Quinnipiac last polls for OH, VA, and FL tomorrow morning (7 AM)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 07:36:47 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Quinnipiac last polls for OH, VA, and FL tomorrow morning (7 AM)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4
Author Topic: Quinnipiac last polls for OH, VA, and FL tomorrow morning (7 AM)  (Read 7090 times)
Minnesota Mike
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,969


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: October 31, 2012, 12:00:32 AM »

We have some leakage.

http://www.mercurynews.com/top-stories/ci_21892682/poll-ohios-working-class-may-be-key-obama

Obama up 50-45 in Ohio, Virginia and Florida essentially tied.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: October 31, 2012, 12:00:32 AM »

THE NUMBERS HAVE LEAKED: http://www.mercurynews.com/top-stories/ci_21892682/poll-ohios-working-class-may-be-key-obama

Obama leads Ohio 50-45, Virginia and Florida are "essentially tied."


edit: Aw man, you beat me. Sad
Logged
Minnesota Mike
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,969


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: October 31, 2012, 12:01:56 AM »

THE NUMBERS HAVE LEAKED: http://www.mercurynews.com/top-stories/ci_21892682/poll-ohios-working-class-may-be-key-obama

Obama leads Ohio 50-45, Virginia and Florida are "essentially tied."

Wow. Posted at the exact same time.
Logged
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,251


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: October 31, 2012, 12:02:43 AM »

If this holds, the white working class will really have done Obama a solid. As a product of such a background myself--albeit in Massachusetts and Vermont, so a very different type of white working class from the kind one expects in Ohio--I'll be rather proud in that event.
Logged
Marokai Backbeat
Marokai Blue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,477
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -7.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: October 31, 2012, 12:03:37 AM »

Nothing makes me prouder, this election cycle, than the fact that when it comes to making voting decisions a decent chunk of whites here in Ohio are thinking more about their class than their "culture" or race. If only that would happen more often. Thinking with their heads.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: October 31, 2012, 12:03:58 AM »

wow 'Seriously' you are a bit thick aren't you?

No, actually pollsters call numbers randomly and amass a pool of adult responses.  They then reweight the poll to census data. So if they get 60% women responding they adjust the weight.   Bear in mind that over 90% of respondents do not agree to take the survey. This issue of response rate has become a big problem. There is some evidence that there is some response bias after certain events like conventions where those of a particular political persuasion are more enthused and more likely to agree to be polled. But again the pollster does not map anything out before they begin calling except to make sure their calls are balanced geographically.

The fundamental misunderstanding with the new attack on polling is a belief that pollsters predetermine what the party ID makeup will be. The only pollsters who do that are Rasmussen and the Battleground poll.
I am not talking about party identification. Most pollsters do not touch party ID. However, do adjust adjust polling for race, gender, age, etc. If they use solely census data for that, their methodology is likely flawed.

Turnout does not equal census data as all races, ages and even gender do not vote equally. Women vote more than men. Whites vote more than Hispanics. Old people vote more than young people.

At the end of the day, no matter how many phone calls you make, the data is never perfect.

There has to be some sort of judgment call made and the data has to be raked to mirror some reasonable expectation of what the electorate will be.
Logged
Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,376
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: October 31, 2012, 12:04:24 AM »
« Edited: October 31, 2012, 12:07:15 AM by AWallTEP81 »


I will continue to gloat about how I have this election nailed down until SOMETHING proves me wrong.  

Might have missed VA by 1 or 2.

Ohio is going for Obama... there is little that can stop that now.  I want to see one objective argument for Romney to pull off Ohio at this point.  Almost 40% of them have voted and those who have yet to are not giving Romney what he needs by a longshot.  
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: October 31, 2012, 12:04:56 AM »


You literally beat me by milliseconds! Tongue
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: October 31, 2012, 12:05:40 AM »

Yay, I got OH right Tongue
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,934
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: October 31, 2012, 12:07:12 AM »

Remarkably stable numbers across various polls. Ohio is firm.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: October 31, 2012, 12:07:40 AM »

I wonder what "essentially tied" means...
Logged
Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,376
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: October 31, 2012, 12:08:38 AM »

I wonder what "essentially tied" means...

within MOE
Logged
Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: October 31, 2012, 12:09:45 AM »

Where does it say VA and FL are tied?
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: October 31, 2012, 12:10:34 AM »


I know. Just wondering if we'll see Romney +2 or Obama +2 type results.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: October 31, 2012, 12:10:42 AM »

Obama lead within the MoE = essentially tied.
Romney lead within the MoE = Romney surges into the lead.

At least that's how CNN would report it. Tongue
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,166
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: October 31, 2012, 12:11:04 AM »


Mwahahahahahaha!

evilcatfromemperorsnewgroove.gif


But seriously, that makes PPP, Grove, Quinnipiac, and SUSA all with Obama up at least 3 since the 28th. Even Gravis has O+1. Ohio's in the bag.
Logged
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,251


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: October 31, 2012, 12:12:05 AM »


I know. Just wondering if we'll see Romney +2 or Obama +2 type results.

I'd expect the former in Florida and the latter in Virginia, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the latter in both states. The former in both states would surprise me a little, and the former in Virginia with the latter in Florida would surprise me a lot, although maybe not as much as it would without the hurricane.
Logged
TrapperHawk
Rookie
**
Posts: 106
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -4.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: October 31, 2012, 12:12:39 AM »

Sweet. I would rather love to see the exact numbers for Florida and Virginia right now, but beggars can't be choosers I suppose.
Logged
ajb
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 869
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: October 31, 2012, 12:14:26 AM »

wow 'Seriously' you are a bit thick aren't you?

No, actually pollsters call numbers randomly and amass a pool of adult responses.  They then reweight the poll to census data. So if they get 60% women responding they adjust the weight.   Bear in mind that over 90% of respondents do not agree to take the survey. This issue of response rate has become a big problem. There is some evidence that there is some response bias after certain events like conventions where those of a particular political persuasion are more enthused and more likely to agree to be polled. But again the pollster does not map anything out before they begin calling except to make sure their calls are balanced geographically.

The fundamental misunderstanding with the new attack on polling is a belief that pollsters predetermine what the party ID makeup will be. The only pollsters who do that are Rasmussen and the Battleground poll.
I am not talking about party identification. Most pollsters do not touch party ID. However, do adjust adjust polling for race, gender, age, etc. If they use solely census data for that, their methodology is likely flawed.

Turnout does not equal census data as all races, ages and even gender do not vote equally. Women vote more than men. Whites vote more than Hispanics. Old people vote more than young people.

At the end of the day, no matter how many phone calls you make, the data is never perfect.

There has to be some sort of judgment call made and the data has to be raked to mirror some reasonable expectation of what the electorate will be.
They use census data to weight their sample of registered voters according to race, age and sex, typically. Then they ask a series of questions to determine how likely a particular voter is to vote -- questions ranging from "how excited are you about voting?" to "do you know where the polling place is in your neighborhood?" to "did you vote in 2008/2010?"
The likely voter numbers then come from the subset of registered voters who made it through this likely voter screen. You'll not that age, race and sex do not play a role here. So if some particular demographic is unlikely to vote, the typical pollster doesn't weight them less because of that, but individual voters from that demographic who fail the likely voter screen won't show up in the likely voter numbers.
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: October 31, 2012, 12:22:13 AM »

wow 'Seriously' you are a bit thick aren't you?

No, actually pollsters call numbers randomly and amass a pool of adult responses.  They then reweight the poll to census data. So if they get 60% women responding they adjust the weight.   Bear in mind that over 90% of respondents do not agree to take the survey. This issue of response rate has become a big problem. There is some evidence that there is some response bias after certain events like conventions where those of a particular political persuasion are more enthused and more likely to agree to be polled. But again the pollster does not map anything out before they begin calling except to make sure their calls are balanced geographically.

The fundamental misunderstanding with the new attack on polling is a belief that pollsters predetermine what the party ID makeup will be. The only pollsters who do that are Rasmussen and the Battleground poll.
I am not talking about party identification. Most pollsters do not touch party ID. However, do adjust adjust polling for race, gender, age, etc. If they use solely census data for that, their methodology is likely flawed.

Turnout does not equal census data as all races, ages and even gender do not vote equally. Women vote more than men. Whites vote more than Hispanics. Old people vote more than young people.

At the end of the day, no matter how many phone calls you make, the data is never perfect.

There has to be some sort of judgment call made and the data has to be raked to mirror some reasonable expectation of what the electorate will be.

The census data is used solely to ensure the adult baseline is correct. Only then do they chuck the non registered voters and then they apply their LV model. And BTW every pollsters LV model is showing a better result for Ro,ney than their RV sample. On average it is around 4% better for Romney.

Im sorry but you really dont seem to understand polling.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: October 31, 2012, 12:34:54 AM »

Nothing makes me prouder, this election cycle, than the fact that when it comes to making voting decisions a decent chunk of whites here in Ohio are thinking more about their class than their "culture" or race. If only that would happen more often. Thinking with their heads.

So true. I really hope this is a durable trend in US politics, that the conservative brainwashing on working-class whites is finally withering away...
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: October 31, 2012, 12:35:48 AM »


I will continue to gloat about how I have this election nailed down until SOMETHING proves me wrong.  

Might have missed VA by 1 or 2.

Ohio is going for Obama... there is little that can stop that now.  I want to see one objective argument for Romney to pull off Ohio at this point.  Almost 40% of them have voted and those who have yet to are not giving Romney what he needs by a longshot.  
Objective argument?

1) I don't believe the early vote is anywhere near 40%, more like 20-25%. (21.6% of the 2008 vote total through 10/26).
2) The heavily-Democrat Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) has fallen behind their 2008 early vote numbers.
3) Absentees are favoring Republicans by 9-percent in 2012 vs. 2008. (Arguably, "Operation Chaos" in 2008 and the fluidity of how you identify as a D/R/I in Ohio can erode this argument.)
4) Republicans have already surpassed their 2008 totals in early voting in Ohio. Democrats were down by about 200,000 as of last week. (See drawbacks in point 3).
5) The candidates are still fiercely contesting the state, telling me that the race is likely within a few points, not five.

I'm not saying Obama's not ahead here. The data points seem to suggest a slight lead. But I don't see it as a five-point lead.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: October 31, 2012, 12:38:51 AM »

Nothing makes me prouder, this election cycle, than the fact that when it comes to making voting decisions a decent chunk of whites here in Ohio are thinking more about their class than their "culture" or race. If only that would happen more often. Thinking with their heads.

So true. I really hope this is a durable trend in US politics, that the conservative brainwashing on working-class whites is finally withering away...

Well, in Ohio anyway...
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: October 31, 2012, 12:41:49 AM »

Objective argument?

1) I don't believe

Someone hasn't quite gotten the meaning of the word "objective" it seems...
Logged
Ty440
GoldenBoy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 668
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: October 31, 2012, 01:16:48 AM »

If these numbers come out favorable or even somewhat favorable for Obama i think it's pretty much the nail in the coffin.

I always thought Romney would maybe have a late surge in Ohio, remember how Obama led McCain in Missouri by around 2.5% until the last week  and McCain surged ahead around Thursday or Friday before the election.

There can't be many more Ohio polls by decent pollsters left to go, if  a Romney surge is going to happen then we should have started seeing it by now.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.057 seconds with 14 queries.