02%   (1,452,265)
Badnarik      0.65%   (20,974)
Nader         0.09%   (2,908)
Peroutka      0.01%   (385)
Cobb         0.00%   (198)
Write-ins      0.00%   (48)
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Gustaf
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« Reply #12 on: February 14, 2005, 08:07:11 AM »

Things have changed, MO is no longer a bellwether. I think Nevada or some state like that is probably the bellwether nowadays.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #13 on: February 14, 2005, 08:15:04 AM »
« Edited: February 14, 2005, 08:17:21 AM by Senator Al »

On a serious note... Missouri is certainly swingable for a good Democratic candidate... certainly if they campaign on economic issues.
For a Democrat to win in MO they need to do well in the St Louis and Kansas City Metro's, the smaller cities in central MO, the old metal mining areas and the Boot Heel.
Certainly not an impossible task
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Gustaf
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« Reply #14 on: February 14, 2005, 08:22:27 AM »

On a serious note... Missouri is certainly swingable for a good Democratic candidate... certainly if they campaign on economic issues.
For a Democrat to win in MO they need to do well in the St Louis and Kansas City Metro's, the smaller cities in central MO, the old metal mining areas and the Boot Heel.
Certainly not an impossible task

We would be talking about a serious change of tack from the Democrats then that would focus more on populism and most likely lose them some recent gains like New Hampshire, but make them competitive in places like Arkansas, West Virginia, Missouri and Ohio.

I don't think that will happen though. The Democrats are too entrenched as being pro-abortion, pro-gay marriage, etc to make the kind of drastic change required.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #15 on: February 14, 2005, 08:39:11 AM »

We would be talking about a serious change of tack from the Democrats then that would focus more on populism and most likely lose them some recent gains like New Hampshire, but make them competitive in places like Arkansas, West Virginia, Missouri and Ohio.

I don't think that will happen though. The Democrats are too entrenched as being pro-abortion, pro-gay marriage, etc to make the kind of drastic change required.

Dunno about that... Harry Reid was able to lock up a majority of Democratic Senators before any vote was held, the national Dems are trying to get Casey jr and Langevin to run for Senate in PA and RI respectivly, and to be fair to Chairman Dean he does seem to be aware that the Democrats need to reach out to the millions of populist Democrats that haven't been voting for national candidates of late.

Wait and See
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