PPP NC: Tied.

[Phony Moderate]

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

Who needs facts?

I don't think you have any right to discuss what other people need....

[krazen1211]

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

Who needs facts?

I don't think you have any right to discuss what other people need....

It's really funny to see people like you ignore what's actually happening on the ground when your own obama fellow tells people to look at whats actually happening on the ground.

[Lief 🗽]

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

No, the poll says he's up 15% in early voting.

He would have to be winning roughly all the D vote and 2/3 of the NP vote.  Outlier possibly, or a really bad weighting. 

Current NC Early Vote Party Reg   
Dem   50.7%
Rep   30.5%
None/Oth   18.8%

From that, it looks like he just needs to be winning about half of independents and 85% of Democrats, which is reasonable.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

Who needs facts?

I don't think you have any right to discuss what other people need....

It's really funny to see people like you ignore what's actually happening on the ground when your own obama fellow tells people to look at whats actually happening on the ground.

Oh, you mean like how Obama has a massive advantage in campaign offices & GOtV?

[dspNY]

Lief, it is very reasonable that Obama could be losing indies by 7-10% but winning 90% of the Dems this year since a higher % of the Dem vote this time around is black (fewer dixiecrats).

I'm not optimistic that will hold, and Romney will probably win by a couple of points. However, NC has become a permanent swing state, which in the long term, is bad for the GOP

[krazen1211]

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

Who needs facts?

I don't think you have any right to discuss what other people need....

It's really funny to see people like you ignore what's actually happening on the ground when your own obama fellow tells people to look at whats actually happening on the ground.

Oh, you mean like how Obama has a massive advantage in campaign offices & GOtV?

No, I mean exactly what JJ said just above. Can you read?

[Yank2133]

PublicPolicyPolling@ppppolls
77% of North Carolina Democrats say they're 'very excited' to vote this fall, 65% of Republicans:

Yeah.....so much for lack of enthusiasm.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

Who needs facts?

I don't think you have any right to discuss what other people need....

It's really funny to see people like you ignore what's actually happening on the ground when your own obama fellow tells people to look at whats actually happening on the ground.

Oh, you mean like how Obama has a massive advantage in campaign offices & GOtV?

No, I mean exactly what JJ said just above. Can you read?

I was assuming (wrongly, apparently) that you had some fragile connection to reality. Now, the question is: can you read? ↓

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

No, the poll says he's up 15% in early voting.

He would have to be winning roughly all the D vote and 2/3 of the NP vote.  Outlier possibly, or a really bad weighting. 

Current NC Early Vote Party Reg   
Dem   50.7%
Rep   30.5%
None/Oth   18.8%

From that, it looks like he just needs to be winning about half of independents and 85% of Democrats, which is reasonable.

[Lief 🗽]

Lief, it is very reasonable that Obama could be losing indies by 7-10% but winning 90% of the Dems this year since a higher % of the Dem vote this time around is black (fewer dixiecrats).

Yes, that's another possibility (and more probable than my hypothetical breakdown, now that I think about it). But either way, the idea that Obama is winning the early vote, so far, by 17% is pretty reasonable.

[Landslide Lyndon]

PublicPolicyPolling@ppppolls
77% of North Carolina Democrats say they're 'very excited' to vote this fall, 65% of Republicans:

Yeah.....so much for lack of enthusiasm.

No wonder JJ hates PPP so much. They always expose him for the fraud he is.

[Yank2133]

BTW, how many new voters is the GOP actually getting out there? Because honestly, it doesn't really matter if your getting people who were going to vote for you anyway to the polls early.

[krazen1211]

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

Who needs facts?

I don't think you have any right to discuss what other people need....

It's really funny to see people like you ignore what's actually happening on the ground when your own obama fellow tells people to look at whats actually happening on the ground.

Oh, you mean like how Obama has a massive advantage in campaign offices & GOtV?

No, I mean exactly what JJ said just above. Can you read?

I was assuming (wrongly, apparently) that you had some fragile connection to reality. Now, the question is: can you read? ↓

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

No, the poll says he's up 15% in early voting.

He would have to be winning roughly all the D vote and 2/3 of the NP vote.  Outlier possibly, or a really bad weighting. 

Current NC Early Vote Party Reg   
Dem   50.7%
Rep   30.5%
None/Oth   18.8%

From that, it looks like he just needs to be winning about half of independents and 85% of Democrats, which is reasonable.

Yes, I can. Obviously, you cannot, because if you did, you would know that early voting was 57% D this time 4 years ago.

[J. J.]

Actually, the house effect that Silver thought was gone from PPP is probably still there.  I was trying to get some information on the weighting, and found this:  http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-flawed-model-josh-jordan

PPP still probably has that lean, though I would not be surprised if it was below D+3. 

[Yank2133]

That author doesn't even understand how Silver's model works......but whatever helps you sleep at night, J.J.

[J. J.]

That author doesn't even understand how Silver's model works......but whatever helps you sleep at night, J.J.

The actual early voting results do. 

Silver had a measure and thought, later, it was wrong.  Maybe he had it right the first time. 

[DrScholl]

This is essentially where NC has been most of the year. Looking at the internals, it's possible it could go either way.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

That author doesn't even understand how Silver's model works......but whatever helps you sleep at night, J.J.

The actual early voting results do. 

Silver had a measure and thought, later, it was wrong.  Maybe he had it right the first time. 

Yeah JJ, use the National Review to make your point, that'd definitely help in an argument.

[Cliffy]

All this proves is PPP is willing to fall on the sword this go around, which shouldn't be surprised since they are a KOS poll and will be picked up again in the future. 

This poll reinforces that their polls in the other swing state are garbage, NC is safe.  Keep dreaming.  This site may be the most delusional on the interwebs.......

[J. J.]

That author doesn't even understand how Silver's model works......but whatever helps you sleep at night, J.J.

The actual early voting results do. 

Silver had a measure and thought, later, it was wrong.  Maybe he had it right the first time. 

Yeah JJ, use the National Review to make your point, that'd definitely help in an argument.

No, Silver's initial argument was that PPP had a lean to the Democrats.  Then he said that it was much lower.  I don't think it is as low as he thought it was. 

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

All this proves is PPP is willing to fall on the sword this go around, which shouldn't be surprised since they are a KOS poll and will be picked up again in the future. 

This poll reinforces that their polls in the other swing state are garbage, NC is safe.  Keep dreaming.  This site may be the most delusional on the interwebs.......

PPP - NC, 10-26-08: Obama + 1
Result: Obama + 0

PPP - NC, 10-31-10: Burr + 12
Result: Burr + 12

PPP - NC, 10-26-08: Hagan + 3
Result: Hagan + 8

PPP - NC, 10-26-08: Perdue + 3
Result: Perdue + 3

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

That author doesn't even understand how Silver's model works......but whatever helps you sleep at night, J.J.

The actual early voting results do. 

Silver had a measure and thought, later, it was wrong.  Maybe he had it right the first time. 

Yeah JJ, use the National Review to make your point, that'd definitely help in an argument.

No, Silver's initial argument was that PPP had a lean to the Democrats.  Then he said that it was much lower.  I don't think it is as low as he thought it was. 

I think Nate Silver has a better grip on poll accuracy than a guy who thinks the Bradley Effect happened in 2008.

[Badger]

Just my gut, but this latest batch of PPP polls seems a point or two Obama MOEish, even beyond PPP's slight (per Silver) D house bias.

NC still obviously close and not ready for "conceeding".

[Likely Voter]

Obama certainly isn't giving up. They are still spending money in NC, $1.8M over the next week. Romney campaign and the Romney SuperPAC are spending more, $2M.

[Ljube]

Come on people! CNN moved NC to Romney's column.

[Devils30]

Rasmussen had Romney up 6 in NC- still far less than 2004 even with its house effect. I'd bet on Mitt winning something along the lines of 51-47.5 here.