German unemployment highest since 1930's

[minionofmidas]

Compared with last October, some 650,000 fewer people were out of work, the agency said.

I get mentioned in a press article!

[Hash]

French unemployment is down too this month, unlike it's little increase last month.
However, there's a few people I'd like to see unemployed right now in FR. *cough* *cough* SNCF *cough* *cough*

[Tender Branson]

I think it's worth noting that German unemployment has dipped below 3 Mio. in October.

BERLIN

Germany's jobless rate fell to 7.2 percent in October and the number of people out of work dropped below 3 million for the first time in 16 years, government figures showed Thursday - evidence that the financial crisis has yet to find its way through to the labor market.

The Federal Labor Agency said the unadjusted unemployment rate in Europe's biggest economy declined from 7.4 percent in September.

The number of Germans registered as unemployed fell by 84,000 to 2.997 million - the first time it has been below 3 million since November 1992.

German unemployment has been sinking since it peaked at 12.6 percent in February 2005 - with a post-reunification record of 5.216 million people jobless.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/10/30/ap5624775.html



http://www.pub.arbeitsamt.de/hst/services/statistik/000000/html/start/karten/aloq_kreis.html

[Franzl]

You gotta love Southern Germany...

[Tender Branson]

You gotta love Southern Germany...

Austria is not much different. There were about 203.000 registered unemployed, for a rate of about 5.0%. According to Eurostat it's 3.2%, the 3rd lowest rate in the EU.

[Franzl]

You gotta love Southern Germany...

Austria is not much different. There were about 203.000 registered unemployed, for a rate of about 5.0%. According to Eurostat it's 3.2%, the 3rd lowest rate in the EU.

Do you think we could get you to take the east states away from us?

[Tender Branson]

You gotta love Southern Germany...

Austria is not much different. There were about 203.000 registered unemployed, for a rate of about 5.0%. According to Eurostat it's 3.2%, the 3rd lowest rate in the EU.

Do you think we could get you to take the east states away from us?

No. Maybe Poland is interested ?

[Хahar 🤔]

Well, the Wall's still around.

[Tender Branson]

Well, the Wall's still around.

Indeed !

[Хahar 🤔]

Well, the Wall's still around.

Indeed !

Those two states should secede and leave the North German Confederation to iself.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, the Wall's still around.

Indeed !

Those two states should secede and leave the North German Confederation to iself.

Why? Bavarians have recently started a process of integration into Germany... they even have a coalition government now.

[Tender Branson]

Still down in November:

"BERLIN (AP) — Germany's Federal Labor Agency says the country's unemployment rate dipped to 7.1 percent in November.

The jobless rate in Europe's biggest economy was down from 7.2 percent in October. A total of 2.988 million people were registered as unemployed — 8,000 fewer than a month earlier.

The figures Thursday suggest that the economic crisis has yet to find its way through to the labor market. However, economists expect that to happen in the coming months."

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iBHj6-nq40ytTE9Ld-K-07KiqTLwD94N6C480

...

I wonder if or when the US will overtake Germany ...

[Tender Branson]

LOL ! EUROSTAT is going crazy.

In their latest report they announced that Austria has now (October) the second-lowest Unemployment rate in the European Union, at 3%.

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/pls/portal/docs/PAGE/PGP_PRD_CAT_PREREL/PGE_CAT_PREREL_YEAR_2008/PGE_CAT_PREREL_YEAR_2008_MONTH_11/3-28112008-EN-BP.PDF

But how is this possible ?

According to the Austrian Ministry of Labor, about 4.142.000 people were registered as employed in October and there were about 203.000 registered unemployed, for a total labor force of 4.345.000, for an unemployment rate of 4.7%

http://www.bmwa.gv.at/NR/rdonlyres/AB1731C7-8BC2-4E9A-9851-D95F800936E2/0/ArbeitsmarktdatenOktober2008.pdf

How can they estimate a rate that is 1.7% lower ?

[Tender Branson]

Unemployment is finally on the rise in Austria as well.

The new December numbers were released yesterday and the total number of registered unemployed rose by 8.2% compared with a year ago to about 287.000.

Currently the unemployment rate is at 7.8%, allthough EUROSTAT estimates it at 3.0% (different methodology -> see previous post).

In my home state of Salzburg, the number even jumped by 23.6% compared with the previous year (the highest increase in Austria), but it still has the lowest unemployment rate of all states, at 4.6% ...

New December numbers for the US are out next Friday, for Germany next Wednesday.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=a0b39fd4-87ab-4382-8fd3-126639c20e40

[Tender Branson]

Registered Unemployment here in Austria is up by 24% compared with a year ago.

301.695 people were unemployed at the end of February, for a national unemployment rate of 8.3% (Eurostat: 4.0% - January)

Youth unemployment is up 36% sompared with February 2008.

...

As for Germany, there were 3.551.926 unemployed persons in February, for a national unemployment rate of 8.5% (Eurostat: 7.3% - January). The number is down by 65.517 persons from February 2008.

[Tender Branson]

Latest unemployment figures from Germany and Austria (March 2009):

Germany

3.586.000 unemployed (up 34.000 compared with Feb. '09, up 78.000 compared with March '08)
National Unemployment Rate: 8.6% (+0.1% compared with Feb. '09, +0.2% from March '08)
ILO Unemployment Rate: ~7.5%

Austria

271.000 unemployed (down 31.000 compared with Feb. '09, up 60.000 compared with March '08)
National Unemployment Rate: ~7.5% (-0.8% compared with Feb. '09, +1.7% from March '08)
ILO Unemployment Rate: ~4.0%

[Tender Branson]

Detailed numbers for Austria out today:

271.127 unemployed (+60.671 compared with March 2008, or up by 28.8%)
National unemployment rate: 7.5%
Eurostat/ILO unemployment rate: 4.5% (February 2009, second lowest in the EU-27)

Unemployment in my home state of Salzburg:

12.905 unemployed (+4.862 compared with March 2008, or up by 60.5%)
Salzburg unemployment rate: 5.2% (lowest in Austria)

[Tender Branson]

Remember this ?

The number is now about half of that and the rate is now down to 6% in May (5% in Western Germany and 10% in Eastern Germany).

[Beet]

Yes, well, the other side of the coin is Spain, which was doing marvelously (too marvelously, as it turns out) in 2005.

Consider.



Which leads to...



As explained by...



Of course, the relative gains in Spain's competitiveness you see at the very end of the chart above are cancelled out by its high inflation rate, which runs at 3-3.5%, over the euro zone average of 2.7%.

Now let's look at the size of the export sector.



Holy mackarolie.

Of course, Germany’s economy is a lot bigger (but not THAT much bigger), so let’s look at the relative shares of Spanish GDP and exports as compared with their German equivalents.



And there you have it folks. Why Spain is screwed (or needs 20% deflation). Alternately, why German workers should get paid more.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Is anyone suprised?

SOCIALISM DOES NOT WORK

The current German government is considered center-right.

[Tender Branson]

Remember this ?

Is now down to 5.3%, from 11.9% in the article.

[Franknburger]

@Beet: Great analysis!
However, there is one factor to add, namely Spain's and Germany's geographic position. Germany has for most of the 1990s and the beginning of the 21st century been suffering from the transformation crisis in Eastern Europe. [In 1994, I did a study on German trade with Bulgaria. Between 1989 and 1992, German exports for Bulgaria had decreased by half a billion DM, which had resulted in a loss of some 50,000 German jobs. And that was just Bulgaria..].
Recent strong growth across most of Eastern Europe and Russia, or, putting it differently the fact that Germany does now start to benefit from its central location within Europe, are another cause of regained economic strength.

Spain, OTOH, lies on the European periphery. It can (and has to some extent in the past) make up for this by a stronger focus on trans-Atlantic and trans-Mediterranean trade. However, the US economy isn't going as well as the moment as it used to, and the same applies to some (though not all) South-American countries. And the Arab spring has left its trace on North African economies..

-----

Unaware of this thread (which had been sleeping for quite some time) I have since early this year published a number of German labour market maps and background analysis in the "International Elections" sub-forum, and encourage everybody interested in the German economy and labour market to take a look:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169141.0

The next unemployment figures (and map updates) are due this weekend.