OH: Public Policy Polling: Obama up 51-47

[Badger]

Eh, I still think there's a sneaky path for Mitt through Wisconsin.

Only one he has.  He's aware of this. 

Yeah but that path can't work if he loses both Ohio and Virginia, right?

WI doesn't work without NV , CO, IA and VA right?

No, that's not right.  If Romney wins WI but loses OH, then he also has to win CO and VA, but then only needs one out of three among IA, NH, and NV.  Or alternately, if Romney loses both OH and WI, he'd need to win all of CO, VA, IA, and NV just to tie (and presumably win in the House of Representatives), plus NH if he wants to win without tying.

The only state on this list I'm fairly confident of Obama carrying is NV. So to put it another way, Romney HAS to carry OH or WI to win.

And the latter requires VA & CO, plus either IA or NH

[Badger]

Eh, I still think there's a sneaky path for Mitt through Wisconsin.

Only one he has.  He's aware of this. 

Yeah but that path can't work if he loses both Ohio and Virginia, right?

WI doesn't work without NV , CO, IA and VA right?

No, that's not right.  If Romney wins WI but loses OH, then he also has to win CO and VA, but then only needs one out of three among IA, NH, and NV.  Or alternately, if Romney loses both OH and WI, he'd need to win all of CO, VA, IA, and NV just to tie (and presumably win in the House of Representatives), plus NH if he wants to win without tying.

The only state on this list I'm fairly confident of Obama carrying is NV. So to put it another way, Romney HAS to carry OH or WI to win.

And the latter requires VA & CO, plus either IA or NH

Yes, we know, we know, Badger. Rub it in baby. Pity that the LDS fertility rate is not up around 15 or so, so that Utah gained 3 more electoral votes, rather than just one. Or something like that.

Hey, just calling it as I see it. There are more than enough cheerleaders on both sides on this board.

Besides, other than NV, I'm not sure there's a state on that list Romney can't realistically win. That includes OH, though that's the second least likely on the list, IMO.

Regardless, if Romnney can carry WI, he could realistically thread the needle with those other necessary states too.