MO-Mason Dixon: Romney+13

[J. J.]

Very good news. 

[J. J.]

I doubt McCaskill is only down 2... Obama probably loses this by 7-9 points.

M-D is one of the best pollsters out there and I could easily see Adkin willing this.  

[J. J.]

Rasmussen has a slight GOP bias.  I'm wondering if PPP still doesn't have a larger bias than everyone thinks.  A lot of their polls are the odd man out. 

[J. J.]

Missouri isn't a very elastic state, this type of swing would be unreal and indicate a solid Romney win on election night.

It is bizarre, even crazier when you factor in that MO has picked the winner in every election but two since 1904. And both times it picked the wrong winner the margin was razor thin.

Of the last four polls, only PPP was in single digits.  I think there is some sort of a weighting problem.  It's either with PPP or the other ones.  

[J. J.]

Missouri isn't a very elastic state, this type of swing would be unreal and indicate a solid Romney win on election night.

It is bizarre, even crazier when you factor in that MO has picked the winner in every election but two since 1904. And both times it picked the wrong winner the margin was razor thin.

Of the last four polls, only PPP was in single digits.  I think there is some sort of a weighting problem.  It's either with PPP or the other ones.  

What JJ neglects to mention is that the other two polls were from Wenzel Strategies (R) and (R)asmussen.

Rasmussen had him up 11; that is double digits.  I am unfamiliar with Wenzel.

[J. J.]

They seem to lean Republican in some states in 2008, but got others well.  They nailed Florida and Missouri, but had McCain up in Ohio and North Carolina.    They were perfect in 2004.  I really want to see their Ohio poll this year.  They nailed it in 2004.  If Obama is winning in the final Mason-Dixon Ohio poll, that will give me the clue that Obama has won. 


The one time they leaned Dem was in 2010 when they had Alex Sink ahead by three in their final poll in the Florida governor's race. 

Well, even a three point lean puts Romney up by double digits. 

The point I'm making is that we have four polls from MO, all showing Romney with a comfortable lead, all recent.  Three of them have it double digit lead and only PPP has it about half of that.  PPP also shows no movement.  Are these three off and PPP right?  Does PPP have a problem?

[J. J.]

Very good news. 

Really J.J.? I defended you in the Forum Community GOP hack poll.

Well, it is.  It is also traditional to post these types of things.