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October 20, 2020, 03:05:11 PM
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  MO-Mason Dixon: Romney+13
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Author Topic: MO-Mason Dixon: Romney+13  (Read 2409 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 26, 2012, 11:56:27 PM »



http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/political-fix/todd-akin-draws-closer-to-claire-mccaskill-in-missouri-senate/article_0eaa7ba3-cac9-54c8-81d7-e29c9bf8ef3b.html
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J. J.
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2012, 11:57:32 PM »

Very good news. 
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2012, 11:59:07 PM »

I doubt McCaskill is only down 2... Obama probably loses this by 7-9 points.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2012, 12:00:07 AM »

I doubt his lead is that big here.

Btw, I haven't paid attention to the MO gubernatorial race lately... is it actually that close now or does that seem off too?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2012, 12:02:46 AM »

All these races are a little Republican friendly by 3 or 4 points.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2012, 12:03:57 AM »

They also did a FL poll, which is probably released tomorrow.

But they say that Mack is "riding Romney's coattails". Mack is down by 3 in their new poll.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/tampa-bay-timesbay-news-9-poll-riding-romneys-coattails-mack-edges-closer/1258457

So, basically a small Romney lead ? Their last FL poll was Romney+7 ...
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J. J.
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2012, 12:05:14 AM »

I doubt McCaskill is only down 2... Obama probably loses this by 7-9 points.

M-D is one of the best pollsters out there and I could easily see Adkin willing this.  
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2012, 12:06:08 AM »

Mason-Dixon is going to be even more Republican-leaning than usual this year it seems.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2012, 12:07:29 AM »

Considering how all-over-the-place the polling has been this year... there are going to be a HELL of a lot red faces on Nov 7.
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Cliffy
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2012, 12:09:14 AM »

Akin and Mccaskil will be really close.  Akin has a lot of evangelical support in MO and there are a lot of evangelicals in MO.  Wouldn't surprise me if he won, they really don't like Mccaskil up there.  Romney will easily win MO by double digits......yeah, yeah, I know but St louis.....by double digits.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2012, 12:10:04 AM »

They also did a FL poll, which is probably released tomorrow.

But they say that Mack is "riding Romney's coattails". Mack is down by 3 in their new poll.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/tampa-bay-timesbay-news-9-poll-riding-romneys-coattails-mack-edges-closer/1258457

So, basically a small Romney lead ? Their last FL poll was Romney+7 ...

Probably Romney +5 or something like that.
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Cliffy
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2012, 12:11:48 AM »

Considering how all-over-the-place the polling has been this year... there are going to be a HELL of a lot red faces on Nov 7.

I know I know, it's going to be the conservatives, Ras and Gallup are way off.  Seems to me the last couple elections Ras has erred on the side of the Dems and understated the GOP vote.  Looks like right now Gallup and Ras are still doing that, wonder when they are going to switch to what their Party ID shows or if they'll err on the Dem side again.
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Cosmopolitanism Will Win
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2012, 12:13:00 AM »

Seems to me the last couple elections Ras has erred on the side of the Dems and understated the GOP vote.

...wat?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2012, 12:13:57 AM »

Seems to me the last couple elections Ras has erred on the side of the Dems and understated the GOP vote.  

No, the exact opposite.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #14 on: October 27, 2012, 12:16:47 AM »

Missouri isn't a very elastic state, this type of swing would be unreal and indicate a solid Romney win on election night.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2012, 12:19:41 AM »

Considering how all-over-the-place the polling has been this year... there are going to be a HELL of a lot red faces on Nov 7.

I know I know, it's going to be the conservatives, Ras and Gallup are way off.  Seems to me the last couple elections Ras has erred on the side of the Dems and understated the GOP vote.  Looks like right now Gallup and Ras are still doing that, wonder when they are going to switch to what their Party ID shows or if they'll err on the Dem side again.

Ras had a 3.8% GOP bias in 2010 and if you look at Gallup in 2008/2010... their issue isn't lean, it's about over-weighting enthusiasm, where it had Obama winning by 4% more than he did and the GOP winning the vote in 2010 by 15% instead of 7%... also not forgetting their odd 80% white electorate they seem to be operating on this year...
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Cliffy
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« Reply #16 on: October 27, 2012, 12:23:21 AM »

Seems to me the last couple elections Ras has erred on the side of the Dems and understated the GOP vote.  

No, the exact opposite.

final results nailed both

In 08 Rasmussen final poll was Obama 52-46

In o4 Rasmussen final poll was Bush 50.2 48.5
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J. J.
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« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2012, 12:30:47 AM »

Rasmussen has a slight GOP bias.  I'm wondering if PPP still doesn't have a larger bias than everyone thinks.  A lot of their polls are the odd man out. 
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Cliffy
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« Reply #18 on: October 27, 2012, 12:38:14 AM »

Rasmussen has a slight GOP bias.  I'm wondering if PPP still doesn't have a larger bias than everyone thinks.  A lot of their polls are the odd man out. 

I know that's the rep.  But he doesn't seem to be moving to what his turnout model suggest of R+1, he's still on at least D+3.....

I don't know if he doesn't want to catch crap like Gallup or what...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #19 on: October 27, 2012, 12:39:08 AM »

Rasmussen has a slight GOP bias.  I'm wondering if PPP still doesn't have a larger bias than everyone thinks.  A lot of their polls are the odd man out. 

I know that's the rep.  But he doesn't seem to be moving to what his turnout model suggest of R+1, he's still on at least D+3.....

I don't know if he doesn't want to catch crap like Gallup or what...

I believe it's D+1 at the moment... nationally.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #20 on: October 27, 2012, 12:39:22 AM »

Missouri isn't a very elastic state, this type of swing would be unreal and indicate a solid Romney win on election night.

It is bizarre, even crazier when you factor in that MO has picked the winner in every election but two since 1904. And both times it picked the wrong winner the margin was razor thin.
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Cliffy
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« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2012, 12:42:23 AM »

Nothing crazy, it won't be picking the wrong winner this time :Smiley
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J. J.
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« Reply #22 on: October 27, 2012, 12:44:55 AM »

Missouri isn't a very elastic state, this type of swing would be unreal and indicate a solid Romney win on election night.

It is bizarre, even crazier when you factor in that MO has picked the winner in every election but two since 1904. And both times it picked the wrong winner the margin was razor thin.

Of the last four polls, only PPP was in single digits.  I think there is some sort of a weighting problem.  It's either with PPP or the other ones.  
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #23 on: October 27, 2012, 12:59:06 AM »

Missouri isn't a very elastic state, this type of swing would be unreal and indicate a solid Romney win on election night.

It is bizarre, even crazier when you factor in that MO has picked the winner in every election but two since 1904. And both times it picked the wrong winner the margin was razor thin.

Of the last four polls, only PPP was in single digits.  I think there is some sort of a weighting problem.  It's either with PPP or the other ones.  

What JJ neglects to mention is that the other two polls were from Wenzel Strategies (R) and (R)asmussen.
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J. J.
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« Reply #24 on: October 27, 2012, 01:04:12 AM »

Missouri isn't a very elastic state, this type of swing would be unreal and indicate a solid Romney win on election night.

It is bizarre, even crazier when you factor in that MO has picked the winner in every election but two since 1904. And both times it picked the wrong winner the margin was razor thin.

Of the last four polls, only PPP was in single digits.  I think there is some sort of a weighting problem.  It's either with PPP or the other ones.  

What JJ neglects to mention is that the other two polls were from Wenzel Strategies (R) and (R)asmussen.

Rasmussen had him up 11; that is double digits.  I am unfamiliar with Wenzel.
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