National Early Vote: Gallup

[pepper11]

Not surprising.  Remember- most of the Democratic-leaning states in the Northeast don't have early voting.  Meanwhile, the Republican South has early voting.

How do you explain the 22 point swing in gallups results from 2008? Northeast states didn't vote early then either.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/30/Gallup-Shows-22-point-drop-in-obama-early-voting-advantage

[J. J.]

Would you actually care to site a national poll that says this?  This is the only one I've heard of and it is pretty meaningless, so other pollsters don't do it.  Gallup just had some free time on its hands. 

In their last day the IPSOS/Reuters poll found Obama ahead among early voters 58-39.

Today's PPP poll finds Obama ahead among early voters 59-41.

IIRC, the last NBC/WSJ poll also found Obama winning among early voters, albeit by a narrower margin.

Oh, and next time try to quote properly. You aren't a newbie around here.

Do you have a link to the PPP?  IPOS is problematic and isn't a separate poll.  Neither is the appalling Marist poll. 

[Cliffy]

Gallup is way closer to GMU professor early vote tracking like 3-4%

VS

the polls you're quoting are 100% inflated compared to GMU results,  which is why I keep saying they are not credible.

Would you actually care to site a national poll that says this?  This is the only one I've heard of and it is pretty meaningless, so other pollsters don't do it.  Gallup just had some free time on its hands. 

In their last day the IPSOS/Reuters poll found Obama ahead among early voters 58-39.

Today's PPP poll finds Obama ahead among early voters 59-41.

IIRC, the last NBC/WSJ poll also found Obama winning among early voters, albeit by a narrower margin.

Oh, and next time try to quote properly. You aren't a newbie around here.

[pepper11]

Gallup is way closer to GMU professor early vote tracking like 3-4%

VS

the polls you're quoting are 100% inflated compared to GMU results,  which is why I keep saying they are not credible.

Would you actually care to site a national poll that says this?  This is the only one I've heard of and it is pretty meaningless, so other pollsters don't do it.  Gallup just had some free time on its hands. 

In their last day the IPSOS/Reuters poll found Obama ahead among early voters 58-39.

Today's PPP poll finds Obama ahead among early voters 59-41.

IIRC, the last NBC/WSJ poll also found Obama winning among early voters, albeit by a narrower margin.

Oh, and next time try to quote properly. You aren't a newbie around here.

Cliffy, What is GMU and do you have link?

[Lief 🗽]

Gallup is way closer to GMU professor early vote tracking like 3-4%

No, McDonald (link) says that 13% have already voted, and that's not counting the millions of ballots that are in the mail, haven't been processed yet, or have been filled out but not mailed in yet.

[J. J.]

Gallup is way closer to GMU professor early vote tracking like 3-4%

No, McDonald (link) says that 13% have already voted, and that's not counting the millions of ballots that are in the mail, haven't been processed yet, or have been filled out but not mailed in yet.

Some of those are fairly likely to miss the deadline.  It's not exactly like they have a few weeks to get them in.   

[ajb]

Gallup is way closer to GMU professor early vote tracking like 3-4%

No, McDonald (link) says that 13% have already voted, and that's not counting the millions of ballots that are in the mail, haven't been processed yet, or have been filled out but not mailed in yet.

It's also not counting the ballots that have been mailed in, and logged, but not entered into data posted on a particular county website. Political junkies may expect every county in the nation to be posting mail-in votes in real time, but that seems optimistic, if I know anything about local government.

[J. J.]

Gallup is way closer to GMU professor early vote tracking like 3-4%

No, McDonald (link) says that 13% have already voted, and that's not counting the millions of ballots that are in the mail, haven't been processed yet, or have been filled out but not mailed in yet.

It's also not counting the ballots that have been mailed in, and logged, but not entered into data posted on a particular county website. Political junkies may expect every county in the nation to be posting mail-in votes in real time, but that seems optimistic, if I know anything about local government.

Except in some states like WA, there are relatively few coming in on a day to day basis. 

[ajb]

Gallup is way closer to GMU professor early vote tracking like 3-4%

No, McDonald (link) says that 13% have already voted, and that's not counting the millions of ballots that are in the mail, haven't been processed yet, or have been filled out but not mailed in yet.

It's also not counting the ballots that have been mailed in, and logged, but not entered into data posted on a particular county website. Political junkies may expect every county in the nation to be posting mail-in votes in real time, but that seems optimistic, if I know anything about local government.

Except in some states like WA, there are relatively few coming in on a day to day basis. 

All the more reason not to waste precious staff time posting stuff on the internet.

[ajb]

Gallup is way closer to GMU professor early vote tracking like 3-4%

No, McDonald (link) says that 13% have already voted, and that's not counting the millions of ballots that are in the mail, haven't been processed yet, or have been filled out but not mailed in yet.

It's also not counting the ballots that have been mailed in, and logged, but not entered into data posted on a particular county website. Political junkies may expect every county in the nation to be posting mail-in votes in real time, but that seems optimistic, if I know anything about local government.

Except in some states like WA, there are relatively few coming in on a day to day basis. 

All the more reason not to waste precious staff time posting stuff on the internet.

In fact, if you go to that page at GMU, you'll see that most counties in Ohio haven't been updated since 10/25, and none since 10/27. There's also the following footnote:

* Ohio total 2012 early vote is from current county reports, where available, plus a Ohio Secretary of State report as of Friday, Oct 19 where county reports are unavailable. I have spoken with Ohio election officials regarding their reports. The Ohio Secretary of State report is a voluntary report of information transmitted from the counties to the state office. The Secretary of State's office does no further verification of the county data. Some statistics available from the county sites are clearly in conflict with the Secretary of State's report. Since the county data are presumably the canonical data, I report the county level data where it is available, even if it has a lower total than the Secretary of State's report.

I spoke with Cuyahoga's media officer and confirmed that their report includes in-person votes even if it says "vote by mail." Generally, Ohio calls all ballots -- regardless if they are voted by mail or in-person -- absentee ballots. In-person votes are often identified in the county absentee reports as "IN OFFICE" or "OVER THE COUNTER".

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

So it would be quite strange if the numbers posted by GMU were correct, as they themselves are the first to say.

[Seriously?]

Not surprising.  Remember- most of the Democratic-leaning states in the Northeast don't have early voting.  Meanwhile, the Republican South has early voting.

How do you explain the 22 point swing in gallups results from 2008? Northeast states didn't vote early then either.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/30/Gallup-Shows-22-point-drop-in-obama-early-voting-advantage

That's because he can't. The swing is comparable with what we've been seeing in early absentee voting in states like Ohio and even Nevada. The swing is real. Obama is not defending Michigan with ads at this point because he can. Let's leave it at that.

[BigSkyBob]

Not surprising.  Remember- most of the Democratic-leaning states in the Northeast don't have early voting.  Meanwhile, the Republican South has early voting.

The South's share of the early vote is not much greater than its share of the population. It is in the West where the largest number of early votes have been cast.

[Gustaf]

What?

I can believe it.  

Of course you would. That's why you've become our favorite punching bag.

You didn't bother reading the explanation given in the thread? Care to offer some substance for a change, maybe?

You mean besides the fact that virtually every other NATIONAL poll gives Obama a substantial lead among early voters?
No, I've nothing else of substance to add.

But please, feel free to defend JJ's inanities, just like you do with Sarah Palin's. I won't interfere with your affection for reality-defying persons.

See that wasn't so hard! Good boy, I knew you had it in you.

And I'm not defending JJ either. I'm just pointing out that your post here was worthless in relation to the entire thread.