So, who do you feel will win? And why?

[courts]

i thought romney would buy the election early on, then he basically did everything to screw that up up to literally insulting nearly half the country. now i'm starting to lean towards romney unexpectedly winning because of superior turn out/enthusiasm.

[Cory]

Obama. I think Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa will break for him and carry him across the finish line. Romney will probably win Florida, North Carolina, and Colorado.

Virginia is anybody's game, but if I had to guess now, Romney.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obama - primary reason, as a general rule challengers need to generate a wave to topple an incumbent... I see no evidence of this, especially when the incumbent has around 50% approvals. The primary reason why the PV is so close, and why Romney could win it, is Obama is performing much more like a normal Democrat electorally, those huge margins in MI, WI, CO, PA, CA, NH are gone - that shaves off millions of votes...

I think Romney's momentum started to putter out last week, and what we're hearing is bravado and trying to project an image of invincibility. Much like Kerry, I think Romney peaked too soon in the final month.

This is NOT going to be a 1980 style election, this is 2000/2004 a long, slow slog all the way to the end. This is equally NOT a national election like 2008 was, it's state by state - each managing their own idiosyncrasies, OH with the bailout, WI with a possible parochial element... which is why, much like 2000, when the state polling and the national polling aren't marrying up, trust the state polling... OH and the betting markets, they're a far better indicator than any poll.

10 days ago, even a week ago, I was preparing myself for Romney winning, but this week, I feel more confident than I have since the first debate. 

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama is going to win. Why? Because he's cooler. Just like Bush was cooler than Kerry and Gore, and Clinton was cooler than HW and Dole...

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Romney.  A month ago, I would have said Obama.  I've always thought we'd see a shift at the end. 

I'm surprised you're not a nationally recognized pundit yet, JJ. You just have a sixth sense when it comes to elections.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Obama - primary reason, as a general rule challengers need to generate a wave to topple an incumbent... I see no evidence of this, especially when the incumbent has around 50% approvals. The primary reason why the PV is so close, and why Romney could win it, is Obama is performing much more like a normal Democrat electorally, those huge margins in MI, WI, CO, PA, CA, NH are gone - that shaves off millions of votes...

I think Romney's momentum started to putter out last week, and what we're hearing is bravado and trying to project an image of invincibility. Much like Kerry, I think Romney peaked too soon in the final month.

This is NOT going to be a 1980 style election, this is 2000/2004 a long, slow slog all the way to the end. This is equally NOT a national election like 2008 was, it's state by state - each managing their own idiosyncrasies, OH with the bailout, WI with a possible parochial element... which is why, much like 2000, when the state polling and the national polling aren't marrying up, trust the state polling... OH and the betting markets, they're a far better indicator than any poll.

10 days ago, even a week ago, I was preparing myself for Romney winning, but this week, I feel more confident than I have since the first debate. 

This is a good post.

[Inmate Trump]

This is 2004 all over again.

Obama will win, even though he shouldn't...just as Bush won, but shouldn't have.  The reason?  The opposing party nominated, in each case, one of the least electable candidates in the running.  Still, I think it will be close and only decided by one state--maybe two...just like in '04.  In the end, things'll swing to the incumbents reelection.

[Vosem]

Honestly, if it wasn't for the early votes, I would be extremely confident of an Obama victory. It's the early votes, especially in Ohio (the 'Obama won by 260k in 2008; in 2012, 220k less Ds have voted and 30k more Rs, so Obama's only up 10k and that's sure to evaporate on Election Day' meme. It's true that because of Ohio's strange voter registration system, this probably exaggerates the Rs to some extent, because of those who registered R to vote in the competitive Romney/Santorum primary, but I don't think the registered Rs-who-vote-Obama effect, which mind you is real, will be enough to grant Obama victory; plus, when it comes to polls, yes Oakvale party I.D. is fluid, but there are limits to its fluidity...) that are making me comparatively confident of a Romney victory. Going by polls alone, Nate Silver is right. But he's not taking the EV (early votes) into account, and he admits polls can be wrong.

[J. J.]

Romney.  A month ago, I would have said Obama.  I've always thought we'd see a shift at the end. 

I'm surprised you're not a nationally recognized pundit yet, JJ. You just have a sixth sense when it comes to elections.

I had it in September as an Obama win.

Some of it, as Vosem indicated, is that early voting.  Those trends are pretty telling. 

[fezzyfestoon]

Obama. He seems to sit well in a tie situation, which is what I see unfolding. Maybe he wins by 1% or something, but he'll have more of an electoral edge. It would take a lot more for Romney to win than it would for Obama to win.

[tallguy23]

I felt like this would a 2004 election since Day 1. Obama will be reelected with a slim lead just like Bush in 2004. Romney is the GOP version of John Kerry; the boring, moderate, yet most electable candidate from his party. The GOP has a better shot in 2016 as long as Hillary doesn't run.

[milhouse24]

Obama is going to win. Why? Because he's cooler. Just like Bush was cooler than Kerry and Gore, and Clinton was cooler than HW and Dole...

Obama might be "too cool" and seen as aloof and uncaring of the nitty gritty.  He's partied hard, done a lot of drugs, smoked a lot of weed, snorted cocaine several times, and just seems too cool to be a politician. 

He's a media icon, not a real politician.

[Ljube]

I felt like this would a 2004 election since Day 1. Obama will be reelected with a slim lead just like Bush in 2004. Romney is the GOP version of John Kerry; the boring, moderate, yet most electable candidate from his party. The GOP has a better shot in 2016 as long as Hillary doesn't run.

Kerry isn't a moderate.

[Brittain33]

Obama, looking at the polls and the early voting numbers. Romney could upset but I don't think he will.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kerry isn't a moderate.

Pragmatic liberals like Obama and Kerry support centrist policies like bank bailouts and immigration reform.

I think Obama will win 290 electoral votes, the economy isn't doing that well under Obama but it is enough for him to win by.  Not all sectors are doing well but certain are doing quite well and people personally like Obama.

[Lincoln Republican]

Romney will win.

Obama is the new Jimmy Carter.

[cavalcade]

Obama.  Romney hasn't led in a single Wisconsin poll since August or a single credible (non-Gravis/ARG/WAA/Purple) Ohio poll since May.  All the polling would have to be missing a lot of Romney voters in at least one of those states, which is possible but unlikely.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I felt like this would a 2004 election since Day 1. Obama will be reelected with a slim lead just like Bush in 2004. Romney is the GOP version of John Kerry; the boring, moderate, yet most electable candidate from his party. The GOP has a better shot in 2016 as long as Hillary doesn't run.

Kerry isn't a moderate.

Kerry was basically a DLC-backed candidate against Dean.

Irony is that despite perception of an "uelectable liberal", Dean's record as Governor of Vermont was fairly moderate and Kerry's record is far more liberal than Dean's.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I think Obama will win by the narrowest of margins.  Though, the late break toward the challenger and the aforementioned state poll lag could be very real.  If Obama wins, he won't get above the 280 mark.