The Official Dixville Notch and Hart's Location (NH) Prediction Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Dixville Notch and Hart's Location (NH) Prediction Thread  (Read 2562 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 29, 2012, 12:59:53 AM »
Those tiny locations vote first on November 6 @ midnight EST (6am Europe).

What are your predictions ?

Dixville is very hard to predict this year, because the population there dropped from about 100 in the 90s to about less than 10 this year (only 1 hotel remains there and the owners and employees are voting).

Hart's location should have about 30 or so voters.

The previous results:

Dixville Notch

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire#Federal_election_results

Hart's Location

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hart%27s_Location,_New_Hampshire#Federal_elections
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2012, 01:04:55 AM »
« Edited: October 29, 2012, 01:11:33 AM by Tender Branson »
My prediction:

Dixville Notch: 6-4 Obama/Romney

Hart's Location: 13-13-2 Obama/Romney/Paul (write-in) or 13-13-1-1 Obama/Romney/Paul (write-in)/Johnson
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2012, 01:11:02 AM »
Update:

There will be 10 registered voters in Dixville Notch this year and for the first time in 50 years, the voting will NOT take place in The Balsams Hotel (because it was sold and is now demolished), but in a ski lodge not far away.

http://www.unionleader.com/article/20121029/NEWS0605/710299928
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2012, 01:24:51 AM »
Here are the threads from 2008:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=87580.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=82452.0

And 2004:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=11937.0
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Fritz
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2012, 01:43:10 AM »
Doesn't all the early voting we have now kind of make this irrelevant?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2012, 01:44:29 AM »
Quote from: Fritz on October 29, 2012, 01:43:10 AM
Doesn't all the early voting we have now kind of make this irrelevant?

These are real counted votes though (even if these are not indicative).

With early votes, we just get a party breakdown, but no actual votes.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2012, 01:06:57 PM »
It's prediction time !
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2012, 03:49:39 AM »
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cavalcade
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2012, 08:33:32 PM »
« Edited: November 05, 2012, 08:39:02 PM by cavalcade »
Edit: whoops, busy board I guess!  Thanks mods.

I predict Obama 12, Romney 5 and Obama 15, Romney 11, Paul 1.
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pepper11
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2012, 08:40:49 PM »
What time are these tallies released?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2012, 08:52:17 PM »
Quote from: pepper11 on November 05, 2012, 08:40:49 PM
What time are these tallies released?

Last time around, the results were posted here at 12:12am:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=87580.0
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SetonHallPirate
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2012, 09:00:13 PM »
Wasn't Obama in 2008 the first time in 40+ years that Dixville Notch had gone for a Democrat?
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Paul Kemp
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2012, 09:09:49 PM »
I was at Dixville Notch four years ago and it was a pretty cool experience. There were representatives from the Chinese media there...
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exopolitician
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2012, 10:53:29 PM »
I'll throw out some numbers, hope it sticks.

Dixville: 5-5 Obama/Romney

Hart's Location: 14 Obama/ 12 Romney / 2 Johnson
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Vern
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2012, 11:00:13 PM »


Dixville: 8 - 2 Romney

Hart's Location: 15 Romney/ 12 Obama / 1 Other
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2012, 11:02:38 PM »
Dixville: 5-5

Hart's Location:  14-13-1 (Obama-Romney-Johnson)
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Bacon King
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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2012, 11:03:30 PM »
Dixville Notch:
6 Romney
4 Obama

Hart's Location:
13 Obama
12 Romney
1 Johnson
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Benj
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2012, 11:06:09 PM »
Quote from: SetonHallPirate on November 05, 2012, 09:00:13 PM
Wasn't Obama in 2008 the first time in 40+ years that Dixville Notch had gone for a Democrat?

Yes. They're not the best barometers of the country (understatement of the year). Before 2008, they lasted voted for a Democrat in... 1968, when they voted for Hubert Humphrey, who of course lost anyway. In 1992, Bill Clinton managed to come in fourth, behind H. W., Perot and the Libertarian candidate.
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jfern
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2012, 11:10:50 PM »
Quote from: Benj on November 05, 2012, 11:06:09 PM
Quote from: SetonHallPirate on November 05, 2012, 09:00:13 PM
Wasn't Obama in 2008 the first time in 40+ years that Dixville Notch had gone for a Democrat?

Yes. They're not the best barometers of the country (understatement of the year). Before 2008, they lasted voted for a Democrat in... 1968, when they voted for Hubert Humphrey, who of course lost anyway. In 1992, Bill Clinton managed to come in fourth, behind H. W., Perot and the Libertarian candidate.

Yeah, this doesn't exactly sound like the nationwide numbers in 1992.


    George H. W. Bush - 15
    H. Ross Perot - 8
    Andre Marrou - 5
    William J. Clinton - 2
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shua
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2012, 11:40:53 PM »
Dixville
5 Romney
4 Obama
1 Johnson

Hart's Location
15 Obama
13 Romney
2  Johnson
1  write-in: Ron Paul
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J. J.
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2012, 11:56:30 PM »
Dixville Notch:

6 Romney
3 Obama
1 Johnson

Hart's Location:

16  Romney
12  Obama
02  Johnson
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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2012, 12:04:53 AM »
Tie lol.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2012, 05:56:20 AM »
LoL at J.J. and vern1988 predictions. I hope you feel that optimistic about Ohio Wink
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Admiral Kizaru
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2012, 06:49:30 AM »
Actual Results

Dixville Notch

Obama - 5
Romney - 5

Hart's Location

Obama - 23
Romney - 9



Not a bad start by the president.

lol at some of the earlier predictions.
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Vern
vern1988
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« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2012, 07:25:00 AM »
Hey, I was only off by a lot. Lol.. I just took a random guess.
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