If he loses, it just comes to show that giving up on social issues isn't the solution if we become a threatened minority after this election.
There are two reasons Smith is doing as well as he is. A) His ads from the amount of money he has spent and B) the fact Casey once again is not even trying to run
However I think it will end up being just like every other Bob Casey Jr. race. Due to his name recognition he will pull it out and massively overperform what the polls say. I'm calling an 8 point Casey victory.