Reversing close states
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« on: October 31, 2012, 05:54:44 PM »

Giving all states with margin of victory smaller than 5% to a loser:

2008:



Obama: 291
McCain: 247

2004:



Kerry: 298
Bush: 240

2000:



Gore: 343
Bush: 195

1996:



Clinton: 348
Dole: 190

1992:



Bush: 275
Clinton: 263

1988:



Bush: 301
Dukakis: 237

1984:



Reagan: 508
Mondale: 30

1980:



Reagan: 354
Carter: 184


Election winner change: 2004, 2008, 1992

No change: 2008, 2006, 1988, 1984, 1980
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2012, 08:28:21 AM »

1976:



Ford: 394
Carter: 144

1972:

No 5% difference in any state Sad

1968:



Humphrey: 330
Nixon: 152
Wallace: 56

1964:



Johnson: 468
Goldwater: 70

1960:



Nixon: 398
Kennedy: 131
Unpledged: 8

1956:



Eisenhower: 446
Stevenson: 85

1952:



Eisenhower: 411
Stevenson: 120

Winner change: 1976, 1968, 1960
No change: 1972, 1964, 1956, 1952
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2012, 08:36:09 AM »

1948:



Dewey: 299
Truman: 193
Thurmond: 39

1944:



Roosevelt: 297
Dewey: 234

1940:



Roosevelt: 293
Willkie: 238

1936:



Roosevelt: 519
Landon: 13

1932:



Roosevelt: 413
Hoover: 118


Winner change: 1948
No change: 1944, 1940, 1936, 1932
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2012, 08:51:13 AM »

1928:



Hoover: 379
Smith: 152

1924:



Coolidge: 360
Davis: 149
La Follette: 22

1920:



Harding: 392
Cox: 139

1916:



Hughes: 305
Wilson: 226

1912:



Wilson: 339
Roosevelt: 132
Taft: 60


Winner change: 1916
No change: 1928, 1924, 1920, 1912
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2012, 08:59:45 AM »

1908:



Taft: 283
Bryan: 200

1904:



Roosevelt: 317
Parker: 159

1990:



McKinley: 266
Bryan: 181

1896:



Bryan: 238
McKinley: 290


Winner change: 1896
No change: 1908, 1904, 1900
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2012, 09:10:15 AM »

1892:



Harrison: 267
Cleveland: 156
Weaver: 21

1888:



Cleveland: 289
Harrison: 112

1884:



Blaine: 278
Cleveland: 123

1880:



Hancock: 271
Garfield: 98
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2012, 09:20:35 AM »

1876:



Tilden: 299
Hayes: 70

1872:



Grant: 261
Greeley: 91

1868:



Grant: 156
Seymour: 138

1864:



Lincoln: 147
McClellan: 86
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2012, 04:16:13 PM »

cool.

is that supposed to be 200 for McKinley in 1896?
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2012, 04:05:38 PM »

1860:



Lincoln: 158
Breckinridge: 78
Douglas: 31
Bell: 36

1856:



Buchanan: 145
Fremont: 125
Fillmore: 26

1852:



Pierce: 206
Scott: 90

1848:



Cass: 181
Taylor: 109

1844:



Clay: 195
Polk: 88

1840:



Van Buren: 153
Harrison: 141
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2012, 01:55:15 AM »

Since there were no states with -5% margin in 1972, I give McGovern all states with margin -10%



Nixon: 492
McGovern: 46


George is still losing BIG time.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2012, 01:59:01 AM »

The same idea for 1964



Johnson: 442
Goldwater: 96
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2012, 02:02:23 AM »

And 1984:



Reagan: 418
Mondale: 120
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Knives
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2012, 06:09:31 AM »

Actually 2008 is like this...

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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #13 on: November 08, 2012, 02:19:58 AM »

what is your process for when there is 3 or 4 candidates Kalwejt? are you only switching when the state winner gets more votes nationally than the runner-up?
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #14 on: November 18, 2012, 07:10:35 AM »

what is your process for when there is 3 or 4 candidates Kalwejt? are you only switching when the state winner gets more votes nationally than the runner-up?

For example, if Breckinridge was first and Bell second, I flip them.
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Nym90
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« Reply #15 on: November 18, 2012, 08:03:28 PM »

I believe that you clicked Washington instead of Wisconsin for Bush in 1992 by mistake.
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« Reply #16 on: May 04, 2015, 04:43:14 PM »

That's quite an achievement. Obama still would have won in 2012.
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Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
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« Reply #17 on: May 04, 2015, 05:10:06 PM »

Gore 343 Bush 195 in 2000.  That's close enough to what would have happened if Gore had more sense (and less arrogance) to:

1) Bring Bill Clinton in to campaign
2) Put more than a halfhearted effort in Ohio and Tennessee
3) Be less of a jerk in that first debate (and other events)
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Hydera
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« Reply #18 on: May 04, 2015, 05:14:33 PM »

Gore 343 Bush 195 in 2000.  That's close enough to what would have happened if Gore had more sense (and less arrogance) to:

1) Bring Bill Clinton in to campaign
2) Put more than a halfhearted effort in Ohio and Tennessee
3) Be less of a jerk in that first debate (and other events)


1. Bill clinton was damaged goods due to the lewinsky scandal and gore knew that if he had clinton to campaign with him there would be a guilty by association.

2. Ohio and Tennessee was unlikely to be won by Gore due to the huge drop in support for democrats in rural areas.

3. Theres a video of gore using his height to try to intimidate Bush in one of the debates, gave people a very bad impression of gore.


And just to mention about florida. Gore would of won that state by a couple thousand votes had clinton just pardoned eilan gonzalez and let him stay in the US.
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Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
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« Reply #19 on: May 04, 2015, 05:27:49 PM »

Gore 343 Bush 195 in 2000.  That's close enough to what would have happened if Gore had more sense (and less arrogance) to:

1) Bring Bill Clinton in to campaign
2) Put more than a halfhearted effort in Ohio and Tennessee
3) Be less of a jerk in that first debate (and other events)


1. Bill clinton was damaged goods due to the lewinsky scandal and gore knew that if he had clinton to campaign with him there would be a guilty by association.

2. Ohio and Tennessee was unlikely to be won by Gore due to the huge drop in support for democrats in rural areas.

3. Theres a video of gore using his height to try to intimidate Bush in one of the debates, gave people a very bad impression of gore.


And just to mention about florida. Gore would of won that state by a couple thousand votes had clinton just pardoned eilan gonzalez and let him stay in the US.

1) Clinton's approval rating in Gallup (July-October 2000) was 57-62; disapproval was 34-38.   Damaged goods?  The 1998 election knocked that perception out the window (and fortunately, Newt Gingrich was thrown out as well).

2) Gore pulled out of Ohio in late September 2000; he lost 50-47.  A little bit of an effort late in the campaign could have made the difference.

3) And how could Clinton have pardoned Elian Gonzalez?  He wasn't accused (much less convicted) of a crime...
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