Quinnipiac last polls for OH, VA, and FL tomorrow morning (7 AM)

[Yank2133]

Setting up a thread early.

[Ljube]

Expecting good results?

[Gass3268]

Predictions:
Ohio: Obama +3
Virginia: Obama +2
Florida: Tied or +/-1 for either candidate

[Eraserhead]

Polling VA right now is a bit sketchy.

[Ty440]

Does anyone know a website where these might leak early , I miss 2004 when polls would leak early left and right.

[Mr.Phips]

An Obama lead in Florida in a Qpac poll would be very good news for him.  They are very good pollsters here. 

If Obama isnt ahead by at least four in their Ohio poll, that's good news for Romney.  Their Ohio polling leans significantly to the left. 

[Eraserhead]

I'll predict:

FL: Romney +1

VA: Romney +2

OH: Obama +3

[JohnCA246]

I predict

OH Obama+5 or 6 (not that I think that is accurate)
FL Obama+2

[Devils30]

Are these Quinnipiac on their own or the ones partnered with the NY Times?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Florida - Romney +1
Virginia - Obama  +2
Ohio - Obama +5

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

OH: Obama up 5
VA: Obama up 3
FL: tied

[Cliffy]

They've had a very pro Obama stance this whole election so I think it's safe to assume they will push something like this

OH: Obama up 5
VA: Obama up 3
FL: Obama up 1

[Eraserhead]

They've had a very pro Obama stance this whole election so I think it's safe to assume they will push something like this

OH: Obama up 5
VA: Obama up 3
FL: Obama up 1

lol. I see Cliffy is playing the expectations game now.

[Seriously?]

Predictions:
Ohio: Obama +3
Virginia: Obama +2
Florida: Tied or +/-1 for either candidate

Quinnipiac?

Ohio: Obama +5
Virginia:Obama +3
Florida: Obama +1

All the Democrats on this board in glee, even though the poll is modeled on '08 turnout.

[dirks]

I expect nothing less than D+6 bs models...if not more

[Likely Voter]

Define "model"

I dont think you understand how polling works

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Define "model"

I dont think you understand how polling works

I think this might be the motto of this campaign season.

[Reds4]

I'll take a stab:

Florida: Romney +1
Virginia: Obama +2
Ohio: Obama +4

[Seriously?]

Define "model"

I dont think you understand how polling works

Yeah, I don't understand polling one iota. You're right. Only folks with D's next to their names understand how polling works on this board, I forgot.

In most of these polls:
1) There is an oversampling of the folks who claimed to have voted early and the numbers by the local secretary of states as to the actual size of the poll. Those voters as a subgroup are not part of a statistically significant sample in the 500-750 sample size polls.
2) There appears to be something amiss when it comes to the so-called "enthusiasm factor." The polling data of early voters does not adequately reflect the partisan breakdown of those who have ACTUALLY voted early. Unless, of course, you assume that Romney is not getting his fair share of Republican vote (something not supported by the data).
3) If you look at the ACTUAL data, Obama's GOTV campaign is lagging behind '08 by a good number. The Republicans have eroded the Obama early vote advantage.
4) There's a divergence of the state polls and the national polls where the swing factor does not match up with the polling data.
5) While pollsters allow voters to self identify party affiliation, they do sauce the polls for turnout based on race, age and gender and other factors. In order to do so, they generally use the two previous exit polls to sauce their data. The 2004 exit poll suggested a Kerry win and was pretty much useless useless. The 2008 exit poll will oversample young voters and other groups that the data shows will not show up in as big percentages on election day.

For example, Ohio is a Cook R+1 state, but you're getting O+3 results in a nationalized election that's somewhere between O+1 and R+5.

So then you have to ask why that is?

You can argue that it's a superior ground campaign by Obama, but by doing so you are going well against history. Does that make sense? Can a state "be bought" with ads to historically break away from where it's been throughout history? Possibly. But excuse me for being skeptical.

[Devils30]

For example, Ohio is a Cook R+1 state, but you're getting O+3 results in a nationalized election that's somewhere between O+1 and R+5.

Because the auto bailout is a unique factor making Ohio closer to a D+1 state this year. Cook PVIs change cycle to cycle.

[Seriously?]

For example, Ohio is a Cook R+1 state, but you're getting O+3 results in a nationalized election that's somewhere between O+1 and R+5.

Because the auto bailout is a unique factor making Ohio closer to a D+1 state this year. Cook PVIs change cycle to cycle.

That's a plausible argument, but Ohio's standard deviation for Democrats in particular has not deviated that much from the national vote share.

A tenable argument can also be made that the bailout's influence could be balanced by the coal effect in the SE part of the state. I'd argue in the alternative that if Obama does outperform the norm in Ohio it's more to to do with ad strategy rather than anything else.

[Likely Voter]

points 1-4 are gobblygook saying people are lying so not worth addressing beyond how there is a lag with early voting and counting...plus all these complaints came before early voting so on too...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And boom goes the "model". Unfortunately for you that actually isnt how things work. . Almost all pollsters first gather a pool of adult americans and then they apply census data to that pool to match demographics. They then remove non registered voters and then (and only then) do they apply their LV model.  The exit polls are not a factor.

[Seriously?]

points 1-4 are gobblygook saying people are lying so not worth addressing beyond how there is a lag with early voting and counting...plus all these complaints came before early voting so on too...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And boom goes the "model". Unfortunately for you that actually isnt how things work. . Almost all pollsters first gather a pool of adult americans and then they apply census data to that pool to match demographics. They then remove non registered voters and then (and only then) do they apply their LV model.  The exit polls are not a factor.

Wow, wait? You mean pollsters simply pick a pool of adults at random, then call those customers, get a uniform response by race and don't have to do any reweighting. I see. I'm enlightened now.

[Cliffy]

Well I've anticipated all of the liberal polls for the most part, it's not hard to do, they have continued to think turnout will be at 08 or better.  It's just coincidence that before the debate they needed 08 turnout or close to show an Obama win and then after the debate they needed better to show a tie or win.....  

Given that we're talking about far left liberal propaganda firms that are all in for Obama, it's been easy to anticipate their moves, credibility doesn't mean anything to them, retention of the far left agenda does.  The only thing that would surprise me would be PPP, Marist, Susa, Quinn,etc moving to more realistic samples.

The left has lost the middle/moderates because of Obama and the far left take over of your party you just don't know it yet, you'll see on Nov 6th.

[Likely Voter]

wow 'Seriously' you are a bit thick aren't you?

No, actually pollsters call numbers randomly and amass a pool of adult responses.  They then reweight the poll to census data. So if they get 60% women responding they adjust the weight.   Bear in mind that over 90% of respondents do not agree to take the survey. This issue of response rate has become a big problem. There is some evidence that there is some response bias after certain events like conventions where those of a particular political persuasion are more enthused and more likely to agree to be polled. But again the pollster does not map anything out before they begin calling except to make sure their calls are balanced geographically.

The fundamental misunderstanding with the new attack on polling is a belief that pollsters predetermine what the party ID makeup will be. The only pollsters who do that are Rasmussen and the Battleground poll.