New Hampshire 2010 Senate race - Republican leads in the beginning by a moderate amount, but after the primaries, it appears to be tightening up, only for the Republican to start pulling away and then win on Election Day by a margin nobody would have predicted a couple months before.
Kind of similar, eh? 
Dalton is a better candidate than Hodes.
I think the biggest dynamic here was that McCrory had 4 years to campaign whereas Dalton had 10 months.
At this rate, I think something about 54-44 would be realistic.
