OH, Ras: Romney in the lead

[President von Cat]

I'm positive Rasmussen is just trying to mess with the RCP averages at this point.

[RI]

This is about as believable as PPP's poll saying Obama is leading in Florida.

[Seriously?]

This is the first Rasmussen poll in Ohio that has had Romney ahead since back on May 31st. Good news!

And that right there should tell you Rasmussen is full of crap.

Except for the fact that a tied race suggests a Romney +1 or +2 historically in Ohio. An R+3 race nationally assumes even a bigger lead.

But we'll ignore that because it isn't convenient enough for the Obama narrative.

Except every other poll has Obama leading or at best tied for Romney.

When one poll sticks out, it is usually an outlier.....polling 101.

Yeah, because just about every single one of these polls isn't within the same +2 to +3 MOE.

I'll look at the national trend, history and the state's PVI before coming to a conclusion as to which polls are outliers and which ones are not outliers.

You basically have an even race in Ohio. +2 either way is not unreasonable in any polling result.

[wan]

Link

Romney 50
Obama 48



Absolutely glorious news!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRvAAYjmqkE

PPP released a polll last night that has Obama leading 51-47 in Ohio. Rasmussen lost it's edge in polling years ago.

[Earthling]

Romney is slowly losing ground in national poll on Rasmussen but at the same time he pulls ahead in Ohio, for the first time since May?

This poll is not surprising. Scott probably wants to be on Fox today and what better way to do that by showing a poll that has Romney leading in Ohio. The trolls on Fox will go wild about that.

[Ljube]

A two point lead within the margin of error is not very convincing.

It's actual votes that matter, not polls.

Pollsters have a tough time polling people correctly due to low response and huge early voting efforts. I also think Democrats tend to not respond to Rasmussen inquiries and Republicans to PPP. That seems to be the root cause for their perceived partisan bias and not their respective agenda.

[Franzl]

A two point lead within the margin of error is not very convincing.

It's actual votes that matter, not polls.

Pollsters have a tough time polling people correctly due to low response and huge early voting efforts. I also think Democrats tend to not respond to Rasmussen inquiries and Republicans to PPP. That seems to be the root cause for their perceived partisan bias and not their respective agenda.

I doubt most voters have ever heard of these firms.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Jeez, who would expect that Rasmussen would come out a week before the election showing Mittens (barely) ahead?
I'm genuinely surprised.

[tmthforu94]

New Poll: Ohio President by Rasmussen on 2012-10-28

Summary: D: 48%, R: 50%, I: 1%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Ljube]

The early voting numbers are bad for Romney in Ohio.
Here's a tweet from Adrian Gray, Bush’s assistant in 2000 and 2004.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Likely Voter]

If Rasmussen's model of the electorate is accurate, then I'm sure Romney will win OH and a few other states. One question is, how much does Rasmussen's national reweighting apply to their OH poll as OH has been shown to be bucking the national trend, especially with white men.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Rasmussen being Rasmussen.

[Eraserhead]

Probably off but it must be close enough that he feels like he can safely try to create a narrative. It's going to be an exciting election night!

[Badger]

The early voting numbers are bad for Romney in Ohio.
Here's a tweet from Adrian Gray, Bush’s assistant in 2000 and 2004.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

How is that bad for Romney? An 8% GOP shift, whether a gross increase of GOP vote share or even just PVI, from 2008 would translate to a Romney win (assuming that increase correlates to final statewide totals, of course).

[Franzl]

Probably off but it must be close enough that he feels like he can safely try to create a narrative. It's going to be an exciting election night!

He still has time to show one with Obama up 1 before Election Day.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Guys, the Rasmussen poll is junk, but the PPP poll is the unquestionable gold standard.

[Yank2133]

Guys, the Rasmussen poll is junk, but the PPP poll is the unquestionable gold standard.

The PPP poll is in line with CNN and Time results, therefore there is a bit more credibility with their results.

Rasmussen is the only pollster to have Romney leading at the moment.

It is not that hard to figure out.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Well, it is the first 'lead' Romney's had in Ohio for a while, even if the source is a bit questionable, so I'll let them have their moment.

ronmeys goin 2 win o hi o woohoo xD!!!!

[BigSkyBob]

I see the left is in full bash Rasmussen mode. Rasmussen now shows, state by state,  Romney winning [McCain+IN,NC,FL,VA,OH, CO, and NH] with WI and IA in play. His swing state tracker, and national poll has implied this fact for some number of days.

For all the bluster about Rasmussen having a "house effect" for the Republicans, the reality is that it is the polling industry that shows a "house effect" for the Democrats. Obama came nowhere near his final RCP average. Given how heavily Ohio has been polled, it is converging to the industry consensus. Subtract the industry "house effect" for Democrats, and Ohio is lean Romney, or tied. So much for the Ohio firewall BS.

On the other hand, Rasmussen called Obama's final margin within one point. Go ahead and deny facts.

[traininthedistance]

Guys, the Rasmussen poll is junk, but the PPP poll is the unquestionable gold standard.

There is no such thing as an unquestionable gold standard.

[Torie]

I see the left is in full bash Rasmussen mode. Rasmussen now shows, state by state,  Romney winning [McCain+IN,NC,FL,VA,OH, CO, and NH] with WI and IA in play. His swing state tracker, and national poll has implied this fact for some number of days.

For all the bluster about Rasmussen having a "house effect" for the Republicans, the reality is that it is the polling industry that shows a "house effect" for the Democrats. Obama came nowhere near his final RCP average. Given how heavily Ohio has been polled, it is converging to the industry consensus. Subtract the industry "house effect" for Democrats, and Ohio is lean Romney, or tied. So much for the Ohio firewall BS.

On the other hand, Rasmussen called Obama's final margin within one point. Go ahead and deny facts.

As I said, what we all desperately need is a suspension of all polls for the balance of the week. The developing symptoms are a bit disturbing.

[Ljube]

The early voting numbers are bad for Romney in Ohio.
Here's a tweet from Adrian Gray, Bush’s assistant in 2000 and 2004.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

How is that bad for Romney? An 8% GOP shift, whether a gross increase of GOP vote share or even just PVI, from 2008 would translate to a Romney win (assuming that increase correlates to final statewide totals, of course).

I don't expect a general swing of 8% in GOP favor. That would be a Romney win for sure.

I’m saying if Romney matches Bush’s turnout on Election Day with an 8% swing of early votes in his favor compared to 2008, he still loses.

[Likely Voter]

If you look at the final polls in 2008 of the three states where Obama had the smallest margin of victory (IN, NC and FL), Rasmussen had McCain winning all 3. Of the remaining 7 battlegrounds won by Obama Rasmussen underestimated Obama's lead in all but one (MN), by an average of around 3.7%.  Specifically for OH, the final Rasmussen poll had Obama tied. He won OH by 4.6.


BTW, PPP called every state right, but even they generally underestimated Obama by 1.5 points.

[J. J.]

This is the first Rasmussen poll in Ohio that has had Romney ahead since back on May 31st. Good news!

And that right there should tell you Rasmussen is full of crap.

Except for the fact that a tied race suggests a Romney +1 or +2 historically in Ohio. An R+3 race nationally assumes even a bigger lead.

But we'll ignore that because it isn't convenient enough for the Obama narrative.

Except every other poll has Obama leading or at best tied for Romney.

When one poll sticks out, it is usually an outlier.....polling 101.

These polls are all basically in the MOE, so it wouldn't be an outlier.  Just bloody close. 

[Umengus]

I see the left is in full bash Rasmussen mode. Rasmussen now shows, state by state,  Romney winning [McCain+IN,NC,FL,VA,OH, CO, and NH] with WI and IA in play. His swing state tracker, and national poll has implied this fact for some number of days.

For all the bluster about Rasmussen having a "house effect" for the Republicans, the reality is that it is the polling industry that shows a "house effect" for the Democrats. Obama came nowhere near his final RCP average. Given how heavily Ohio has been polled, it is converging to the industry consensus. Subtract the industry "house effect" for Democrats, and Ohio is lean Romney, or tied. So much for the Ohio firewall BS.

On the other hand, Rasmussen called Obama's final margin within one point. Go ahead and deny facts.

As I said, what we all desperately need is a suspension of all polls for the balance of the week. The developing symptoms are a bit disturbing.

polls are drugs and we are the junkies...