Gingrich had made things interesting, but he still had work to do if he actually wanted to win. Known as a skilled debater, he began to rely on the debates as his way to get back into the race. While his fundraising numbers were strong, they weren't nearly as strong as what Romney's would have been, and he was way behind Obama.
The first debate rolled around, and it was clear that President Obama was relying on his lead, which was hovering around 7%. Gingrich came out swinging, and he was successful, similar to how Romney was in RL. After the debate, undecided voters said Gingrich won by a 62-25 margin. More importantly, Gingrich had pulled even on the question "Who do you trust more to turn around the economy?" The following week, the VP candidates debated, and this proved to be the gamechanger. Biden spent the entire debate acting very emotional, and interrupted Secretary Rice on numerous occasions, yet she fought back most of the time. However, the memorable moment happened during one exchange when Biden was speaking, Rice cut him off, to which Biden retorted "Well, that wasn't a ladylike thing to do." Polls after showed that women voters were extremely turned off by the statement, and voters overwhelmingly saw Rice as the winner.
The second and third debates proved to be critical to Obama - polls now showed him and Gingrich even, with Gingrich even leading in the occasional poll. While the town-hall debate was an improvement for Obama, polls still showed that most voters were more impressed with Gingrich, who was coming across extremely knowledgeable in the debates, as he did in the primaries. The final debate, focused on foreign policy, was a huge improvement for the President, as a slim majority actually saw him winning the debate, but it was clear that with less than two weeks until the election, Gingrich was starting to get momentum.
The day of the election, the map looked like this:
Exit polls showed a tight race - the race hinged entirely on Ohio, where the last three polls had Obama ahead by 1, Gingrich ahead by 3, and a tie. Ultimately, Gingrich narrowly wins the election, winning the popular vote by just over 2%. His win is attributed to keeping the female vote razor-thin while also making huge improvements for the GOP with Latino voters.
Gingrich/Rice - 50.3% PV, 287 EV
Obama/Biden - 48.2% PV, 251 EV